How fast will 12/24/05 cruise sell out?

[shelly3girls]

We are planning a large family trip for this cruise. So far 16 of us are booked. The only family left to book is my DH's brother (family of 4). They cannot book until 1/24 b/c they are using DVC points. I know they could rent out their points, but DBIL is not willing to do so, so it is out of the question.
The problem is that as of two weeks ago there was plenty of availability in all categories but cat. 7. They really wanted a cat. 8, but now cat. 8 is sold out. There are only a couple cat. 9 and 10 available and 4-6 are all on guaranteed status. I guess many people booked on board this year's Christmas cruise! So my question is, how likely do you think this cruise is to sell out before the 24th? Do many people tend to cancel as it gets closer? Should I be worried about the kids club filling up and preventing them from booking at all?
Please help, we are really starting to worry!

 

[jel0511]

It is entirely possible, though unlikely. The other issue that you didn't mention is that if the sailing is that filled up with cash guests, DCL might close off that sailing to DVC members who wish to use points. DCL is completely within its right to now allow point ressies, and it has happened on more than one occassion. DCL does only allow a certain number of points ressies per cruise, but if the cruise is at a certain capacity, they can turn off point ressies completely.

 

[shelly3girls]

DCL does only allow a certain number of points ressies per cruise, but if the cruise is at a certain capacity, they can turn off point ressies completely.

Wow, didn't know that! I guess it is one of those things they don't really want you to know. Thanks for the info, I guess at this point we just have to say our prayers.

 

[MarkLem]

For my family of 2 audlts and 3 kids, the Disney website reservation site shows it's sold out! The only cruise date in December 05 that came up was Dec 10. Of course that was putting all 5 of us in, which would only show cat 4.

 

[jel0511]

For my family of 2 audlts and 3 kids, the Disney website reservation site shows it's sold out! The only cruise date in December 05 that came up was Dec 10. Of course that was putting all 5 of us in, which would only show cat 4.

The only problem with the DCL website is that it doesn't show cabins that are currently in guarantee status, you do need to call DCL for that. For our West Coast Cruise we're on, the DCL website shows no availability, though if you call DCL, there are several categories that are showing as guarantee status. If DCL is still taking bookings from DVC for that cruise, your family can definately book a guarantee status for any cabin category if that's all that is available.

 

[jel0511]

I just got off the phone with DVC Member Services. I wanted to clarify my previous comment. DVC CAN NOT book a room on guarantee status with DCL, they are not allowed to. They must book a reserved stateroom, and if all there is left is guarantee status, the boat is "sold out" to DVC. DCL did allow an exception to this rule for the West Coast sailings due to their overwhelming popularity, but the CM I spoke to said she didn't think DCL would make another exception like that.

 

[Mary Anne]

Personally, I think if they are booking at the at their 11 month mark, it should be OK. What they seem do is upgrade those with a guarantee. Do not expect any guarantee with a DVC booking.

We've never had a problem at the 11 month mark booking with the DVC.

 

[shelly3girls]

Thank you everyone for your comments/help. I do feel better now, we plan to call as soon as they open on the correct day to book.
Thanks again!