GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[KBoopaloo]

Nonsense. Barely anyone is going to the parks.

But reopening of restaurants and theme parks and retail stores brought a lot of people back to work. Even without a lot of customers visiting just opening these things instantly created situations where people who had been not working and likely just sitting at home back into close contact at work which creates opportunity for spread.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Correlation is not causation

We have more than mere correlation. We have a-priori a reason to believe opening would lead to more spread. Bars. Restaurants. Some theme parks. They all opened.

 

[WickstarRunner]

It’s a nice catch in Fl. We can’t prove where the cases came from because they don’t trace. But the timing is the timing and a spike doesn’t just start on its own.

We don’t trace here either, but just a few weeks ago, we had a political rally with 5k in an indoor venue, no masks, no distancing. Up until that point we were under 100 cases a day and fairly steady, one of the safest states in the country. Today we hit almost 1k, on the quarantine list for New York. Our numbers have been slowly climbing for a week, 200, 300, 500, then boom, here we are. We ran no more tests yesterday than we have been. Can I prove the source? No. Would I be a fool not to see it? Yes

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the rally was in Orlando but the main outbreak in Florida is Miami. Did it help things? No, but it's not provable that the rally is the source either. Guess that's my main problem with this whole situation. Everyone goes around saying "Listen to the science" but science doesn't make assumptions, it waits for evidence. And yes I know that evidence isn't coming for reasons that I think we all understand.

We have more than mere correlation. We have a-priori a reason to believe opening would lead to more spread. Bars. Restaurants. Some theme parks. They all opened.

True, but my original response was at the idea that it was solely Universal opening in early June that lead to a spike. That idea is Correlation != causation. We definitely have enough proof that FL mishandled the reopening. That I wasn't arguing; just that Universal as the source isn't provable.

 

[JPPT1974]

Really have pros and cons of reopening. Due to the fact of the virus cases going up. But people need to work.

 

[RamblingMad]

Really have pros and cons of reopening. Due to the fact of the virus cases going up. But people need to work.

The virus doesn't care if people need to work. We need a system, so that people don't need to work during pandemics.

 

[cakebaker]

Really have pros and cons of reopening. Due to the fact of the virus cases going up. But people need to work.

There are going to be massive layoffs. Tourists are not going to come in sufficient numbers with Florida tanking. We’d all be better off if we just did what we needed to do to slow this thing down.

 

[Praying Colonel]

FWIW, I found this interesting: a statistician created a heat map of Covid cases in Florida over time, by age group:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283189875341029376

 

[msjprincess]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the rally was in Orlando but the main outbreak in Florida is Miami. Did it help things? No, but it's not provable that the rally is the source either. Guess that's my main problem with this whole situation. Everyone goes around saying "Listen to the science" but science doesn't make assumptions, it waits for evidence. And yes I know that evidence isn't coming for reasons that I think we all understand.



True, but my original response was at the idea that it was solely Universal opening in early June that lead to a spike. That idea is Correlation != causation. We definitely have enough proof that FL mishandled the reopening. That I wasn't arguing; just that Universal as the source isn't provable.

I'm pretty sure he/she is referring to the rally in Oklahoma

 

[WickstarRunner]

I'm pretty sure he/she is referring to the rally in Oklahoma

If so, I apologize for my own assumption

 

[cakebaker]

I'm pretty sure he/she is referring to the rally in Oklahoma

I was. And to be clear, the city with the largest outbreak here is the city it was held in.

 

[WickstarRunner]

I was. And to be clear, the city with the largest outbreak here is the city it was held in.

Mea Cupla, apologies

 

[anthony2k7]

Shows you how few it takes doesn’t it. but hardly any translates into thousands of people in the various venues that opened, with some of them requiring no masks at all. The timing is there, like it or not.

I agree with you on most things but I don't think universal opening was a significant factor from a theme park perspective.

I think anything indoors with masks off is likely a bigger issue, so yes indoor dining at universal and Disney.

But also everywhere else where masks aren't being worn. Visiting friends/family, working in offices/shops and malls not enforcing masks etc.

The problem with theme parks is that people have to do all the above in relation to them. You still have to eat. You have to do various things whilst travelling there where masks may not be worn.

Plus in Disney's case (not so much universal) it encourages thousands of people to be traveling across states and then potentially taking it back home with them.

 

[cakebaker]

I agree with you on most things but I don't think universal opening was a significant factor from a theme park perspective.

