How is FP+ making other lines longer?

[mjr0483]

I have ready many posts bashing FP+ and how it is making all the other non-headliner lines longer. Short comings of the program aside, how is it making other lines longer?

Trust me I remember the days of just walking on Figment, Haunted Mansion and Pirates.

It seems crazy busy this week and I have been looking at MDE wait times and it is not a pretty sight. Something is afoot, but can it really be blamed on FP+?

Specifics please because I really would like to know.
Is it simply people are not getting 2 or 3 legacy FP for the headliners and seeking out other rides, any rides? I never remember Figment being this popular.

 

[mom2rtk]

Lines that used to be standby only (HM, POTC, Small World, Figment, etc.) now are slowed as FP returns enter ahead of standby.

 

[sethschroeder]

But are people FP+ rides they wouldn't have even ridden the past? That is the question I think.

If a ride can handle 100 people a year ago it didn't shrink to 50 now so that means more people need to be riding. Correct?

 

[mom2rtk]

But are people FP+ rides they wouldn't have even ridden the past? That is the question I think.

If a ride can handle 100 people a year ago it didn't shrink to 50 now so that means more people need to be riding. Correct?

At Epcot and DHS, the choices are tiered. And you cannot select less than 3. So if you only want to do Test Track, you cannot choose Soarin or Maelstrom as your second or third ride. Some are choosing these non-headliners and just not showing up. But plenty of others are keeping those ride appointments for things they might have bypassed before.

 

[JeremyGNJ]

But are people FP+ rides they wouldn't have even ridden the past? That is the question I think.

If a ride can handle 100 people a year ago it didn't shrink to 50 now so that means more people need to be riding. Correct?

I assume you that Disney has not found any way to increase or decrease the "number of riders per hour". If the SB lines are longer it means one of two things (or likely a combination of both).

1. The crowds are actually bigger.
2. You have to wait in line because more people are utilizing the FP+ system.

 

[Shaden]

The lines are longer because of FP+ being available for more attractions, and more people using FP+.

There is also some interesting theory about the idea of "virtual" guests. That because more people are using FP+, they are essentially standing in 2 lines at once.

If you follow this logic, it naturally has a very large impact on rides.

This plays out in on of 2 ways.

The first is that people will spend the same number of hours in the park regardless of what they do, in this case, expanding the use of FP+ greatly increases the SB lines because the "Virtual guest" plays out perfectly.
Its great that people get to FP rides, and so those waits are shorter, but then they go and pop into another line right after anyway. It doesn't clear out the parks or move the line faster, it actually adds to the lines.

The second is that people stay in the parks until they have ridden a certain selection of rides... In this case people would theoretically get through their rides a little faster, and then leave the park. But this doesn't actually speed up the lines, because while they are FPing a ride, it just makes other people wait longer.

The reality is probably somewhere between the two, some people will leave the park quicker, but as long as they are doing the same number of rides, it doesn't shorten the lines at all. But as long as SOME people fall into the first category, and I would think its a pretty big group who do, lines are going to get longer.

 

[Shaden]

I assume you that Disney has not found any way to increase or decrease the "number of riders per hour". If the SB lines are longer it means one of two things (or likely a combination of both).

1. The crowds are actually bigger.
2. You have to wait in line because more people are utilizing the FP+ system.

1. The crowds are not bigger, there has been a 1.5% increase in attendance, nothing that can account for the changes in the wait times ... the analysis is here by josh at easywdw

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...times-at-disney-world-attractions/#more-13129

 

[smbowtie]

Everything is theory and speculation. I think it is just the fact that more people are in the parks than in a long time.

I have seen the crowds grow since 2006 when we were there and walked on everything in EPCOT, even the headliners, multiple times with no wait.

 

[JeremyGNJ]

1. The crowds are not bigger, there has been a 1.5% increase in attendance, nothing that can account for the changes in the wait times ... the analysis is here by josh at easywdw

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...times-at-disney-world-attractions/#more-13129

Did you just make that number up? Disney doesn't give crowd numbers.

 

[Shaden]

Did you just make that number up? Disney doesn't give crowd numbers.

No I did not make this number up, this comes from Josh at Easy WDW.

 

[JimmyV]

Assume that you are the 501st person in a line that has 1000 people in it and no FP is in use. You will be the 501st person to board. Now, assume that FP is in place, you do not have one, but 25% of the people wishing to ride the ride do. All 1000 people arrive at the same time as before. There are 500 people in front of you, 125 with a FP and 375 who do not. All of those people board ahead of you, but they did before, so there is no change. But of the 499 people who arrive after you, 125 of them get ahead of you using their FP, and 374 get in line behind you just as before. So even though you arrived at the ride at the same time as before, you are now the 626th person to board. All 1000 people take the same amount of time to board because the ride cannot make people board any faster or slower than before. So the overall impact is negated. But as to you individually, you have been slowed down.

