DW & I went for BLT because of $ and wanting home resort priority there. You need to decide how to weigh cost (purchase & dues) and home resort booking window + point charts for you personally. My considerations:
1) I LOVE the Contemporary since I was a little kid- the Choo Choo goes RIGHT THROUGH the hotel!
2) Walk to MK, boat to DHS (& Wilderness Lodge - love their lobby & Whispering Canyon), monorail to Epcot = only bus you HAVE to take is for AK!
3) Most years left on the contract
4) Lowest annual dues
5) Able to finance through Disney with mortgage secured by the timeshare and therefore tax deductible interest (I plan to pay it off early just the same)
6) Point chart- If you could ONLY stay @ your home resort is the point cost for your hypothetical stays compatible with the contract size you are considering? Would you be happy there?
7) Did I mention the monorail?
So, I knew I WANTED to buy @ BLT. I justified my decision with the money. I have 51 August Use Years coming from BLT. If we assume NO INTEREST and the full $112 per point, that works out to about $2.20 per point per use year. Add on $3.67 for 2009 annual dues, and we are talking $5.87 in 2009.
For AKV, there are 49 Use Years left if you get 2008 points included with the contract. 2009 dues are $4.86 per point. If you could get a lowball $80 per point through ROFR (very unlikely), that would be $1.63 per point per year ($80 / 49). Add dues and you are at $6.49 per point per year.
Now lets say you got VWL for $70 / point. I doubt that would pass ROFR, but for arguments sake: You get 34 use years if 2008 points are still on the contract. $70 / 34 = ~$2.06 per point year. Add on 2009 dues of $5.04, and you get $7.10 per point per year!
BWV has higher dues than VWL and the same 34 Use Years, so it looks even less attractive to me by the numbers.
So assuming you plan to use the whole contract, can afford the up front cost, and you like BLT, I think it is by FAR the best buy!!!
BTW, if I made any mistakes in my math I apologize in advance
Your math is correct. And for many people this works the best.
For us, we aren't for sure whether to add-on at BLT or just add more points at AKV as one thing we have to figure for us is which is the better deal.
A downside IMHO to BLT is that points at AKV (and others) get you more nights at those resorts than BLT. somewhat negating the lower MF benefit of BLT. You truly are paying for the ability to walk from MK. (which for many people that is a HUGE plus and I completely respect that)
E.G. - In 2010 we are getting a SV 2-BR at AKV for 6 nights for the Disney half-marathon and it will cost us 272 points. If we got 6 nights at BLT LV it would be 27 points more.
Another example using 2010 charts - say you bought the 160 minimum thru Disney and want to book a studio in the summer. At BWV you could get 10 nights (only 2 weekend nights in this) where BLT would get you 8 nights. (standard views for each).
For some people going with whatever has the lower MFs works best, for others it may not, the OP needs to consideration what would work best for his family.