Harvard Study - Social Distancing until 2022

[Dracula]

Not likely, those numbers were based on certain models. The information in those models was not correct, just like a lot of climate change models are way off, for the past 80+ years they have been predicting the polar caps would be gone in a few years. Guess what they are still there and there was more ice this year in the arctic this year, than there has been in the last 10 years. I’m not sayin that the climate does not change, it does and has changed year to year for as long as this planet developed an atmosphere. There is a pretty good chance that as of right now, the vast majority of the US population has already been exposed to this highly contagious disease. We do not have a vaccine for H1N1 ( swine flu) or SARS COV 2. How many people died in the past few years from these Coronavirus diseases? I haven’t heard of one, have you?

FYI, SARS-COV-2 is the same as COVID-19. As of today, 32,232 reported fatalities in the US with suppression measures in place since mid-March. It is not entirely surprising to see people who still believe the virus would magically disappear absent mitigation, since this is a forum for seekers of Disney magic. But these models were built by scientists who are smarter than most of us. I realize many these days confuse populism with science and somehow think that if a majority believes hard enough, magic things would happen (Tinkerbell, is that you?), but this is just not how it works. There is no democracy in science. Since 50% of the population has below average intelligence, I would rather trust the rocket building to the SpaceX engineers and the modeling of virus spread to the epidemiology PhDs.

 

[The Jackal]

I

FYI, SARS-COV-2 is the same as COVID-19. As of today, 32,232 reported fatalities in the US with suppression measures in place since mid-March. It is not entirely surprising to see people who still believe the virus would magically disappear absent mitigation, since this is a forum for seekers of Disney magic. But these models were built by scientists who are smarter than most of us. I realize many these days confuse populism with science and somehow think that if a majority believes hard enough, magic things would happen (Tinkerbell, is that you?), but this is just not how it works. There is no democracy in science. Since 50% of the population has below average intelligence, I would rather trust the rocket building to the SpaceX engineers and the modeling of virus spread to the epidemiology PhDs.

I trust unaltered data, there is now data from California that the infection rate is 50-85 times larger than what is known. That is they tested people for antibodies. The group they sampled in that county had a rate of 50-85 times, not percent, 50-85 times of the people who have tested positive. This disease is highly contagious, highly contagious, the vast majority of people infected do not show signs or symptoms or very minor symptoms. All we can do is wait for the data, scientists, doctors and people in all careers get things wrong when they don’t have proper data to make decisions. Just wait and see. That is all we can do. Like the infectious disease specialists making calls on this disease change recommendations based on new data. The estimated death toll is being recalculated and is is going way down.

 

[Dracula]

I

I trust unaltered data, there is now data from California that the infection rate is 50-85 times larger than what is known. That is they tested people for antibodies. The group they sampled in that county had a rate of 50-85 times, not percent, 50-85 times of the people who have tested positive. This disease is highly contagious, highly contagious, the vast majority of people infected do not show signs or symptoms or very minor symptoms. All we can do is wait for the data, scientists, doctors and people in all careers get things wrong when they don’t have proper data to make decisions. Just wait and see. That is all we can do. Like the infectious disease specialists making calls on this disease change recommendations based on new data. The estimated death toll is being recalculated and is is going way down.

This is great news. Most models assumed an infection fatality rate just below 1% across all demographic groups. I would take the new study implying the mortality rate is 50x lower with hope but also caution - there have been reports that the cutting of red tape at FDA allowed dozens of antibody tests on the market that cannot differentiate between SARS-COV-2 and other cold viruses. JAMA also published an article today and found that among the residents in Telluride, CO, very few have actually been infected. And the stories from Guayaquil, where the city has been overwhelmed by dead bodies, seem to indicate much higher mortality than a typical cold.

 

[rkstocke5609]

Science. The holy grail. The problem is that the models are constantly changing as the data changes. And, that’s what it should do. But, the media has created such hysteria that there are people that won’t leave their homes unless it is to go to the hospital. My question is, at what point is “the new normal” not worth living in? So many of the things we love to do have been forever altered or cancelled. Does a Disney vacation even sound appealing with 25% crowds, no pools and strange social distancing lines that visually are longer? None of this is appealing. No sporting events? Or, going to a football game with a 25% crowd? Or watching a game on TV with no fans in the arena or stadium? The economic fallout could be a catalyst for civil war in this country. At some point, the masses are going to demand a return to normalcy. They are going to demand their lives back because they aren’t going to continue to put the lives of the most vulnerable in front of their own desires for very long. I sure hope the time we are buying is enough to get the supplies boosted sufficiently. Oh, we won’t be waiting for widespread testing either. Even the scientists are admitting that’s a joke because you can test negative, and then go grab the gas pump and be positive 24 hours later. This is really going to be ugly, IMHO. If I didn’t need to work, I would find an island and go hide for a couple years.

