Housing value risk - interesting article

Kay7979

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This was just forwarded to me by my company. I am including most of the article, but cut out a bit for the sake of brevity.

New Headache for Americans:
Inflated Home Appraisals
By James R. Hagerty and Ruth Simon
From The Wall Street Journal Online

As the housing market cools, Americans are confronting a problem that was easy to ignore during the boom: inflated appraisals of home values.

Critics inside and outside the appraisal business have long warned that many appraisals are unrealistically high. That's partly because generous appraisals help loan officers and mortgage brokers, who often choose the appraiser, complete more deals. If a home is appraised at less than the buyer offered, the deal is likely to fall through.

Inflated appraisals didn't matter much when home prices were rising at double-digit rates, since market values would quickly catch up. Now, however, prices are leveling off in many places and falling in some. Some homeowners are finding that the market value is below what past appraisals led them to believe.

For sellers, that can mean being forced to drop their asking prices. Some people hoping to refinance, meanwhile, may be unable to lock in new loan terms because they have less equity in their homes than they thought. Lenders and mortgage investors, too, could take a hit if it turns out the collateral backing their loan is worth less than expected.

Most homeowners have enough equity in their homes so they don't need to worry much about whether past appraisals were realistic. But dubious appraisals are a risk for the hundreds of thousands of people who in the past few years have bought homes with little or no down payment, or used almost all of their home equity to finance home improvements or other types of spending. That has left these people with little financial cushion to deal with rising interest rates.

"Now it's pay-the-piper time for people, and they're finding out they don't have the value in the house they thought they had," says John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, a Washington-based nonprofit that supports low-income housing.

Appraisals are only opinions, and appraisers often disagree on the value of a home. But wide discrepancies can mean that at least one of the estimates was unrealistic. No one can say how many appraisals are unreliable. Still, Iowa Assistant Attorney General Patrick Madigan, who coordinates with law-enforcement officials from other states on mortgage-related issues, believes the deliberate inflation of appraisals is "widespread" among loans to subprime borrowers, or those with flawed credit histories. Jacquie Doty, an executive at Freddie Mac, a big provider of funding for home mortgages, predicts that inflated appraisals will lead to more foreclosures.

In the 1980s, inflated appraisals were one factor in the loan losses that sank many savings-and-loan institutions that were holding collateral worth less than they believed. Today, most loans are sold to investors and risks are more spread out, making it less likely that poor appraisals would cause lenders to collapse. But many people in the real-estate industry believe the appraisal system is overdue for reform, and investors who buy loans are asking tougher questions about appraisal procedures.

Built-In Conflict
The appraisal system has a built-in conflict of interest. Appraisers often are hired by loan officers or mortgage brokers, whose compensation depends on how many loans go through. Appraisers, dependent on loan officers for their livelihoods, say they often feel pressure to come up with a number that will allow a home purchase or refinancing to proceed.

Eric Randle, an appraiser in the Los Angeles area, says he frequently receives faxes from loan officers asking whether he could appraise a specified home at a certain level. The implication is that an assignment will be forthcoming only if he's willing to hit the desired number. Mr. Randle says he declines to work on those terms.

Consumers often play along with dubious appraisals. Danny Wiley, an appraiser in Nashville who is a member of the national Appraisal Standards Board, in May was asked by a lender to appraise a condo in Spring Hill, Tenn. The buyer had offered to pay $139,000, but the contract required the seller to pay $10,000 toward the buyer's closing costs. In effect, Mr. Wiley says, the price had been inflated by $10,000 to allow the seller to provide money to help the buyer cover closing costs.

Mr. Wiley estimated the value at $129,000, the same price at which numerous identical units in the same complex had recently been sold. That should have killed the deal. But Mr. Wiley says the sale later went through, apparently after the lender found another appraiser willing to value the condo at $139,000. Mr. Wiley declines to identify the parties involved in the transaction, citing client confidentiality.

Rise of Mortgage Brokers
Another problem is that -- unlike in the 1980s, when current mortgage law was enacted -- around half of all mortgage loans are made through brokers rather than directly by closely regulated lenders. Mortgage brokers are lightly regulated in most states, and appraisers say brokers often apply pressure. Joseph Falk, chairman of the legislative committee of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers, says brokers shouldn't pressure appraisers to distort value estimates. But he advises appraisers to create and enforce their own ethical standards.

