Has SSR made it harder to book other resorts?

[dolphinea]

Hi kids,

I was wondering if the increased number of new owners at Saratoga Springs has made it more difficult to book the other resorts?

Whenever I've thought about buying into DVC, it was only with the idea that I could stay at a variety of resorts. I don't really want to only stay in the same place every time.

I know it's been difficult already, before SSR, for owners to book in the fall (low points required, food & wine, Christmas and Halloween stuff up, great weather, etc.), anywhere but their home resort.

I'm suspicious that the more properties that get added, the harder and harder it will get, until you can't book anywhere at the last minute but SSR.

Thanks!
~Amanda

 

[crisi]

Any additional resorts will make it harder to book non home resorts. The members increase, but the number of rooms at VWL stays the same. Now, its my belief that those who know the system (and have patience) will generally be successful booking seven months out, but it might turn into something a little more like Cindy's breakfast than I'd personally want to deal with.

 

[pouncingpluto]

That's not entirely true... because at the same time additional resorts = more options = some of the people who would have wanted to stay at VWL wanting instead to stay at the other resort. How many people would rather stay at the new resort than at VWL will depend on the appeal of the new resort.

Now, if this new resort is Eagle Pines, I would say it will become harder to book at VWL at 7 months. If this new resort is the Polynesian, I don't think it will have an impact or it may even become easier to book at VWL at times.

In the case of SSR, yes, I do think it is making it harder to book at VWL, BCV, BWV at 7 mos.

 

[swich2mac]

This is the very reason why you should buy into the home resort that is at the top of your list or one that you will more frequently visit.

 

[Daitcher]

Not for me. I own SSR and book elsewhere. I'll give you my trips for the last two years 05 and 06. In 2005 we spent 5 days at the BCV( 1 bedroom) in May, We then spent a week at VB in a Beach cottage (Oct. 1 -8th). This year we stayed 2 days on cash at BCV(studio) ( I know doesn't count but we did book it a week ahead), coming up we have 4 days Feb. 27 - March 3rd at the BCV( 1 bedroom), then we'll fly to Texas for 4 days then back to Orlando. When we return to Orlando, we'll spend 2 days at OKW( March 7 - 9th). In May I booked a 5 day stay for my brother and his GF at BWV (studio) (May 7th - 12th). We will be staying at VB (2 bedroom) May 7th -12th, and then at VWL(2 bedroom) May 12th - 14th. Fall will be open as we will be moving. All of these trips Were booked at 7 months or less. Many were booked around 5 months out. If you have any flexibility you'll be able to try them all. Don't sweat it unless you only travel school break times.

DAVE

 

[crisi]

That's not entirely true... because at the same time additional resorts = more options = some of the people who would have wanted to stay at VWL wanting instead to stay at the other resort. How many people would rather stay at the new resort than at VWL will depend on the appeal of the new resort.

Now, if this new resort is Eagle Pines, I would say it will become harder to book at VWL at 7 months. If this new resort is the Polynesian, I don't think it will have an impact or it may even become easier to book at VWL at times.

In the case of SSR, yes, I do think it is making it harder to book at VWL, BCV, BWV at 7 mos.

Because of the large numbers involved, the small resorts don't mathematically get that much easier to book if more small resorts (the rumored VCR) open - a little, but not significantly. The do get significantly more difficult (numerically) if another rumored large resort opens (the rumored EP). If DVC were to open more offsite resorts, it would be interesting to see what the demand balance would be.

 

[Jen D]

There is another factor that keeps demand in check a little-- the lower point costs at OKW and SSR. (I don't factor in BWV standard because those are usually snapped up by those with a home resort advantage.)

I'll be trying all DVCs but as someone with only 200 points who likes 1 bedrooms, a lot of the times I'll be choosing the "condo resorts" to keep point usage down.

I think the lower point advantage at SSR and OKW will help ensure everyone isn't always trying to get into the "hotel" DVCs. Just a thought.

 

[bcvillastwo]

At this point, I think it is too early to tell what the effect will be.

It really depends on supply and demand. Yes, it's possible that with increased numbers demand will shoot up at the smaller resorts. On the other hand, it's also possible that people who buy at the new (and bigger) resorts will be content and not want to be at BCV or WLV. Only time will tell.

 

[Northern Lights]

For our vacation times and accomodations, I have already seen the effect and we have now adjusted our reservation strategy to ensure we get our home resort during our 2-3 preferred times to go. I will agree, however, that I have not seen an effect yet on 1BRs. We are still in go-often mode but eventually we will become more of an annual trip family that stays in 1br or 2br. I understand 2BR's are very tough to get as well so I suspect our booking strategy will remain the same.

