How accurate is touringplans.com?

[Tickla]

Just wondering if touringplans.com is usually accurate in their crowd predictions? We are hoping to go from around Jan.19-26 2007, and people here on the disboard say it is slower than early December, but touringplans.com predict level 6 as compared to level 4in Dec. Anyone have any knowledge on this?

 

[JRawkSteady]

You have to take the holiday weekends into effect. The first and second week of December kids are still in school and there are no holidays (except Chanukah sometimes). I know Jan has MLK day and I think it may be that same week.... if anyone can verify?

 

[Sonno]

Well, they've been collecting and analyzing data from the parks for over a decade now. I think you can trust them and their predictions. I do!

 

[Biscuitsmom31]

Considering that they have July 4th predicted as an 8, I'd say not very accurate.

 

[dixiedizfan]

They're not very accurate. We visited this year the first week of January. Touring Plans had that week listed as 6 and 7's. That week was, at the minimum, 8's and 9's.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Actually they check up on their estimates. Their average absolute error is about 7 minutes away from their peak wait times.

 

[singingpixie]

dixiedizfan- we were there that same week and thought their estimates were high- we barely waited at all! I even gave in and let DBF sleep in because lines weren't growing at all by lunchtime. I wonder if we were just lucky and you were unlucky, and somehow they averaged out right?

 

[Cruz91]

We went the first week of March and Touring Plans was right on the money in a pretty tricky time between President's day and Spring Breaks. The only day we were there when they said it would be busier (7 as opposed to 5's and 6's, I think) it was notably more crowded. Also note that if they're markedly wrong, they fess up and tell you why (what they missed) in their follow up... Not much help in hind sight, but at least you know they're always striving to be more accurate!

 

[Kick Save]

Well, they've been collecting and analyzing data from the parks for over a decade now. I think you can trust them and their predictions. I do!

Bingo...these guys and gals have been doing this for years, they have a LOT of data to go on. Posters here will agree and disagree based on their personal experiences, but those personal epxeriences are a day or two, not years of data. Any number of things could effect the crowd level the day a person is there. Maybe they went to EMH parks where the crowds were heavier? Maybe it rained and chased a few people away? Maybe the person's opinion of "crowded" is different than that of what touringplans.com uses? (Which is an actual wait time scale.) Not saying ignore the opinions of those who offer them, but rather to realize your only getting a limited report when the touringplans people have TONS of data.

I use their crowd calandars as a guage of what to expect, but not as written in stone. Lots of other things could effect your specific day, but the folks at touringplans arm you pretty well for your battle of when to go.

You can substitute "TGM" in the above post for everywhere "touringplans" occurs.

 

[Tickla]

Hey Thanks everyone! I have a better idea what to expect now.

 

[dixiedizfan]

dixiedizfan- we were there that same week and thought their estimates were high- we barely waited at all! I even gave in and let DBF sleep in because lines weren't growing at all by lunchtime. I wonder if we were just lucky and you were unlucky, and somehow they averaged out right?

Can you remember which park you went to on each day? We started off with MK on Monday; it got so packed we left that afternoon. Epcot on Tuesday was VERY crowded, especially EMH. Wednesday at AK was just jam-packed the whole day. And Thursday at MGM was very crowded as well. Friday and Saturday were better. We're going that same week next year, and plan to hit the parks on different days next time!

 

[singingpixie]

We arrived on wednesday and did Epcot and MK that day, MGM and Epcot on thursday, MK and AK on friday.... I think Saturday was MGM and Epcot again. Using fastpass we never waited more than 15 mins I think.

 

[clonetothebone]

Just wondering if touringplans.com is usually accurate in their crowd predictions? We are hoping to go from around Jan.19-26 2007, and people here on the disboard say it is slower than early December, but touringplans.com predict level 6 as compared to level 4in Dec. Anyone have any knowledge on this?

Without using any statistics or any facts of any kind, just think about what you and your family are doing in Dec. vs. Jan. Lots of holiday parties, extra activities at church, baking cookies, buying gifts, getting together with friends and family, etc. in December. January is pretty much wide open so it would make since that more people would have time to travel in January. Just my opinion.

 

[ccgegg]

I think UOG/touringplans.com has nailed it for our previous 3 trips. I'm a statistics freak and I'll take years of data over individual reports anytime. Like a previous poster said, MLK Day is likely influencing the predictions.

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

I think the folks at UOG have the best data to make the best possible educated guess. I have come to trust them when it comes to researching my vacations.

We are planning on being there the exact dates you are planning for in 2007. January 19 is the Friday after MLK Day. I am hoping this means smaller crowds that earlier in that same week. We were there in January of 2006, just a couple of days after MLK Day, and were caught by surprise by the crowd levels. We saw stand-by lines of 110 minutes at Splash. I was shocked (and thankful for FPs). That particlular day was an EMH, and if I recall correctly, one of the few evenings Spectro was scheduled that week.