I think anything indoors with masks off is likely a bigger issue, so yes indoor dining at universal and Disney.

But also everywhere else where masks aren't being worn. Visiting friends/family, working in offices/shops and malls not enforcing masks etc.

The problem with theme parks is that people have to do all the above in relation to them. You still have to eat. You have to do various things whilst travelling there where masks may not be worn.

Plus in Disney's case (not so much universal) it encourages thousands of people to be traveling across states and then potentially taking it back home with them.

I don't think it's all Universal. There were a lot of parks that opened pretty much at the same time- Universal, Sea World, Legoland (where they didn't require masks) all at the same time as well as smaller parks I'm not even familiar with. Add to that, all the ancillary businesses that opened who survive off the parks traffic were opened as well along with bars- one of the least likely places people will wear masks and are usually in close contact with others. I don't think we really disagree all that much. I don't think walking around, with a mask on, outdoors in a fairly low crowd of people is particularly risky. But standing in lines- even though there is social distancing, we've all seen when it didn't work- eating indoors and as you say what it takes to get to those parks are huge contributors. And at the shopping venues, like CityWalk and Disney Springs, enforcement seems to much less strict and what is there to do but shop indoors and eat?

 

[dvcgirl67]

The open attack on our leading scientists and public health officials is truly one of the most disturbing things I've seen so far in this colossal mess. Every single day....I scroll through the news and think to myself..."I can't believe this is actually happening." And every single day....things seem to get a little worse, more off the rails and just completely and utterly nuts.

 

[Karin1984]

The open attack on our leading scientists and public health officials is truly one of the most disturbing things I've seen so far in this colossal mess. Every single day....I scroll through the news and think to myself..."I can't believe this is actually happening." And every single day....things seem to get a little worse, more off the rails and just completely and utterly nuts.

I was just watching a video on the movie version of the musical Rent and it started with an explanation of the Aids epidemic in the early 80s. And one of the remarks why the reaction to the disease was so slow was because it was not an in-your-face disease like Ebola. When your disease is clearly visible for all, think also plague or leprosy etc, it is easier for scientists to encourage people to take action. That Aids wasn't visible and slow, it could take years before you became truly sick, was a reason why governments were slow with responding. Covid is not as slow as Aids, but the fact that you cannot see if someone is sick, is working against us.

That and that we do not find it acceptable that people make mistakes or change their minds. Everyone in charge, especially experts, have to be right all the time.
It's not acceptable nowadays that in January at the beginning of the outbreak you are blase about it and think it won't go that fast, or it can't be that bad, and then later realize : Oops, I was wrong.

Admitting you are wrong is one thing, but it being accepted by others is something else. We see it here on the boards as well, you have one opinion and you stick to it. The phrase never said on the internet is: "You are right, you made me change my mind" when it comes to politics, religion or anything controversial.

 

[DisneyOma]

I'm finding it really difficult to believe FL deaths numbers.

My mom (who lives part time in FL but is up here in MA now) told me some of the deaths in her senior living area are being tagged as pneumonia, not COVID, although it's really not pneumonia season, is it?

I agree. I saw a tweet where they compared the death rates in a several states and FLs was definitely out of the norm. From what I remember, the other states were within tenths of a percentage point of each other. I will see if I can find it and let you know.

It may take me a while. I have an appointment today so I don't know if I can find it before I have to leave.

See above - they may be calling them pneumonia deaths?

Let me dispel the notion that parents had chicken pox parties because it was best practice.

As a parent of what were 8yr old twins back in the 80’s, I’m familiar with the practice. I was aghast at the idea back then. Parents did it to just get it over with because it was so catchy, but especially with other kids in the family. When it was going around then, I refused to let my girls do it. Even when one of them did catch it, I tried my best to keep the other kid from catching it. I failed, but not for lack of trying. It was always an awful idea.

And just as an aside, one of them now has shingles. The other is going for a vaccination.

Oh and our covid cases doubled today- no massive increase of tests either.

Back to covid for me....

I got chicken pox at age 22. I'd much rather have gotten them at age 8. I had severe nerve damage, and lots of scars. Took me a month to get back to work. It was horrible.