Lenders often play down the issue. Tim Doyle, an official of the Mortgage Bankers Association, says he sees no "broad" problem with inflated appraisals, outside of criminal rings engaged in fraudulent mortgage deals. Even though mortgage lenders typically sell loans to investors shortly after making them, the lenders have an incentive to ensure those loans are backed by property valued at least as much as the loan balance, Mr. Doyle says. Investors can force the lenders to buy back a loan if it goes into default and the appraisal was fraudulent, he says.

Even when all parties want an honest appraisal, that can be hard to achieve. In making their value estimates, appraisers rely heavily on "comps," or prices paid recently for similar homes nearby. But those prices may be misleading. For instance, builders of new homes sometimes include in the sale prices such items as landscaping or contributions toward loan fees or settlement costs. Such "concessions" are rarely broken out in the sale price listed in public records, though. So the resulting inflated price can become a misleading "comp" for nearby homes.
 
There is a train wreck coming in the housing market for sure. Too many people bought houses thinking they would flip them and are now unable to sell and unable to afford to keep them either. Too many people took ridiculous interest only or other risky types of loans that have left them upside down or with an unaffordable payment.

There are more houses on the market than people to buy them. Many people upsized into homes they really couldn't afford, and it's a LOT harder to unload a large, expensive home than a modest "starter" home.

My community is seeing a lot of people who built spec homes thinking they were going to flip them for a big profit, and now can't afford a Realtors commission because the market has gone flat and aren't having any luck selling them on their own because there's an empty lot right next door that someone could put the house they really want on. Sure, two or three years ago you would have made a killing doing that in my neighborhood, but not any longer.

We're going to see a similar problem to what happened in 1988, you can bet on it.

Anne
 
You may want to read this article about Florida's "ghost market." It doesn't even address the insurance problem but talks a lot about builders and what's motivating them at this point. Scary stuff.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/07/ghost-housing-market.html

We bought our house to live in and have not indulged in any cash-out refi/wealth effect spending so I'm not worried about a direct financial hit. My fear is that people will be driven away for so many reasons and we'll be left to pay all the taxes or participate in some sort of government-sponsored bail out.
 
Kay1,

Your article is very interesting,too. A couple passages particularly struck me:

SNIP: "So now we have a market flooded with people that had no intention of living in the home. When, in the history of the world, have you seen millions of people buying multiple homes like a box of donuts? Like donuts, the value of these homes is dropping as they sit on the market."

This is a really good point. Buying homes like a box of donuts. Wow. And I hear that a lot of the so called investors in Florida aren't even US citizens, they are from Europe and wherever else. Your article also mentions this fact.

SNIP: "ARMS - Ouch. What more can you say. With a trillion dollars in debt a year coming due for refinancing, what’s going to happen to people when their mortgaged go up 40%? They’re going to put their homes on the market. The same market that is already flooded with inventory from flippers, builders and the normal sellers. The result will be more inventory and prices dropping further as sellers scramble to sell."

Yes, this is already happening.

SNIP: "ATM - Add to the problems, all of those home owners that used their homes like ATM machines to buy cars, boats, skiddos and vacations. The counted on ever increasing home prices and low interest rates to keep them afloat. What do they do now? Put their homes on the market in hopes of cashing in and downsizing. More inventory!"

This last paragraph is one of the most distressing. When I was still doing review work for an individual bank, at my former job, I often saw the same house appraisal come through multiple times within 2 or 3 years. I can understand refinancing for a lower rate, but not multiple times, and not cash-out refinances, which most of these loans were. I talked to a lot of appraisers in the field, whose work I reviewed, and so many of them could see the dangers and agreed even two or three years ago that "This will end badly."
 

this is horrible - but maybe in 2008 I might be afford a house in florida...
 
I've always admired the appraisal that was done for our house. It's about 16-pages long, with all sorts of great pictures and drawings. Then there is a page and a half of very complicated calculation, with dozens of different factors leading to an appraised price that is - magically - only $400 off from the price we had aggreed on (But I'm sure the appraiser didn't take that into account)
 
ducklite said:
My community is seeing a lot of people who built spec homes thinking they were going to flip them for a big profit, and now can't afford a Realtors commission because the market has gone flat and aren't having any luck selling them on their own because there's an empty lot right next door that someone could put the house they really want on. Sure, two or three years ago you would have made a killing doing that in my neighborhood, but not any longer.
Anne

Oh, the Orlando MSA is in freefall. It is one of the more inflated markets out there, and, because many people bought second homes, vacation homes, or investment properties, they are more likely to allow foreclosure than they would on a primary residence. We have not yet begun to feel the pain.
 
