Grand Floridian

[bakenatj]

I think you can be very confident that similar views (in name) will be the same number of points (or almost the same) as BLT.

My thoughts exactly. I think you can look at BLT and have really good idea of the point structure of GFV.

I don't know why there this personification that the GF is so much more expensive than any of the other Deluxe resorts that it's just going to be priced so high or points are going to be out of this world that only the super wealthy will be able to purchase there.

 

[DenLo]

My thoughts exactly. I think you can look at BLT and have really good idea of the point structure of GFV.

I don't know why there this personification that the GF is so much more expensive than any of the other Deluxe resorts that it's just going to be priced so high or points are going to be out of this world that only the super wealthy will be able to purchase there.

Some think that BLT's point structure is out of sight. And when you realize you can switch from a standard view villa for six nights at BLT to another DVC resort and end with with an extra night's vacation perhaps they aren't exaggerating too much.

But I wouldn't be surprised that VGF will be slightly higher than BLT just to prove GF is still the flagship. If you look at cash stays at GF it runs $55 to $60 per night higher for a garden view compared to the Poly. And $70 more per night than at CR. Disney still thinks GF is it's flagship and would expect it's DVC villas to priced in that manner as well.

 

[mjc2003]

I think you can be very confident that similar views (in name) will be the same number of points (or almost the same) as BLT.

I think this might be sort of true, but there are some obvious reasons why the price could be appreciably higher. Firstly, they will have far less (146 I think vs 280+ at BLT) villas. Less villas means it's easier to sell fast and at a higher price, with less incentives. Secondly, if you look at the shape of the building theoretically the entire left side (and front) would classify as MK views, the right side as Lake views. Coupled with the increased demand that results in limited supply, I think the Lake Views will be priced similar to BLT MK views. So I see the 1BR Lake Views at 290-465 points, depending on season. I think they will bump up the MK views to an even higher number. I don't think there will be any Standard view, or if there are it will be such a small number that you will be hard pressed to ever get them. And if you buy in, you will want to make sure you have enough points to get what is available, right? So you can't just assume you'll always get a standard view (if there are only 10-15 or these), if they even exist, so that means you have to buy enough for the Lake View. If you need about 350 points for a 1BR Lake View, you are at about $55k. (the other poster said he paid $28k for 300 BLT points, so while this isn't double it's quite a bit more money).

I also think the incentives will be nominal, and the new BLT pricing ($155) was intended to soften the blow of GFV being even a bit higher. I think GFV will start at $165-$175 per point, with a small incentive that will be short lived (perhaps bringing it to the $155 price). The pricing will quickly settle at the higher number, with no incentives.

Finally, and most importantly, I think you are comparing the cost per point to what BLT is now; you have to remember that BLT started in the $112-$120 range. So if GFV prices at $155 and above then it's close to being on par with what BLT is now, but many folks bought into BLT at $112 or thereabouts. So in reality the original buy in will be about 30% higher than at BLT, and when you combine that with potentially slightly more points per room...you come to a cost number that is appreciably higher than what BLT was 3 years ago.

My thoughts exactly. I think you can look at BLT and have really good idea of the point structure of GFV.

Again, partially true. I think you can look at the highest priced booking categories for BLT (at TODAY'S price of $155 per point, not the original $112), and you will get an idea of the point structure of GFV, though I still believe the points at GFV will be a bit higher for any apples-to-apples room categories. Supply and demand.

Also consider that BLT is a rather divisive design, which some people really can't stand. My wife won't stay there, we toured it once and she hated the style. While some do like the style and design, the allure is in the location. Juxtapose that with GFV, that has a design and palate that is much more universally appealing, and you will find much more demand for far less rooms.

 

[psac]

<snip>

Again, partially true. I think you can look at the highest priced booking categories for BLT (at TODAY'S price of $155 per point, not the original $112), and you will get an idea of the point structure of GFV, though I still believe the points at GFV will be a bit higher for any apples-to-apples room categories. Supply and demand.

Also consider that BLT is a rather divisive design, which some people really can't stand. My wife won't stay there, we toured it once and she hated the style. While some do like the style and design, the allure is in the location. Juxtapose that with GFV, that has a design and palate that is much more universally appealing, and you will find much more demand for far less rooms.

Totally agree with you. Aside from supply and demand, you also have to take the difference in cash reservations into account. I was helping someone who was looking to book a cash reservation for April with the special room only discount, and the cash price for GF garden view was higher than the Contemporary THEME PARK view. To me, I can't imagine the points not being higher than the BLT points. I could definitely see the lowest view at GF being the same or higher than the BLT MK views.

