Help me evaluate how much to add on, without doing "too much"!

[davidl81]

When you know you want to stay at RIV, and are okay with the resale restrictions, which OP is, buying those direct makes sense.

Renting your own points to make it happen can be a pain. Transfers mean you lose out in online booking and that could make a difference between SV and PV

To get RIV at $160 is a pretty good deal for those who want it. And if things change and someone goes more than once per year, that AP discount..when sales happen again..can add up.

Yes I agree if you want to stay at RIV then RIV direct at the discounted prices are a good deal. But reading OPs post they do not seem married to any one resort, and it looks like they want flexibility to bounce around at multiple resorts (weather on one trip or a different resort every trip). If that is the case then there are better values on resale espically once you look at 200+ point contracts. That being said RIV direct for 200+ points is reasonable, and super easy to buy and get matching use years and have points in their account tomorrow so I kinda get the appeal of buying it direct.

I think the OP already gets AP discounts though from a grand fathered in resale contract if I read that correctly. That takes some of the "value" away form the RIV direct idea.

 

[Wedgeout]

It’s never “too much” until you pass your yearly MF budget

 

[bradykp]

i already have AP discount, i bought resale prior to them removing that benefit.

They followed up they would likely add-on 200 points at RIV are $160 or 300 points are $155. It was also talked about getting access to AP benefits which help remove that cost long term if you think Ticket discounts will remain and you will use them.

 

[robinb]

i already have AP discount, i bought resale prior to them removing that benefit.

Then why are you even considering buying direct? Your membership already has the "blue card" benefits. Unless RIV is your favorite resort, I would choose something different. I own at AKV and BWV and I love being out with the animals and also close to Epcot. As your family changes, your needs will change. My DD21 loved that we can book near Epcot, even before she turned 21.

Edited: I just remembered that you could not book a 1BR at BWV or BCV for 5 people. Maybe you could save the new resort for your 2BR stays and AKV for your 1BR stays.

 

[bradykp]

because we genuinely liked Riviera. I was surprised. I could imagine splitting a stay 4-5 nights at AKV in a one bedroom and 4-5 nights in a Riviera 1 bedroom most years.

As far as resale options, by my calculations the best deals are as follows (numbers aren't exact but depending on sale price for each resort they are pretty close):

Avg Price per point based on Sale Price, Maintenance Fees, and remaining years:
Saratoga: $9.94
Poly: $10.12
BLT: $10.39
Aulani: $10.72
Copper Creek: $10.76
Animal Kingdom: $10.80
Grand Floridian: $10.85
Old Key West (extended): $11.02
Riviera (direct): $11.58


So riviera ends up being about $1.64 per point more expensive over the life of the contract than Saratoga is right now. I have never stayed at SSR - so there's no real benefit to buying there other than it being the cheapest avg price per point. Which means I'd likely buy at BLT or AKV, so within 75 cents to $1.19 per point of Riviera direct.

Due to the current promotion for add-on, it's pretty compelling to own at riviera, but i see your point. I'd just have to find a good deal on a BLT or AKV contract, or a stellar deal on a Saratoga contract.

Also - if i buy direct, i can easily align use years versus having to seek out a specific resale contract that aligns.

Then why are you even considering buying direct? Your membership already has the "blue card" benefits. Unless RIV is your favorite resort, I would choose something different. I own at AKV and BWV and I love being out with the animals and also close to Epcot. As your family changes, your needs will change. My DD21 loved that we can book near Epcot, even before she turned 21.

Edited: I just remembered that you could not book a 1BR at BWV or BCV for 5 people. Maybe you could save the new resort for your 2BR stays and AKV for your 1BR stays.

 

[davidl81]

because we genuinely liked Riviera. I was surprised. I could imagine splitting a stay 4-5 nights at AKV in a one bedroom and 4-5 nights in a Riviera 1 bedroom most years.

As far as resale options, by my calculations the best deals are as follows (numbers aren't exact but depending on sale price for each resort they are pretty close):

Avg Price per point based on Sale Price, Maintenance Fees, and remaining years:
Saratoga: $9.94
Poly: $10.12
BLT: $10.39
Aulani: $10.72
Copper Creek: $10.76
Animal Kingdom: $10.80
Grand Floridian: $10.85
Old Key West (extended): $11.02
Riviera (direct): $11.58


So riviera ends up being about $1.64 per point more expensive over the life of the contract than Saratoga is right now. I have never stayed at SSR - so there's no real benefit to buying there other than it being the cheapest avg price per point. Which means I'd likely buy at BLT or AKV, so within 75 cents to $1.19 per point of Riviera direct.