Thanks. I don't think the problem is only in Florida either! Here in the St Louis area they are building futher and futher out and bigger and bigger. Who is buying all these houses? Even my little (old) neighborhood prices are up and are selling for more than they are "worth". We will sit tight and stick with our plan to pay off in 4 years. Several friends have outright told us we are crazy to stay in our "little started home". I wonder what is going to happen though?
 
we purposely sold our house a couple of months ago because we knew the bubble had to burst-and i'm so glad we did, the market is crashing hard around here. there's a glut of houses on the market and a ton of those are going to be 'short sales'. we've seen houses that listed a month after ours that were identical to ours drop their prices 80K!

the issue with flaky lenders and the like was a concern to our realtor-he's an 'old school guy' and had seen too many deals fall through in recent years because buyers had been misinformed about how much they could qualify for and how they could offer more than asking to roll in costs for closing, upgrades, improvements. his office had a policy that if a buyer came in and wanted to see properties that would only take offers from pre qual/pre approved buyers they had to at least run the credit (no charge) with one of the reputable lenders they worked with to see if it was feasable. he said he'd known too many realtors/sellers who had invested too much time in showings, negotiations only to find that the buyers were going with a bad lender that could'nt pull it off without using some involving some shady elements neither the realtor nor the buyer was willing to participate with.

there's def. going to be some fallout around here-i know of one realtor in particular who had to be engaging in some kind of scam with appraisers and home inspectors. the office dealt alot with out of area buyers and would approach home owners and tell them the top dollar the buyer qualified for-get them to list the house at that price and then sell it to their out of town buyer. we had neighbors that moved in about a month before we sold-they paid at least $100K more than the property was worth-and more than any comp. with better upgrades sold in the best market over the past couple of years. the home inspectors were only there for maybe 30 minutes (vs. the one our buyer's used who spent over 4 hours and produced a 60 page report citing only 1 minor problem) and spent 10 minutes total inside the house (and this was a house that previous owners had done massive reconstruction on their own without the beneifit of permits or any professional advise). when the first major issue comes up and the new owners find out it should have been caught in the inspection and they can't pull a cent out to fix it i suspect it wont be a good situation).

something that's kind of interesting to do-go onto your area mls and enter a starting price and look at what's being offered today. go in again in about a month and take another look with the same figure. we've found that in our area while you could'nt find much of anything (maybe 2 or 3 houses) under 450K a month ago-there's a glut now. they're all the houses that were previously being listed in the 500K range in may and june.
 
Oh yeah, without a doubt, the next several years are going to be very painful in the housing market. Here in Orlando, we're already beginning so what is coming, and it's not going to be pretty. There are a whole lot of condo high rises going up in the metro area here, many of them bought by investors. And they're going to lose their shirts....there's no doubt about it.

We heard all of the talk that this housing market was fueled by demand....that's the biggest load of BS ever doled out around here. What feuled this housing market was pure speculation....and for anyone who got into the game late there will be a whole lot of pain.
 
I have a question for those of you who know about these things. I live in the house my great-grandparents built so I know VERY little about the housing market - I've never had to pay too much attention.

I've been trying to decide my next move - I live in a pretty economically slow area (used to be a booming industrial area, but not so much anymore), however the "big" city (LOL!) a few miles away has been doing a lot of development (they just announced a new theme park being built about 10-15 miles from my house, as well as the addition of other stores to that area) and I can see a big boom coming for this region. It *seems* like it may be a good idea to stick around here and get a decent paying full time job, save for the downpayment to buy a house while costs are low (I could get a huge, nice house for $100,000 give or take that would cost significantly more in most areas - if I stay in this city, I could get an older house but in good condition for between $50 - 75,000) and hope for this boom.

The housing boom that everyone's been talking about, I never saw it around here - real estate seemed to depreciate around here year after year. I think we're an anomoly, since we're not in a very "exciting" area and more people are leaving than coming in. So it *seems* like while the market is cooling in other areas, it's getting ready to burst here and I could do better by staying and getting in before things take off . . . especially since it seems we're just a few years away from a booming job market as well (on top of tourism, a lot of technology companies are coming in, Homeland Security will have a main office here, etc)

But then again, like I said I know nothing about housing and property values and all that stuff so I don't know if it's just wishful thinking or if this ARE the signs of a turn-around that I should be taking advantage of.
 