 

[NMW]

Any additional resorts will make it harder to book non home resorts. The members increase, but the number of rooms at VWL stays the same. Now, its my belief that those who know the system (and have patience) will generally be successful booking seven months out, but it might turn into something a little more like Cindy's breakfast than I'd personally want to deal with.

That's a great analogy. I hate those early morning ADR calls! For me, trying to switch my reservation at 7 mos to the resort I really wanted would add a great deal of stress to the vacation planning. I agree that more members=more people calling at 7 mos to book a non-home resort.

 

[senecabeach]

IMHO.... the KEY to acquire non-home ressies is.....PLANNING!!

I have not yet had a problem at any of the DVC's @ the 7th month window.

In fact..
At the 5th mo. window, in Dec 05, I got ressies @ VWL for a 1 bdrm..7 days...Memorial week 06.

I have also added on 5 extra days to a BCV vacation in 05 @ the 3 mos. window..also for a May vacation.

Also remember that people sometimes..just make ressies to have them...then cancel later!

 

[LoveToDisney]

Plus those that own at BCV are sometimes making reservations at 11 mos. as backup and then changing to another less costly resort and bigger unit at 7 mos. I think there's a lot of shifting around at 7 mos. I have even found a BWV standard 1BR available at 7 mos...a real find!

 

[Dean]

It is my opinion that BWV, BCV & VWL are more appealing to the masses than SSR and OKW as well as that I believe more people who have bought in the last 5 years or so at SSR and OKW, did so just to get into the system or for the extra 12 yars. And given the points involved, even if it's only 1 or 2% increased demand, the above resorts will be much harder to get. No one knows for certain but I'll stake my reputation that within a couple of years of SSR sell out, we'll see much more complaining in this area. It's not that some won't be successful, some will. But it will be those that play the system for every single advantage. How you say, I'll tell you the best single method for OKW & SSR owners or for HH & VB as well. Have enough points to book your home resort day by day at 11 months out then at 7 months do the same day by day for where you desire. Go on the wait list individually for each day and keep the original reservation until you've gotten everything. Use year will be much more important in that scenario and as I alluded to already, you'll need enough points to keep both until the last day of the second reservation.

And there are a number of other ways including having multiple smaller but totally separate contracts and transferring points in, at least unless DVC fixes their tracking system. And if EP happens, it will get worse. If CR happens, it won't get much better due to the likely size of the resorts involved. Someone on another thread mentioned SSR sell out by 2007, I think that's extremely optimistic. I'd put it more in the 2010 range and thus the likely full impact of this situation not until maybe 2012-2013. Once all those points are in the system AND the newer members at SSR have had a chance to stay at their home resort a couple of times, we'll truly know where we stand. I predict a storm of unhappy people spearheaded by the complaint "but my guide promised I'd be able to trade in to X resort at the 7 month window". Plus far more of the common whine that the time someone wanted was up for rental.

 

[Beca]

It is my opinion that BWV, BCV & VWL are more appealing to the masses than SSR and OKW as well as that I believe more people who have bought in the last 5 years or so at SSR and OKW, did so just to get into the system or for the extra 12 yars.

Add to that, the fact that people like me who have been "scouring" the resales for BCV contracts (or for others...BWV, or VWL) have been "passing over" DVC's specials and paying more for stripped contracts because that is where we plan on staying. I can't help but thinking that anyone that is going to pay $90+ dollars for a resale contract is NOT going to try to get into that resort.

As people who are not "crazy" about the "sold out" resorts sell their contracts to those who are CRAZY enough to pay these prices....the resorts are going to be owned by those who really like staying there.

We already know that DVC is not for "last minute" trips....we plan ahead, and always plan to stay at BCV. It would be the RARE re-scheduling of a trip that would make me go to another resort, and who knows...we might just cancel or WDW trip for the year....we love our home resort that much. People like me will make it very hard for non-owners to get into my home resort.

Dean, I respect your opinions a lot. But, when you said you don't expect SSR to sell out until 2010-2012, I wonder if you could explain why you think this. If DVC is in the final 1/3 of the rooms (which is what my guide told me), that means they have sold 2/3 of the resort in just over 2 years. Why do you think it will take 4-6 years to sell the final 1/3? Or am I just missing something?



Beca

 

[SleepyatDVC]

Dean, I respect your opinions a lot. But, when you said you don't expect SSR to sell out until 2010-2012, I wonder if you could explain why you think this. If DVC is in the final 1/3 of the rooms (which is what my guide told me), that means they have sold 2/3 of the resort in just over 2 years. Why do you think it will take 4-6 years to sell the final 1/3? Or am I just missing something?