Due to the current promotion for add-on, it's pretty compelling to own at riviera, but i see your point. I'd just have to find a good deal on a BLT or AKV contract, or a stellar deal on a Saratoga contract.

Also - if i buy direct, i can easily align use years versus having to seek out a specific resale contract that aligns.

I think your biggest advantage of buying direct is getting the use year and exact amount of points that you want. I’d be a little careful and looking at the value on $per point over the life of the contract as who knows if you are going to keep this 30 much less 50 years. But if you are okay spending about 30% more for RIV direct than say AKV (and it’s easy to justify that decision) then do it. Especially since there is a good promotion now and depending on your use year you may get 2019 points for free.

 

[DebLovesPooh]

If my rough math is correct, you would need 150 more points for 5 nights (Sun-Thurs) in AKL and 4 nights (Fri-Mon) at RIV in a 1-bedroom in the mid June/mid Aug time. But points charts may change and so I would recommend at least 175 for some wiggle room. But 200 pts have a nice incentive and then you could mix and match your ratios of AKL:RIV nights. So, I would buy 200 direct so you could get that incentive and stay at RIV.

I tend to travel in February and April, but used the February points charts to determine how much I needed to add on since that was the more point-heavy chart of the two.

Deb

 

[RoseGold]

$1.64 per point more expensive over the life of the contract

Life of the contract is a long time, bro. All the other theme parks are dead, in case you haven't noticed.

I'd rather take the same math on CCV and at least be able to sell it in 20 years.

 

[sethschroeder]

Life of the contract is a long time, bro. All the other theme parks are dead, in case you haven't noticed.

I'd rather take the same math on CCV and at least be able to sell it in 20 years.

They have been dead before and recovered then as well. Plus life of contract also helps somewhat account for potential resale benefit in the future since it will have more time left but you can also do the math off future resale price point you believe a resort will hit.

Right now for 200 points at CCV you are looking at a $25/point premium over RIV. Its also a bad choice for a family of 5 because they are 100% locked in to a 2BR vs a Studio/1BR at RIV which has pull down murphy beds. Now if they only wanted to stay in 2BRs then it might not matter as much.

Oh and proactively pointing out once again things are dramatically different because of COVID restrictions vs a normal financial downturn (which may become a bigger thing in the coming year or two).

 

[RoseGold]

Right now for 200 points at CCV you are looking at a $25/point premium over RIV. Its also a bad choice for a family of 5 because they are 100% locked in to a 2BR vs a Studio/1BR at RIV which has pull down murphy beds. Now if they only wanted to stay in 2BRs then it might not matter as much.

The difference, obviously, is RIV resale. No one has any idea what this will sell for in 20 years.

It's 20% sold now, so, yea, no rush on that one.

 

[sethschroeder]

The difference, obviously, is RIV resale. No one has any idea what this will sell for in 20 years.

It's 20% sold now, so, yea, no rush on that one.

Its still a resort attached to two parks via skyliner. So it will sell it. In 20 years time there will be 0 resorts in DVC for Epcot that don't have resale restrictions and you can guarantee people will still want to stay near those parks.

So yes might sell for $50 less than CCV even but its all a guess and you are still saving money upfront on a long direct contract. Plus back to the point the OP has 5 people in the family and wants 1BRs at least some of the time.

 

[Sandisw]

The difference, obviously, is RIV resale. No one has any idea what this will sell for in 20 years.

It's 20% sold now, so, yea, no rush on that one.

Just try to remember that resale value is not important to everyone and they are okay with the restrictions and it’s okay for people to feel that way,

No one knows what any of the resorts will sell for in 20 years and resale market could crash for all resorts,

So, I would never advise anyone to not buy a resort they may enjoy because of that. While it is a small sample, so far, those contracts are going for more than any of use predicted so who knows,

There is also a chance that because of the restrictions, owners will hold on to them longer so not to lose money which could mean they will sell for more if supply is low.

 

[bradykp]

what do you mean in reference to "renting your own points to make it happen"?

When you know you want to stay at RIV, and are okay with the resale restrictions, which OP is, buying those direct makes sense.

Renting your own points to make it happen can be a pain. Transfers mean you lose out in online booking and that could make a difference between SV and PV

To get RIV at $160 is a pretty good deal for those who want it. And if things change and someone goes more than once per year, that AP discount..when sales happen again..can add up.

 

[Sandisw]

what do you mean in reference to "renting your own points to make it happen"?