Also, FP+ allows returnees to cut off the SB line starting as soon as the park opens. So even if you are the 20th person in line after RD, you could be the 100th person to board if 80 FP people get in the FP line at 9:00. With popular rides, even these early hours are booked by FP+ people. Before, your earliest FP returnees started to board around 10:00. So early arrivers were uninterrupted for an hour. No more.

 

[MrInfinity]

The lines are longer because of FP+ being available for more attractions, and more people using FP+.

A guest now using FP for a ride that did not used to have FP does make the line longer -- but does not the average wait longer. I'll try to explain this with an example. Picture 5 people in a line: Al, Bob, Charlie, Dan, and Erkle. They line up like this:

ABCDE

Say the ride processes 1 rider per minute (just as an example)

A will get on immediately
B will get on in 1 min
C will get on in 2 min
D will get on in 3 min
E will get on in 4 min

Total time waited: 10 min. Average wait: 10/5 = 2 min.

Now say Xavier comes to ride. He goes to the end of the line, and waits 5 min.

X will get on in 5 min

Total time waited: 15 min. Average wait: 15/6 = 2.5 min.

But now, with FP+, Xavier, a person who never used to pull fast passes, pulls one for a ride that he never needed one for. Instead of waiting 5 min, he goes to the front of the line. As a result, everyone else has to wait for him.

Now A waits 1 min (1 min worse)
Now B waits 2 min (1 min worse)
Now C waits 3 min (1 min worse)
Now D waits 4 min (1 min worse)
Now E waits 5 min (1 min worse)
Now X gets on immediately (5 min better)

Total time waited: 15 min. Average wait: 15/6 = 2.5 min.

So you see, Xavier pulling a FP+ to a ride that he would have used to just wait standby for, seemed to make the waits 1 min longer for the 5 guests in line. But in reality, Xavier got on an equal amount quicker.

Thus, you have the lines being longer, even tho your average wait time is unchanged, for people that did not use to use Fast Passes ever (the majority of guests), are now consistently using them 3 times per day.

Rides you wait standby for will indeed take longer, but on the flip side, you get to go on 3 rides by an equal amount faster.

The people who are most put off by the new system are the ppl that used to successfully pull many fast passes in a day. Now, they get 3 only, and so to them, having to wait in standby ~at all~ given they were able to avoid it for many years while everyone else waited, is their worst nightmare coming true.

 

[JeremyGNJ]

FuzzyLogic and JimmyV's description (though I believe from opposite angles), shows EXACTLY what fast pass is doing.

Disney is 'leveling the playing field'. But more than that, they've added something better than before. The ability of people to skip the line on rides and attractions that THEY care about...not just the ones that "most people" care about.

 

[JimmyV]

A guest now using FP for a ride that did not used to have FP does make the line longer -- but does not the average wait longer.

Pretty much the same analytic as mine. Only, instead of giving a FP to Xavier, now, with the increased usage of FP, give one to Will, Xavier, Yolanda and Zoe, and place them all in front of A, B, C and D. All of a sudden, A-D have a wait time that has doubled even though the average has not changed.

 

[MrInfinity]

Its great that people get to FP rides, and so those waits are shorter, but then they go and pop into another line right after anyway. It doesn't clear out the parks or move the line faster, it actually adds to the lines.

I think I've found why simply giving more guests FP+'s does not increase the average wait time despite your virtual-wait theory.

You are asserting that in my example above, since X gets thru the line 5 min faster, he then goes and gets in some other line 5 min sooner, thereby making that line longer. ~But~ what you are omitting, is that had X not gotten his FP, and just waited standby instead, then, ABCD and E would have gotten on 1 minute faster ~each~ and they each would have then gotten in some other line 1 minute sooner.

So there is no net gain to other lines by X, a person who never used to take FPs, suddenly taking FPs now.

The difference is that ABCD and E are now having to wait for X, whereas before they never did.

WHO is having to wait is changing. The standby lines are longer. But the average time spent by all guests in line is the same.

Aside from the 1.5% growth, which is the only thing that affects the total wait.

 

[Disneylover99]

Disney is 'leveling the playing field'. But more than that, they've added something better than before. The ability of people to skip the line on rides and attractions that THEY care about...not just the ones that "most people" care about.

That's assuming people only care about a total of 3 rides or attractions. That's not exactly something that is better than before.

 

[lazer]

Everything is theory and speculation. I think it is just the fact that more people are in the parks than in a long time. I have seen the crowds grow since 2006 when we were there and walked on everything in EPCOT, even the headliners, multiple times with no wait.

