Help me make up my mind please

[kikismom]

So my trip is going to be me, DD7, a friend and her DD7. I already booked June 13 - 17 but my friend feels like that is going to be too busy. I booked the other hotels already but want to cancel them by Friday hopefully.

Here's my research so far. We are either going one of the following times -

Feb 8 - 13 cost of trip $1395
Touring Plans has this as a 5, 9, 6, 3
Undercover Tourist is 6, 4, 5, 5
Feb 15 - 20 cost of trip $1430
TP is 9, 9, 9, 8
UT is 9, 7, 6, 6
Feb 21 - 26 cost of trip $1455
TP is 5, 5, 8, 2
UT is 7, 6, 5, 6
May 1 - 6 cost of trip $1365
TP is 10. 9, 9, 7
UT is 7, 6, 5, 6
June 14 - 18 cost of trip $1445
TP is 5, 4, 7, 6
UT is 8, 7, 8, 7

The cost doesn't include anything except hotel (split in 2), shuttle to and from airport, 4 day PH's, and flight.

Hotel is Best Western Stovalls except for the week of Feb 21, that one is Discovery Inn. The pools look way better at Stovalls and we do use them even in winter. The walk is the same from both hotels.

I know that the week of February 15th will be crazy with Presidents day. But it would also make our kids miss one less day of school.

Gah! I'm struggling with this. I need to make the case for the best week and am not sure which one that is. Any help is much appreciated.

 

[Cal-Pie]

I'd go with the 1st week of May. That was always our favorite week until my kids got too big to pull them out of school.

 

[kikismom]

I'd go with the 1st week of May. That was always our favorite week until my kids got too big to pull them out of school.

Are the crowds not that bad? I was surprised that Touring Plans had the crowd level so high. I've been during 10s and it wasn't fun. I'm hoping their numbers are just incorrect for that week.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

One thing to consider is the likelihood of closures and refurbishments earlier in the year. Because of this we always prefer to go in the summer so I’d vote June. But everyone has different priorities.

 

[Cal-Pie]

Are the crowds not that bad? I was surprised that Touring Plans had the crowd level so high. I've been during 10s and it wasn't fun. I'm hoping their numbers are just incorrect for that week.

Those predictions are surprising, but I really don't trust crowd calendars. I've experienced low crowds in May, except toward the end of the month on weekends, especially on years that they've offered a special ticket offer for locals, which usually expire at the end of May. I always felt like the first week of May was the sweet spot between spring break and grad nights.

 

[dieumeye]

Don't rely on crowd calendars. For DL, they're not accurate, and any predictions based on past years are out the window now that SW:GE has opened, and Disney seems to be in the process of making adjustments for crowd levels (Bring-a-Friend deals, Flex Pass, etc). Plus next year, RotR will open in January (in theory) and Superhero Land will open as well, which should have some effect on crowd levels.

Having said all that, here are some quick thoughts...

Feb 8-13 could see reduced staffing/entertainment and more ride refurbishments since it's so-called off season. Also, higher chance of rain in February than in May/June. RotR will have just opened, which will certainly draw some people, but I'm not sure it'll mean the entire park will be swamped (in fact, it could have the opposite effect if a lot of people are primarily visiting for RotR, the rest of the park could feel less crowded.)

I'd avoid Feb 15-20. That is right after Valentine's Day, which brings crowds, and it's over a 3 day weekend with President's Day, which people have off school/work.

Feb 21-26 might be good since it's after the President's Day weekend, but before the Spring Break crowds show up. Still might have reduced entertainment and refurbishments here.

May 1-6. Probably too early for Grad Nights, but can't say for sure. Also can't remember when Superhero Land is scheduled to open - thought it was "spring", so that might be around this time. I like these dates, though.

Your June dates will probably be busy, but not insane.

A few things I have not checked: conventions (if any major ones overlap, that could bring increased crowds), school break calendars (any 3 day weekends will likely increase crowds), AP calendars (the more APs are unblocked, the more crowded it can be). Also, as Disney seems to be messing with ticket prices/deals to adjust crowd levels, so there could always be some deal starting or ending at any time - which can bring higher crowds.

In the end, you should always expect crowds at DL. The only thing you can do to combat crowds is spend as much time in the parks as possible. So the best time to go is always whatever time allows you to spend the most time in the parks. Combine that with awareness of FP/MP, and a general idea of the best way to experience attractions can have long lines, you'll have a great time even if the parks are crowded.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

As mentioned, seriously, don’t go by crowd calendars. Just don’t. @dieumeye provided some nice commentary on your options.

 

[Geemo]

So my trip is going to be me, DD7, a friend and her DD7. I already booked June 13 - 17 but my friend feels like that is going to be too busy. I booked the other hotels already but want to cancel them by Friday hopefully.

Here's my research so far. We are either going one of the following times -

Feb 8 - 13 cost of trip $1395
Touring Plans has this as a 5, 9, 6, 3
Undercover Tourist is 6, 4, 5, 5
Feb 15 - 20 cost of trip $1430
TP is 9, 9, 9, 8
UT is 9, 7, 6, 6
Feb 21 - 26 cost of trip $1455
TP is 5, 5, 8, 2
UT is 7, 6, 5, 6
May 1 - 6 cost of trip $1365
TP is 10. 9, 9, 7
UT is 7, 6, 5, 6
June 14 - 18 cost of trip $1445
TP is 5, 4, 7, 6
UT is 8, 7, 8, 7

The cost doesn't include anything except hotel (split in 2), shuttle to and from airport, 4 day PH's, and flight.