Sometimes people will suggest that if you want to stay at RIV and have Resale points that can’t be used, you rent what you own and then either pay cash via Disney, or turn around an rent from another owner,

It will cost money to do this, but it is way, But, having to deal with a rental if it’s a place you want to stay would be work, IMO and then you lose control of your reservation if you went the rental route,

My feeling is that one should own at RIV if that is where they want to stay, I always said I would never buy....then I did a presentation about it with my DD and talked to my adult kids and we realized how great it would be. Owning there gives me the best chance to book SV rooms, especially for yearly trips to F and W.

 

[bradykp]

Excellent point about booking Standard View. we just stayed in a Preferred View room we paid cash. The view is nothing special, so I would probably want to save points and book standard view. I'm sincerely torn on whether to add-on with direct points at RIV or to buy resale points and just own more at AKV, and save about $10,000 up front costs.

 

[robinb]

My feeling is that one should own at RIV if that is where they want to stay, I always said I would never buy....then I did a presentation about it with my DD and talked to my adult kids and we realized how great it would be. Owning there gives me the best chance to book SV rooms, especially for yearly trips to F and W.

I absolutely agree with you about buying RIV if that's what you really want. However, I also do think that the RIV resale restrictions should be accounted for and if you're just on the fence about RIV then it becomes more important. I don't think that anyone goes into buying a timeshare thinking that they will have to sell it eventually. Then again, people don't get married thinking they will be divorced. Stuff happens and unloading a RIV contract may be more difficult than another resort.

* If I loved RIV, I would buy there no questions asked.
* If RIV had only a slight edge, I would take the resale restrictions into account and probably choose a different resort.

FWIW, I have been on all sides of the DVC buying/selling equations. I bought 2 contracts resale (OKW, BWV), sold one (OKW) and bought another direct (AKV).

 

[DebLovesPooh]

I think that it’s all about what the points are worth to you. For example, let’s say you buy resale AKL and stay at the original resorts. Will you be wishing you bought RIV instead and were staying there for a few nights? Then your resale dollars really weren’t worth it either if you were wishing you were somewhere else. Will you fork over an extra 10k and stay at Riviera and wish you still had the cash or will you think the cost was worth it? I don’t tend to regret what I buy as long as I really enjoy whatever it is I’m buying. I have, however, regretted not getting something that I really wanted and would have enjoyed. Another way of looking at is, what choice would you regret less?

 

[Sandisw]

I think that it’s all about what the points are worth to you. For example, let’s say you buy resale AKL and stay at the original resorts. Will you be wishing you bought RIV instead and were staying there for a few nights? Then your resale dollars really weren’t worth it either if you were wishing you were somewhere else. Will you fork over an extra 10k and stay at Riviera and wish you still had the cash or will you think the cost was worth it? I don’t tend to regret what I buy as long as I really enjoy whatever it is I’m buying. I have, however, regretted not getting something that I really wanted and would have enjoyed. Another way of looking at is, what choice would you regret less?

This is exactly it, When we first bought, it was about $5k more to buy BLT over SSR. I realized that even if I sold after 10 years, I spent an extra $500 a year to know I would be happy vs. stressing at 7 months in hopes to get the resort I wanted to be at.

 

[E2ME2]

because we genuinely liked Riviera. I was surprised. I could imagine splitting a stay 4-5 nights at AKV in a one bedroom and 4-5 nights in a Riviera 1 bedroom most years.

As far as resale options, by my calculations the best deals are as follows (numbers aren't exact but depending on sale price for each resort they are pretty close):

Avg Price per point based on Sale Price, Maintenance Fees, and remaining years:
Saratoga: $9.94
Poly: $10.12
BLT: $10.39
Aulani: $10.72
Copper Creek: $10.76
Animal Kingdom: $10.80
Grand Floridian: $10.85
Old Key West (extended): $11.02
Riviera (direct): $11.58


So riviera ends up being about $1.64 per point more expensive over the life of the contract than Saratoga is right now. I have never stayed at SSR - so there's no real benefit to buying there other than it being the cheapest avg price per point. Which means I'd likely buy at BLT or AKV, so within 75 cents to $1.19 per point of Riviera direct.

Due to the current promotion for add-on, it's pretty compelling to own at riviera, but i see your point. I'd just have to find a good deal on a BLT or AKV contract, or a stellar deal on a Saratoga contract.

Also - if i buy direct, i can easily align use years versus having to seek out a specific resale contract that aligns.

There is one issue with that type of calculation; the years left on the contract may not represent the amount of time over which you will actually use those points.
Also - the number of points needed to secure a reservation at the resort you want in the season you want, adds another variable to this equation.
DVC Calculus = is 50% Math, 50% Art, 50% Emotion