 

[drusba]

There are the usual two ways they can make GF more expensive than BLT, by requiring more points per night or by raising the price per point. Fact is they have already done the latter to a greeat extent. BLT's price when it first went on sale in Sep 08 was $112 a point and stayed there until Fall 2009 when it went to $120 and stayed there over a year. Then beginning December 2010, when they were already mentioning that BLT was starting to get close to selling out, the price just started galloping to its current $155 which makes one think that was being done in anticiapation of GF. Thus, there will likely be a further price increase before GF first goes on sale but reality is that most of BLT was sold for a price a lot lower than anything they will be charging for GF and the increase we will see will not be a large one over the current price.

Likewise, since they already have the target price set high with many who will believe that it is not even that much higher than BLT, they will not need to increase the nightly points that much to still make GF far more expensive than BLT ever actually was for most buyers. In other words, I suspect you will have many looking at GF as only a small increase, both price or point wise, over BLT when it first goes on sale which will help sales, when in fact it will necessarily be very expensive in comparison to what BLT actually was for most buyers.

 

[dclfun]

If I were interested in buying more points, which I'm not, I would never, ever pay todays prices. The price has literally tripled since we bought at OKW back in 95 and I have a problem finding the value in paying $155 pp. I have never had a problem getting a ressie at any of the DVC resorts at 7 months out as I am always very flexible with dates and we don't travel during holidays. I figure if I want to try out the villas at GF, I'll have no problem doing so with my points from other DVC resorts for which I paid much less.

 

[Albytaps]

Wow! I feel like we got a great deal on BLT now!

 

[Greysword]

I agree with mjc regarding the number of villas. The point cost per night is likely to be determined based on the number of villas available, which is why VGC are very high in comparison.

I would also like to add that we aren't sure of DVD's marketing strategy and target market. If the target market is more affluent people, then DVD may set the price per point at a very high level to give the perception of exclusivity, even within the DVC realm.

On another hand, DVD could set the price point (and/or point cost) high as a means to sell AKV units. VGF would be the lure to get new customers in the door, but when they can't afford the GF, DVD guides offer a"less expensive yet still GF accessible" option.

 

[McCrae]

I would use the villas at Grand Califorian as a starting point... Both flagship properties, relatively small number of units.

 

[Dean]

Some think that BLT's point structure is out of sight. And when you realize you can switch from a standard view villa for six nights at BLT to another DVC resort and end with with an extra night's vacation perhaps they aren't exaggerating too much.

But I wouldn't be surprised that VGF will be slightly higher than BLT just to prove GF is still the flagship. If you look at cash stays at GF it runs $55 to $60 per night higher for a garden view compared to the Poly. And $70 more per night than at CR. Disney still thinks GF is it's flagship and would expect it's DVC villas to priced in that manner as well.

DVC has a history of making similar situations the same. IMO, VWL should have been less than BCV and BWV but DVC elected to make them the same for simplicity. BLT is unique in many ways and I think it's the location and uniqueness that is the reason for the higher points, not simply point creep as a way to raise prices. I'd be very surprised if a standard view, Lake view or MK view wasn't the same, or nearly the same, as BLT. I think many of the members try to over think these type of issues and DVC generally tries to keep things fairly simple. I doubt the size will make any difference. Now they could do away with standard view like they did with BCV.

 

[arthur06]

DVC has a history of making similar situations the same. IMO, VWL should have been less than BCV and BWV but DVC elected to make them the same for simplicity. BLT is unique in many ways and I think it's the location and uniqueness that is the reason for the higher points, not simply point creep as a way to raise prices. I'd be very surprised if a standard view, Lake view or MK view wasn't the same, or nearly the same, as BLT. I think many of the members try to over think these type of issues and DVC generally tries to keep things fairly simple. I doubt the size will make any difference. Now they could do away with standard view like they did with BCV.

I would assume they would not have a standard view, or at least not worded as "Standard".

Standard View at the Grand Floridian is like saying, I am staying that the Spelling Mansion, but am sleeping in a closet next to the furnace.

 

[Dean]

I would assume they would not have a standard view, or at least not worded as "Standard".

Standard View at the Grand Floridian is like saying, I am staying that the Spelling Mansion, but am sleeping in a closet next to the furnace.

It doesn't matter, the principles are the same. That's exactly what happened at BCV t hough, they have standard view units without the standard view name and costs, actually most of the units. Whatever they label the views I'd bet they'll be roughly the same as BLT for comparable named categories. I too doubt they'll have standard views simply because I don't think the orientation of the resort will force a bad view like it does at BLT rather than as a way to increase the price. We'll see.

 

[mjc2003]

I'd be very surprised if a standard view, Lake view or MK view wasn't the same, or nearly the same, as BLT. I think many of the members try to over think these type of issues and DVC generally tries to keep things fairly simple. I doubt the size will make any difference. Now they could do away with standard view like they did with BCV.