This. Have seen the crowds grow increasingly since 2006 too, we go in the fall and never waited for anything. The waits have been getting longer and longer. I always chalked it up to people changing when they go and planning their park days better and therefore making the most of their time there. By crowds I should clarify that I mainly base it on wait times! So many theories

 

[JeremyGNJ]

I think I've found why simply giving more guests FP+'s does not increase the average wait time despite your virtual-wait theory.

You are asserting that in my example above, since X gets thru the line 5 min faster, he then goes and gets in some other line 5 min sooner, thereby making that line longer. ~But~ what you are omitting, is that had X not gotten his FP, and just waited standby instead, then, ABCD and E would have gotten on 1 minute faster ~each~ and they each would have then gotten in some other line 1 minute sooner.

So there is no net gain to other lines by X, a person who never used to take FPs, suddenly taking FPs now.

The difference is that ABCD and E are now having to wait for X, whereas before they never did.

WHO is having to wait is changing. The standby lines are longer. But the average time spent by all guests in line is the same.

Aside from the 1.5% growth, which is the only thing that affects the total wait.

Or said another way:

The ONE person who knew how to work the FP- system, might spend a total of 1 hour in line for their whole day.

And 8 people had to stand in line for a total of 3 hours a day.

Now they all have to stand in line for a total of 2.7hours a day. However they now ALL get the pleasure of skipping the line for 3 attractions, which gives the perception of a better experience for "most". IT also allows those 8 people to better schedule their meals etc.

 

[Shaden]

I think I've found why simply giving more guests FP+'s does not increase the average wait time despite your virtual-wait theory.

You are asserting that in my example above, since X gets thru the line 5 min faster, he then goes and gets in some other line 5 min sooner, thereby making that line longer. ~But~ what you are omitting, is that had X not gotten his FP, and just waited standby instead, then, ABCD and E would have gotten on 1 minute faster ~each~ and they each would have then gotten in some other line 1 minute sooner.

So there is no net gain to other lines by X, a person who never used to take FPs, suddenly taking FPs now.

The difference is that ABCD and E are now having to wait for X, whereas before they never did.

WHO is having to wait is changing. The standby lines are longer. But the average time spent by all guests in line is the same.

Aside from the 1.5% growth, which is the only thing that affects the total wait.

This is not exactly correct, you make some good points ... You might be correct that average wait times are about the same, though I would suggest they are actually longer due to the virtual rider effect, more people are effectively standing in 2 lines at the same time. But even if average wait times were about the same, they are only offset BECAUSE you get to skip 3 lines. But when you ARE waiting in line, you are waiting much longer, optically, I don't think this works. Would you rather wait in 4 20 min lines, or skip 2 and then wait in 2 40 min lines ?

Really its all about the two cases I posted.

Instead of thinking about this like people in the parks, think about it like riders in the parks. Each person in the park = a certain amount of 'riders' in the park.

Now for some people they aren't going to increase the number of rides they go after, so FP+ doesn't change the lines with them because you are right about how wait times balance out ... generally speaking (you forget that the number isn't really finite and is actually a calculation of expected waits etc, of course that's where the "rider theory" works so well)

For each attraction a person will ride, they are 1 person X (number of attractions) = # of "riders"

Ok, so if I am willing to spend 10 hours in the parks regardless, and I used to be able to ride 10 rides, but now you are letting me skip 3 lines, I am now going to try and ride 13 rides, meaning now I am 13 "riders"

Now you might be right about the balancing out of lines and "riders"
Because some people are now skipping lines they couldn't before through FP, those lines back up, which in the end means I still end up being 10 Riders. But in that case it means the waits I would have waited for those 3 rides just get added to my other 7. Meaning those waits are (all things equal) increasing 50% . Even if this is the case, I think this is a bad thing.

IF FP+ means I am willing to actually try to ride more rides on the other hand ... then I really do become more "riders" ... and I think this might be the case, even if It means I try to cram in one more ride than I used to, maybe it means I stay in the park a little longer, maybe by forcing the spacing out of FP+s it keeps people in the park a little longer, or makes people hop on another ride while waiting for that last FP+ ... this will have a dramatic impact on increasing ride times.

 

[JimmyV]

This.

No. Actually it is not "this". If you go to Touring Plans and look at the historical data (not theory) concerning wait times, you will find that rides that used FP- and now use FP+ may have very comparable wait times in relation to 2014. But if you look at rides that did not use FP- but now utilize FP+, the wait times have increased significantly. This cannot be attributed to an overall growth in attendance, (which no data supports). If crowd growth were the answer, then the rising tide would lift all boats. But the exponential line growth at IASW, HM, POTC and Spaceship Earth tell a different story.