Yes, 16 hours, and if you read further along in that thread, there's another expert that discusses the 6ft thing inside. It's not enough. And 25-50% capacity, doesn't seem to make a difference either without masks. So, for example, people in restaurants without masks on are talking, eating, laughing...without masks on. If someone is infected, the tiny aerosol droplets from their exhaled breath can hang in the air for up to 16 hours. And...the more they talk, exhale, etc, it just fills up that air in that room....and then you can suck that in. It's why we see such a correlation between indoor bars and restaurants....and a spike in infections.

All I can say is....I can't wait for the movie someone makes of this whole thing. It's insane.

Exhalation isn't producing nearly as much aerosol as they used in their lab tests. There are more heavy droplets, not air-floating aerosol.

Wouldn’t this be considered a political post?

It was just the title embedded in the link, no commentary from the poster, so no, not a political post at all, IMO.

I have family that own a restaurant on Tybee Island Georgia. The area has had a large population from NY and NJ based on license plates since late April. A large number of people went south for vacation.

April vacation - all the way into June?

I'm in AZ (and from CA originally).

Heck, there's one salon in the East Valley that pretty much has had "influencers" driving and flying in non-stop for months now from CA, in particular, though other states, as well. Nearly her entire business seems to be based on CA SM influencers.

What is an influencer, especially a CA SM influencer?

People don’t go to Florida in the summer from up North?!

We go to WDW in August, but not to any other type of tourist destination like a beach - too hot, and we have plenty of beaches up here that are great in the summer. The only reason we go to WDW is that I work in a school and have summers off, but the heat in FL is just too nasty without all that nice AC pumped at us in WDW Northerners (without family to visit) like to go to Florida in the winter

 

[tippity]

This is why DH and I are doing our best to avoid this disease. It's not simply a "disease of the lungs" as we thought early on. This is a cardiovascular disease that they're still trying to understand. When I heard of the autopsies of patients with multiple organs filled with blood clots....well, that's terrifying stuff. Nope, it's not the flu, it's not SARS...it's truly a terrible disease if you get a bad course. No thanks. I'll hang out and post with you guys for the next six months or so.

Isn't it great that we can afford to do that?
Everyday, more and more people are losing their jobs, between May and May 5.4 million Americans lost their health insurance, and now people who rent are being faced with evictions by the end of the month. Yes, the virus can be dangerous, for some people. But the economic ramifications may prove more deadly to more people.

 

[tippity]

The open attack on our leading scientists and public health officials is truly one of the most disturbing things I've seen so far in this colossal mess. Every single day....I scroll through the news and think to myself..."I can't believe this is actually happening." And every single day....things seem to get a little worse, more off the rails and just completely and utterly nuts.

The problem is the leading scientists are providing theories, since their information is evolving daily. However, the media and politicians are treating this information as facts. There's a lot of public frustration, especially when everyone is sitting in limbo.

 

[KBoopaloo]

Isn't it great that we can afford to do that?
Everyday, more and more people are losing their jobs, between May and May 5.4 million Americans lost their health insurance, and now people who rent are being faced with evictions by the end of the month. Yes, the virus can be dangerous, for some people. But the economic ramifications may prove more deadly to more people.

But the economy will keep faltering even with things open as long as the virus isn’t contained because many, many people will self regulate and stay home even if their states are open. You can’t help the economy until you control the virus.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Isn't it great that we can afford to do that?
Everyday, more and more people are losing their jobs, between May and May 5.4 million Americans lost their health insurance, and now people who rent are being faced with evictions by the end of the month. Yes, the virus can be dangerous, for some people. But the economic ramifications may prove more deadly to more people.

No doubt about it. I've said many times in several threads on this board, that we are personally very fortunate to be able to "ride it out" at home. My business has been greatly affected, and so we are certainly feeling financial pain. But...we've always been diligent savers for our 22 years of marriage, maxing out all retirement funds and then some, and have no debt. Thankfully, DH is a software developer who has worked from home for many years. So far, so good with his job. His company is not giving any raises out to employees, but bonuses are still going out.

But there is no doubt about the economic pain causing harm to millions of Americans. If we had a national plan, and were all on the same page, we'd look a heck of a lot like Europe now, slowly opening up as a nation and getting back to some sense of normalcy. Instead, we have had a state by state ad hoc response that looks like insanity to many of us. I'm reading today that the administration is telling hospital systems to bypass the C.D.C and send data to the White House. Anyone paying attention will see that as an attempt to suppress the truth. And will make many of us with means less likely to participate fully in the economy.