I think it's clear that the raise in cost at BLT to $155 was to set the bar (on the low end) for GFV. So even if the points are similar, the cost is going to be about 30%+ more than what many paid for BLT. So effectively the cost IS appreciably higher. Sure, they can keep the points relatively similar (though I believe they will be higher, we will see) but the cost per point is the real key. The size will absolutely make a difference in that they won't have to do much by way of promotions, and the limited number of contracts will allow them to start the bidding at the current BLT price; do you think for a second that BLT would be 95% sold out if the price had been $155 all along? No way.
I also think the (lack of) size of GFV will allow them to sell this as exclusive access to a very limited number of contracts at their flagship resort. They will position the size as a selling point. Will it work? We will see, but I suspect it will and they will sell out rather quickly and for a very high price.

I am interested in seeing how they categorize the rooms that will be on the back of the "T", which presumably will be facing the parking lot. My guess is they'll throw some bushes out front and call them "garden view"; either way, they will probably be clever enough to only have a handful in this category, and while the points will be lower there will most assuredly not be enough of these rooms for anybody to buy just enough points for them. In other words, it's nice if you can get one but plan on needing enough points for the more "expensive" rooms.

 

[KPOP]

count me in with the crowd that is hoping for a 7 month reservation and using the points bought at other resorts...i'd love to stay at GF, but that's the only way this is going to happen for me

 

[Dean]

I think it's clear that the raise in cost at BLT to $155 was to set the bar (on the low end) for GFV. So even if the points are similar, the cost is going to be about 30%+ more than what many paid for BLT. So effectively the cost IS appreciably higher. Sure, they can keep the points relatively similar (though I believe they will be higher, we will see) but the cost per point is the real key. The size will absolutely make a difference in that they won't have to do much by way of promotions, and the limited number of contracts will allow them to start the bidding at the current BLT price; do you think for a second that BLT would be 95% sold out if the price had been $155 all along? No way.
I also think the (lack of) size of GFV will allow them to sell this as exclusive access to a very limited number of contracts at their flagship resort. They will position the size as a selling point. Will it work? We will see, but I suspect it will and they will sell out rather quickly and for a very high price.

I am interested in seeing how they categorize the rooms that will be on the back of the "T", which presumably will be facing the parking lot. My guess is they'll throw some bushes out front and call them "garden view"; either way, they will probably be clever enough to only have a handful in this category, and while the points will be lower there will most assuredly not be enough of these rooms for anybody to buy just enough points for them. In other words, it's nice if you can get one but plan on needing enough points for the more "expensive" rooms.

The price pp has gone up over time, nothing has changed there. If they had increased the points for the same room type, it would be on top of the price per point. The per point price only affects new buyers where points creep would affect all owners.

 

[kylmac]

Funny, we were just discussing this today but now I am having my doubts as $155.00 is quite expensive-we figured it would be similar to Bay Lakes which we own but unless DH gets an incredible raise then we might buy in a few years. Wow! I am very interested to see the announcements for when they start selling the units.
Elizabeth

 

[webepirates]

We were on the monorail last two weeks ago when it got held up at GF...had plenty of time to look around. Constructions was ongoing, def an active site, but we were quite amazed at the small size of the footprint. Unless its disproportionately towering (unlikely) thinking Exclusive (?$155+) and Jam Packed (wildebeests thundering...) Sales Rush on IO. In any case I'm sure it'll fly, no matter what.

 

[zavandor]

I think that for Disney building a small resort now makes a lot of sense.
Think to the VGC, it's small and to get a studio you may have problems at 7 months even for the low seasons. If you want to stay there, you must buy points there. Even resale prices are still high.
A big resort would be probably hard to sell with this economy situation.

So it makes sense to start small, sell high and see what happen in the following years. They can always build more, like they did with SSR and the THV

 

[sarah4770]

This is just hearsay... my guide said he anticipates VGF will start in the $130's per point with the discounts that they usually do upon opening

 

[Dean]

I think that for Disney building a small resort now makes a lot of sense.
Think to the VGC, it's small and to get a studio you may have problems at 7 months even for the low seasons. If you want to stay there, you must buy points there. Even resale prices are still high.
A big resort would be probably hard to sell with this economy situation.

So it makes sense to start small, sell high and see what happen in the following years. They can always build more, like they did with SSR and the THV

I suspect they would build it as large as they could without impacting the rest of the resort and other experiences too much. I'm sure they want the the height, etc to fit in with the rest of the GF. They potentially could have went out into the parking lot, across the street or took up existing buildings in some way. They could still do that I suppose but doubt they will. The real question is going to be what they will(?) do with the Poly. Not much room there either. Maybe they could take up the Luau cove and encroach on the Wedding Chapel from the other direction as well. Or maybe they could look at the area opposite GF that's open though I seem to recall hearing it's not stable enough to build on.