I admit, I really don't understand any of this.

We are in the process of looking for a house now, and given all of this information I don't know if we should buy now, or wait??

I looked at the chart on the posted link to see where our area fell, and it says our market is actually undervalued. What does this mean for those of us house hunting?

Augusta GA $158.7 $192.3 -17% Undervalued
 
I've seen several articles in the Chicago Trib the past few days remarking on the cooling real estate market on a national basis, and in the Chicago area in particular. We in Chicago are lucky, we didn't see nearly the gains that other really hot markets saw, so our bubble won't burst so much as just deflate a little. I'm glad I sold my condo last summer, condo prices are usually the first to fall in a down market, or so I'm told. We got a decent deal on our curent home, and once done improving it we should still turn a profit when ready to sell in 5-10 years, unless something drastic happens. And even so, we've got 20% equity in our home and a 30 year fixed at 5.75, so we're sitting pretty no matter what. Those with those 0% down 3 year variable ARM's are going to get killed.
 
Brier Rose said:
I admit, I really don't understand any of this.

We are in the process of looking for a house now, and given all of this information I don't know if we should buy now, or wait??

I looked at the chart on the posted link to see where our area fell, and it says our market is actually undervalued. What does this mean for those of us house hunting?

Augusta GA $158.7 $192.3 -17% Undervalued


It means that houses in that area are selling for about 17% less than the norm should be..... meaning real estate is a good deal in Augusta!
 
Brier Rose said:
I admit, I really don't understand any of this.

We are in the process of looking for a house now, and given all of this information I don't know if we should buy now, or wait??

I looked at the chart on the posted link to see where our area fell, and it says our market is actually undervalued. What does this mean for those of us house hunting?

Augusta GA $158.7 $192.3 -17% Undervalued

I think if you are a buyer that you're in an excellent position now, and that position is likely to get better if you live in an area where real estate ballooned. The key thing right now...buy a home that you plan to live in for at least 5 years...minimum. Clark Howard, the fiscal conservative radio guy, says he wouldn't buy unless you plan to stay in that home for at least 7 years. And whatever you do, don't go for any risky mortgage products such as an interest only loan. And so I wouldn't be fearful of buying. People will continue to need to buy and live in new homes...it's just that in a lot of areas (Orlando included), there was too much speculation causing the inventory to balloon, and so prices will reflect that fact.
 
I saw on that CNN "overpriced markets" list that my area, Philadelphia, is listed as fairly priced. I don't agree (at least for the sub-/exurban area in which I live) - we're seeing a lot of the same problems with regards to supply and demand as the rest of the country. There's a subdivision of townhomes around us that has 3 to 1 ratio of for rent/sale units vs. not.

We closed on the sale of our house in early March and are now renting a lovely home at a good rent with plenty of cash on hand, in addition to other investments. There is not a day that goes by when I don't read some or other report or article like this one and thank all the powers above that we're not owning at the moment.
 
perdidobay said:
It means that houses in that area are selling for about 17% less than the norm should be..... meaning real estate is a good deal in Augusta!

That's so funny, because it seems so expensive to me! :lmao:

BUT...I guess compared to many areas in the country the prices here are pretty good. A 2500 square foot house in a nice neighboorhood is starting at $300,000.

I just looked at an 1800 sq. ft. plain jane house yesterday, in a good neighboorhood, list price $265,000.

I guess that explains why houses aren't on the market long here AT ALL!!
 
dvcgirl said:
I think if you are a buyer that you're in an excellent position now, and that position is likely to get better if you live in an area where real estate ballooned. The key thing right now...buy a home that you plan to live in for at least 5 years...minimum. Clark Howard, the fiscal conservative radio guy, says he wouldn't buy unless you plan to stay in that home for at least 7 years. And whatever you do, don't go for any risky mortgage products such as an interest only loan. And so I wouldn't be fearful of buying. People will continue to need to buy and live in new homes...it's just that in a lot of areas (Orlando included), there was too much speculation causing the inventory to balloon, and so prices will reflect that fact.

Thanks for your advice!

Whatever home we buy now will be with the intention of staying there long term..maybe even forever. That's the plan anyway. I think that's why I'm so hesitant, and want to make a good choice.

As far as the loan goes, we already have all of that in place, and DH wouldn't even let them talk about anything other than 30 year fixed! :thumbsup2
 


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