To the OP, I sympathize that you entered a line with a posted wait time of 20 minutes and, if I'm reading your subsequent posts correctly, did not enter the loading area until 30-40 minutes later. It can be frustrating when the actual wait turns out to be significantly longer than the posted wait especially because, in our experience, that is not common. Maybe we are just lucky.
Because there are now questions about the actual timing of this episode, this is what I see:
1. The original post has a time stamp of 3:29 PM, which would be 10:29 EST. In that post, the OP said he had been in line for about 20 minutes, meaning that he would have entered the line at about 10:10.
2. When he entered the line at 10:10, the posted wait time was 20 minutes. I can see why he entered that line because I would be pleasantly surprised to see a posted wait time at Soarin that short over an hour after park opening.
3. After he had been in line for a few minutes, the OP said that they "announced" that the wait time had changed to 60 minutes, and by the time of the post it was up to 90 minutes. It wasn't clear if they actually announced to people inside the line that the wait time for standby had gone up (which I don't think I have ever heard of) or if he was just seeing increased posted wait times through some type of wait times app.
4. While there is clearly some type of typo in the message, I think one of the OP's subsequent posts (#5) says that he hit the loading stall at 40 minutes. That post is time stamped at 3:42 PM or 10:42 AM EST. So, if I am reading these correctly, the OP's wait time was closer to 30 minutes and maybe as high as 40, but not the 90 minutes that some people on this thread seem to have concluded. If I am reading these incorrectly, I will let the OP correct me.
So I guess my experience at Test Track that I described in the other thread was not an "abberation".
I guess it depends on what part of that experience you are talking about. You talked about entering the standby line at TT at 9:20 AM after riding Soarin first. You said that the posted wait time was 15 minutes and you actually waited 70. If you are referring to the fact that your actual wait time was longer than the posted wait time, these situations are similar, although in your case the difference was quite a bit greater. So, this example does nothing to suggest that a posted wait time of 15 minutes followed by an actual wait of 70 minutes is the "new normal".
However, in the thread in which you posted that experience, your larger point has been that it is no longer possible to complete the "one two punch" of Soarin and Test Track even if you arrive right at rope drop. Because this poster did not enter the Soarin line until 10-10:10 AM, it really doesn't address what you can accomplish right at rope drop, unless the OP wants to add in that he went right to TT at rope drop and went right to Soarin when he exited there. But, he hasn't said that.
The other point that you have made repeatedly, and which both your example and the OP have directly refuted is that, because of FP+ and tiering, someone will have to wait in a standby line of an hour or longer if they want to ride both TT and Soarin in the same day, You said that you rode Soarin right at RD with a very short wait so, if you had used your FP for TT, you could have done both with virtually no waiting. Even at 10 AM or a little later, it appears that the OP rode Soarin standby with a wait of about 30-40 minutes. Except for the issue with the original posted wait time of 20 minutes, nobody would be surprised with a wait this long. If he has/had a later FP for TT, he could be doing both rides today with just one moderate wait. If he did either Soarin or TT (or both) before he entered this line, he could be on his way to doing both twice.
That brings me to this:
And yet others insist that the posted wait times are surgically precise. Go figure.
Who has ever said this, or even anything close to it?
Yes, I have said that, in our experience, the posted wait times are shorter than the actual waits much more often than not. And there have been several threads on just this narrow topic in which several other people have said the same thing. I have also said that the posted wait times are often less accurate in the first hour or so after park opening because the lines are building quickly. That was true before FP+ and in our experience post FP+ it is still true today. I even gave an example of a wait we encountered at TT (before FP+) in the first hour when we entered with a posted wait of something like 20 minutes and waited about 40.
In this case, it looks like the OP ran into one of those surge times when the line grows quickly. It is also possible that there was some kind of breakdown or necessary cleanup that caused the line to stand still for a while. If I am picturing the standby line at Soarin correctly, you can't even see the people in the FP return line until you go around that last corner and get within sight of the merge point. So, the OP probably doesn't know if the FP line was moving or not.