Beca

I'm not Dean.

I know nothing.

But here's my take on things. I believe ther will be a new DVC in the future opening before SSR sells out. Maybe the rumored CVR - maybe not. But when the new DVC comes on-line the price per point will be even higher. I think that there wil be better demand for the new DVC resort and the only way to keep the sales at SSR from slowing totally down will be massive incentives. Even now, there have been some pretty hefty incentives lately. JMO.

 

[Dean]

Dean, I respect your opinions a lot. But, when you said you don't expect SSR to sell out until 2010-2012, I wonder if you could explain why you think this. If DVC is in the final 1/3 of the rooms (which is what my guide told me), that means they have sold 2/3 of the resort in just over 2 years. Why do you think it will take 4-6 years to sell the final 1/3? Or am I just missing something?

Beca, as always it is my opinion but here's a glimpse into my thinking. SSR has been selling what now, almost 3 years. I don't believe for a second it is 2/3 sold out for the total points that will ultimately be available. And while I know that certain people would like us to think that sales are on or ahead of target, I don't believe that. If they were, there would not be incentives. Plus remember that a lot of the sales have been to current members for add ons based on extreme specials. Given the pace of VWL and BCV sales, SSR would be essentially sold out by now if SSR at all matched that demand. Frankly I expected it would take at least 10 years but it may do better than that, we shall see.

DVC also has a history of declaring resorts sold out before they truly are, reference VWL, VB & HH. Think of it much like a football game being sold out but a third of the seats are empty. And I agree with sleepy, if a new resort comes on board prior to SSR being truly sold out, I too think sales will slow dramatically further. I would expect EP, CR, Poly, AKL all to be more in demand at that time that SSR. But we shall see and we have several years to have this discussion all over again a few times.

 

[dvc-NE]

Have enough points to book your home resort day by day at 11 months out then at 7 months do the same day by day for where you desire. Go on the wait list individually for each day and keep the original reservation until you've gotten everything. Use year will be much more important in that scenario and as I alluded to already, you'll need enough points to keep both until the last day of the second reservation.

Dean: Could you clarify why you think there would be a need to book your home resort day by day at 11 months if it is SSR or OKW? Matt

 

[Dean]

Dean: Could you clarify why you think there would be a need to book your home resort day by day at 11 months if it is SSR or OKW? Matt

Actually you may not need to. But for higher demand times you might. I was trying hit the safest highest return method possible. I think it depends in part on when and what unit size you want and how badly you want to go that specific time as well as your home resort. Personally I'd never take the chance if I was set on those dates, even if I hoped to change later to a different resort. I have always hoped that DVC would change their reservation method to similar to the current rules with the Dining reservations. Say you could reserve up to a week when X day was available. I can see both sides of the argument but believe the positives would outweigh the negatives for the system in general and most members.

 

[NMW]

I agree with Beca that there people who buy VWL, BWV, and BCV who ONLY really want to stay at that resort. My husband is one of them. Our first trip was "home" to BWV. We loved it as much as we thought we would. Our yearly trips for the next TWO years are also already planned to be at BWV. I asked him if he wanted to try anywhere else after that and he said "well maybe the BCV, but at BWV we can get the Boardwalk view." This is from a former die-hard BC fan! Truthfully, we plan to always book our home resort at 11 mos and that is why we bought one we love. I have booked two stays so far (early Dec and mid-to-late Oct) BOTH times I was advised by MS to call day by day because these are popular times, and I was only competeing with other BWV owners!
We plan to add on 85 points next year at BWV. No incentive DVC could offer for SSR is worth that 11 mos window. I know others love SSR and I am happy for them. I think I've posted before that we have good friends who own at BCV and have only stayed there once. They always stay at OKW. So that's at least one owner not booking BCV at 11 mos!!

 

[FriendsOfEeyore]

I think that the issues for booking the smaller resorts comes more at the 2-4 month window. In the past, I have had success booking my home resort, BCV @ 11, 7, 5, 3 months out. Now, I can not get into BCV until the second week of July. Granted seasons / points have some bearing on capacity, but I have never had any problems booking BCV in May in the past. This year, I have had no luck.

I would have booked at the 11 month window, but we were not sure that we would make it with job changes and moving. We did not want 'block' someone else's vacation if we could not go. We will try SSR this May, but BWV, VWL & BCV are Booked SOLID.

I read so many posts about from SSR owners that are booking into other resorts, and I am very happy for them. But at the same time, it has changed, and my family's first, second and third choice will always be BCV. Then we will consider our other DVC options, because in the end it is still DVC and DisneyWorld!

Edward