Hotel is Best Western Stovalls except for the week of Feb 21, that one is Discovery Inn. The pools look way better at Stovalls and we do use them even in winter. The walk is the same from both hotels.

I know that the week of February 15th will be crazy with Presidents day. But it would also make our kids miss one less day of school.

Gah! I'm struggling with this. I need to make the case for the best week and am not sure which one that is. Any help is much appreciated.

This link will give you an idea of what happened this year.
https://www.disboards.com/threads/2019-calendar-of-events-school-breaks-and-dlr.3708938/There is also a beginning of 2020 events towards the bottom of post #1.

As others have said do not rely on the crowd predictors.
I'd choose the May dates for a trip.

 

[DLgal]

Go in June. Trust me.

 

[kikismom]

I was wondering about the new SW ride opening in January. We most likely won't go in the land at all unless we just go in to look. Now I'm thinking we might want to go before Marvel Land, we are bringing two little girly girls who have no interest in Marvel so that won't interest us either. I cancelled the Feb 15th week rooms already. I might just throw the rest in a hat. I've been twice where it hit capacity, as long as it doesn't get to that point I'll be fine.

 

[dieumeye]

I was wondering about the new SW ride opening in January. We most likely won't go in the land at all unless we just go in to look. Now I'm thinking we might want to go before Marvel Land, we are bringing two little girly girls who have no interest in Marvel so that won't interest us either. I cancelled the Feb 15th week rooms already. I might just throw the rest in a hat. I've been twice where it hit capacity, as long as it doesn't get to that point I'll be fine.

I guess you never know, but I'd be surprised if the parks hit capacity any of these dates. Also, I'm not sure when the Marvel area is scheduled to open, or if they've even announced a timeframe, so double check that before you plan anything around it.

 

[Indiana Scott]

We have gone during the first week of May on many occasions. The crowds are slightly lighter but there are often refurbs going on (but there's usually something down when ever you go) .
The weather is always nice and we always have a great time.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Re: crowd calendars at DLR -- Most accurate crowd calendars?
I"d go with June. The last Grad Nite is scheduled for June 13th -- so you won't have to worry about those at all. Weather should be nice -- June Gloom in the mornings, warm afternoons, cool down in the evenings. Fuller staffing, longer hours, full entertainment schedule. The trick at DLR isn't trying to second guess the crowd patterns -- that's a losing battle when so much of the crowd is local. The trick is choosing the time that works best for you, then making your best plans here, having a back up plan, then going with the flow and letting the magic happen.

 

[HydroGuy]

Are the crowds not that bad? I was surprised that Touring Plans had the crowd level so high. I've been during 10s and it wasn't fun. I'm hoping their numbers are just incorrect for that week.

Touring. Plans. Is. Wrong. Worthless for DLR. Everyone knows it. Might as well flip coins.

 

[FeistyDisneyMom]

I'd stick with June - the weather is more predictably southern californian, as described above with a morning gloom, but typically lovely perfect weather during the day - not too hot but warm enough to enjoy water rides. Disney is doing its best to eliminate all down seasons/low crowd periods, so just stick to what fits best with your schedule and expect crowds at any time.

 

[kikismom]

Okay another date has been thrown out. March 7 to the 12th. That seems awfully close to spring break to me.

 

[FeistyDisneyMom]

That IS our spring break here (Texas), and I'm pretty sure it overlaps with other school systems even closer to Disneyland. Last year, Anaheim and our school district had the same spring break, and the Monday of our trip was SUPER busy (most crowded day our family has ever had at DLR). I enjoyed a March trip and getting to do Food & Wine, but if your friend is concerned about crowds, definitely look at the spring break schedules - not just for SoCal either, but NoCal and Arizona, as folks there often travel to DLR for spring break!

I think there is a sticky or a master thread somewhere with the dates, I'll try to find it!

 

[Cal-Pie]

Okay another date has been thrown out. March 7 to the 12th. That seems awfully close to spring break to me.

March 7 hits the tail end of the Natural Products Expo at the convention center. It typically doubles or even triples hotel rates, so I would check on rates before you give that date much consideration. I agree with Fiestymom, you will definitely see the beginning of spring break crowds. I've been several years during that timeframe (my kids have a school break), and we've had some sort of adverse weather each year. Usually rain, but this year it downright chilly. Like, freeze your buns off while you're watching F! chilly, and we are not cold weather wimps.

 

[Chickinvic]

I'd go early May or late February out of those dates.

 

[kikismom]

Thanks all. The June dates have to go away. We are planning a family trip to Hawaii next year and it sounds like we'll be going in June. Those were my favorite dates. Anyway. I think we'll have to pick something in February. For some reason hotel rates are super high the weekend of February 21st. I have a hotel booked from the 21st to the 26th and also the 7th to the 13th. We will save about $200 if we do the first weekend over the later weekend. Decisions, decisions.