how many insurgents?

[Papa Deuce]

Has anybody heard any credible estimates of the number of insurgents in Iraq?

Seems like they have an unlimited supply, but realistically, can there be 500, 1000, 5,000?

 

[Elwood Blues]

Is this a trick question?

500?

 

[Dan Murphy]

Estimate is 3,000 or so in Fallujah.

 

[Papa Deuce]

Originally posted by Elwood Blues
Is this a trick question?

500?

Obviously the 500 number was low, but I also went as high as 5000.

I really don't know what the estimates are. I'm just wondering how many of them will need to be killed or arrested before the morale of the remaining insurgents gets low enough that peace can rule the streets of Iraq.

 

[missyc]

Originally posted by Dan Murphy
Estimate is 3,000 or so in Fallujah.

Yes, this is what I heard also.

 

[Elwood Blues]

Originally posted by Papa Deuce
Obviously the 500 number was low, but I also went as high as 5000.

I really don't know what the estimates are. I'm just wondering how many of them will need to be killed or arrested before the morale of the remaining insurgents gets low enough that peace can rule the streets of Iraq.

My reply came across a bit rude. My apologies.

 

[Keli]

I think the number fluctuates constantly, depending on how many foreign terrorists are in Iraq at any given time. It appears to me that they supplement the native insurgents numbers.

 

[vernon]

I really don't know what the estimates are. I'm just wondering how many of them will need to be killed or arrested before the morale of the remaining insurgents gets low enough that peace can rule the streets of Iraq.

The problem with this line of thinking is that everytime we kill an innocent Iraqi (and they only have to be "innocent" in the eyes of their family, this problem is also true when we kill some of the "guilty" Iraqis as well) we risk creating another 10 insurgents/freedom fighters from previously non violence inclined Iraqis. The maths is if we kill one innocent for every 10 "insurgents/freedom fighters" the net result is the same amount of "insurgents/freedom fighters". The longer it takes us to come to a solution, the more the Iraqi people are going to feel like an occupied population as opposed to a liberated population.

Personally, given the numbers of supporters of the Ba'athist party and the huge numbers of Iraqi military that evaporated away when we invaded, I think the number of potential terrorist/insurgants/freedom fighters runs into many tens of thousands. When it only takes a handful to carry out a suicide attack that can kill or maim many of our troops I think it will be almost impossible to deflate their morale enough that they just give up, we are dealing with a group of people who think that to die in a "Jihad" , which is how they will view any conflict against occupying forces, guarantees not only their own journey to Paradise but also guarantees that journey for all their immediate family.

I can't see an easy peaceful end anytime soon.

P.S. I use the phrase terrorist/insurgents/freedom fighters not because I think they are freedom fighters, but because THEY think they're freedom fighters. It is important to understand that their view of themselves is different to our views of them. They think they are defending their homeland from an aggressive invading force. It is important to understand that mind set, someone who feels they are defending their homeland is inclined to remain hostile for a lot longer than someone who opposes a view or regime in a far away land.

 

[JPN4265]

Originally posted by Papa Deuce
Has anybody heard any credible estimates of the number of insurgents in Iraq?

Seems like they have an unlimited supply, but realistically, can there be 500, 1000, 5,000?

I'll play your game if you call them what they are: Islamic Terrorist!

 

[mikeymars]

Originally posted by Papa Deuce
Has anybody heard any credible estimates of the number of insurgents in Iraq?

Not sure what the current estimates are, but I can assure you there are at least three less of them today:

 

[chadfromdallas]

ok, come on now. Edit the picture out.

 

[mikeymars]

Originally posted by chadfromdallas
ok, come on now. Edit the picture out.

If you insist, but let's not forget war isn't pretty.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Originally posted by mikeymars
Not sure what the current estimates are, but I can assure you there are at least three less of them today:

 

[chadfromdallas]

Originally posted by mikeymars
If you insist, but let's not forget war isn't pretty.

Yup, a lot of innocent people will be killed in this mess and the last thing I want to do is wake up, check the dis and see some dead bodies.

 

[powellrj]

I know that my DS tells me they are seeing more chechen rebels fighting than there were before.

 

[Pooh93]

Well said Vernon.

 

[Serena]

War isn't pretty, but the dis is not the place to see dead people. Besides it's disrespectful of them and their families.