 

[jlwhitney]

Science. The holy grail. The problem is that the models are constantly changing as the data changes. And, that’s what it should do. But, the media has created such hysteria that there are people that won’t leave their homes unless it is to go to the hospital. My question is, at what point is “the new normal” not worth living in? So many of the things we love to do have been forever altered or cancelled. Does a Disney vacation even sound appealing with 25% crowds, no pools and strange social distancing lines that visually are longer? None of this is appealing. No sporting events? Or, going to a football game with a 25% crowd? Or watching a game on TV with no fans in the arena or stadium? The economic fallout could be a catalyst for civil war in this country. At some point, the masses are going to demand a return to normalcy. They are going to demand their lives back because they aren’t going to continue to put the lives of the most vulnerable in front of their own desires for very long. I sure hope the time we are buying is enough to get the supplies boosted sufficiently. Oh, we won’t be waiting for widespread testing either. Even the scientists are admitting that’s a joke because you can test negative, and then go grab the gas pump and be positive 24 hours later. This is really going to be ugly, IMHO. If I didn’t need to work, I would find an island and go hide for a couple years.

I think in the end we just have to be patient. The media tends to skew the worst case scenarios , which rarely happen.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

Yes we need to be patient but it's getting harder with every passing day. I'm really trying hard to be patient, unfortunately that's not one of my virtues but I'm working on it!

 

[Dracula]

I

I trust unaltered data, there is now data from California that the infection rate is 50-85 times larger than what is known. That is they tested people for antibodies. The group they sampled in that county had a rate of 50-85 times, not percent, 50-85 times of the people who have tested positive. This disease is highly contagious, highly contagious, the vast majority of people infected do not show signs or symptoms or very minor symptoms. All we can do is wait for the data, scientists, doctors and people in all careers get things wrong when they don’t have proper data to make decisions. Just wait and see. That is all we can do. Like the infectious disease specialists making calls on this disease change recommendations based on new data. The estimated death toll is being recalculated and is is going way down.

New information released by the WHO today puts this in context. It seems that both worldwide and in the Santa Clara county in CA where this study was performed, only about 3% of the population has been infected until early April. If we assume that 60% of the population needs to get infected until herd immunity gets achieved, and the over 42,300 dead to date were infected by early April, this suggests that, left unmitigated, the coronavirus would kill over 1,260,000 in the general US population. This is certainly less than the 2,200,000 predicted by the Imperial College model - but how much do we trust the 42,300 people dead to date? I keep hearing anecdotal reports of people dying of pneumonia and not being tested for coronavirus - it is still difficult in many areas to get tested.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

WHO - and you believe WHO? WHO that didn't share unbiased information with the world? Really?

 

[Dracula]

WHO - and you believe WHO? WHO that didn't share unbiased information with the world? Really?

I really, really would like to stay out of politics, so I would phrase my answer carefully. Bias is not deliberately lying or misleading, but simply making mistakes because of existing preconceptions or lack of information. It is hard to think of anyone during this crisis that was consistently correct in messaging - all models are just predictions, extrapolations based on available data, and data reporting itself can be problematic as different parties may have different interests. Ultimately the number of infected people or deaths can easily be manipulated by changing metrics and access to testing, unemployment numbers are tricky because of how people get counted - what is more difficult to change is people reporting to ER with difficulty breathing, stock market / oil price valuations and overall deaths.

So yes, I do believe the WHO, but to the extent where they receive accurate data from the member countries to analyze, and they may have their own agenda - like everyone else.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

All I need to hear is “Harvard” to know that it probably is shoddy, politically motivated research.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

New information released by the WHO today puts this in context. It seems that both worldwide and in the Santa Clara county in CA where this study was performed, only about 3% of the population has been infected until early April. If we assume that 60% of the population needs to get infected until herd immunity gets achieved, and the over 42,300 dead to date were infected by early April, this suggests that, left unmitigated, the coronavirus would kill over 1,260,000 in the general US population. This is certainly less than the 2,200,000 predicted by the Imperial College model - but how much do we trust the 42,300 people dead to date? I keep hearing anecdotal reports of people dying of pneumonia and not being tested for coronavirus - it is still difficult in many areas to get tested.

Lol. WHO? I can’t think of a less professional organization of nobodies. I wouldn’t listen to anything WHO says. In fact, I would assume whatever line they are pushing to be opposite the truth. This is a cold virus. Period. With much lower death rates than the flu. Period. Enough already.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

I really, really would like to stay out of politics, so I would phrase my answer carefully. Bias is not deliberately lying or misleading, but simply making mistakes because of existing preconceptions or lack of information. It is hard to think of anyone during this crisis that was consistently correct in messaging - all models are just predictions, extrapolations based on available data, and data reporting itself can be problematic as different parties may have different interests. Ultimately the number of infected people or deaths can easily be manipulated by changing metrics and access to testing, unemployment numbers are tricky because of how people get counted - what is more difficult to change is people reporting to ER with difficulty breathing, stock market / oil price valuations and overall deaths.

So yes, I do believe the WHO, but to the extent where they receive accurate data from the member countries to analyze, and they may have their own agenda - like everyone else.

OK sure whatever you say, NOT!