Grand Californian Sellout Poll

[sjdisneywedding]

When you are only talking about approx 750,000 points to sell, of which a large amount will go to members, it will only take a small percentage of AP holders and regular people to sell out.

true, theres no doubt its going to sell out extremely quickly. but I dont think current AP's holders are being overlooked/underestimated as was being stated earlier in terms of how quickly it will sellout.

for some dvc will work , probably for even more it doesnt

 

[wdw4life]

true, theres no doubt its going to sell out extremely quickly. but I dont think current AP's holders are being overlooked/underestimated as was being stated earlier in terms of how quickly it will sellout.

for some dvc will work , probably for even more it doesnt

We will, perhaps, never know other than anecdotically. Does DVC release the sales stats on things like that?

 

[sjdisneywedding]

We will, perhaps, never know other than anecdotically. Does DVC release the sales stats on things like that?

I dont think they make the info available, but I bet they know one way or the other how it all shakes out

 

[dwelty]

true, theres no doubt its going to sell out extremely quickly. but I dont think current AP's holders are being overlooked/underestimated as was being stated earlier in terms of how quickly it will sellout.

for some dvc will work , probably for even more it doesnt

According to Disney, in 2005 there were over 500,000 annual passholders at the DLR. This would mean that if only 2% of them bought small 75 point contracts, all 750,000 points would be purchased just by that 2% of AP holders that are interested.

 

[SuzanneSLO]

One of the reasons that there are so many DL AP holders is that it may not be a significant financial invesment for SoCal residents. We planned a 3 day trip last Dec and bought 3-day PHs. On day 3, we upgraded to a SoCal AP for the total cost of $5 each and received a $10 Gift Card back due to a AAA holiday promotion. So the upgrade to AP was really a no brainer.

-- Suzanne

 

[sjdisneywedding]

According to Disney, in 2005 there were over 500,000 annual passholders at the DLR. This would mean that if only 2% of them bought small 75 point contracts, all 750,000 points would be purchased just by that 2% of AP holders that are interested.

divide that in 2 to get a starting point

250,000 families of 2

or as little as 125,000 4 member households that would be on one single contract

still decent numbers but

I cant see any correlation directly between being a DL AP and wanting to buy into DVC

I see the complete opposite correlation, cant imagine most of those 125-250,000 families are looking to drop that kind of money on something that is intended to be a several overnight stay per year which is planned well in advance.

It goes directly against the probable travel habits of most of those AP holders.

plus as it is now, they are not getting in for 75 points, they would have to drop about 16k up front and 1k per year on MF's fir 160 points

unless of course they are already members, then its a no brainer, but then not directly related to them being AP holders

 

[Longhairbear]

I have to respectfully disagree with you. The AP holder in California is a VERY different animal, than the AP holder in Florida. Most AP holders are single, and/or partnered. Family AP holders just might be a minority.
It has been our experience with our Disney friends, that are AP holders, are perfect DVC marketing targets, that just might snap up points once they understand how DVC works.
To alot of California AP holders, DVC has been an unknown until recently. Most AP holders in CA. have never been to WDW, and have no reason to do so. This was true of a friend of ours. He took a tour just to pass the time, and after finding out that in addition to us, that other friends of his are DVC members. Those particular California AP holder friends of his, only use their points for extended stays a GC, and annual DCL trips. He decided to buy at SSR. He was a WDW virgin, and now goes more often than we do.
There are alot of pretty serious Disney AP holders, that can never get enough of their favorite park. They spend lots of money staying weekends on and off property, as well as full weeks for special events. They will always continue to spend money on accomodations for the rest of their lives at the resort. Once they do the math, and if they can afford it, they'll buy in.
Another group of Disney fans, is the very wealthy Club 33 membership. While I do not know how many of them are already DVC members, you can be sure they will toss more money out for a GC DVC contract. They already spend thousands monthly for dues, and dinner bills. And that is after waiting for years to become members, and paying thousands in initial fees. They attend "Club 33 only" events that go well into the night, and alot of them shell out for rooms at the GC. Part of the Club 33 member perks is free admission into the park, but only when they have lunch or dinner reservations. So, they also are AP holders for the days they don't want to dine at Club 33. If Disney ever builds Grand Villas at DLR, you'll see Club 33 members wanting them to impress friends.

divide that in 2 to get a starting point

.I cant see any correlation directly between being a DL AP and wanting to buy into DVC

I see the complete opposite correlation, cant imagine most of those 125-250,000 families are looking to drop that kind of money on something that is intended to be a several overnight stay per year which is planned well in advance.

It goes directly against the probable travel habits of most of those AP holders.

. but then not directly related to them being AP holders

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I have to respectfully disagree with you. The AP holder in California is a VERY different animal, than the AP holder in Florida. Most AP holders are single, and/or partnered. Family AP holders just might be a minority.
It has been our experience with our Disney friends, that are AP holders, are perfect DVC marketing targets, that just might snap up points once they understand how DVC works.
To alot of California AP holders, DVC has been an unknown until recently. Most AP holders in CA. have never been to WDW, and have no reason to do so. This was true of a friend of ours. He took a tour just to pass the time, and after finding out that in addition to us, that other friends of his are DVC members. Those particular California AP holder friends of his, only use their points for extended stays a GC, and annual DCL trips. He decided to buy at SSR. He was a WDW virgin, and now goes more often than we do.
There are alot of pretty serious Disney AP holders, that can never get enough of their favorite park. They spend lots of money staying weekends on and off property, as well as full weeks for special events. They will always continue to spend money on accomodations for the rest of their lives at the resort. Once they do the math, and if they can afford it, they'll buy in.
Another group of Disney fans, is the very wealthy Club 33 membership. While I do not know how many of them are already DVC members, you can be sure they will toss more money out for a GC DVC contract. They already spend thousands monthly for dues, and dinner bills. And that is after waiting for years to become members, and paying thousands in initial fees. They attend "Club 33 only" events that go well into the night, and alot of them shell out for rooms at the GC. Part of the Club 33 member perks is free admission into the park, but only when they have lunch or dinner reservations. So, they also are AP holders for the days they don't want to dine at Club 33. If Disney ever builds Grand Villas at DLR, you'll see Club 33 members wanting them to impress friends.

families being a minority or not, point is there aint 500,000 separate people looking to buy a dvc contract.

guess we will just differ on opionion then because I will believe it then when I see it, if they are not staying overnight now at why would they in the future.
it makes no sense

the people staying overnight now fir longer periods, well thats a different story, of course they would be interested

doubt club 33 members are going to impress their friends just by becoming dvc members, thats probably already taken care of.

there will be plenty of AP holders buying in and plenty that wont...just like the general public

 

[sjdisneywedding]

They spend lots of money staying weekends on and off property, as well as full weeks for special events. They will always continue to spend money on accomodations for the rest of their lives at the resort. Once they do the math, and if they can afford it, they'll buy in.
.

you are saying it yourself....this sums it all up

its STILL a matter of doing the math and seeing if it adds up. nothing new, thats dvc now.

IF you stay over frequently, then it might. if not then it wont


just because you have an AP and go ALOT means nothing

you could go 365 days a year and DVC may be the worst thing for you

 

[Longhairbear]

I was thinking that with the HI DVC being added to the list, that getting a unit at GC DVC will be even tougher than previously thought. Many may prefer an overnight, or longer stay in CA. before heading to HI. Especially if Disney suddenly adds a HI cruise from here.
We might be hearing of the second DLR DVC sooner than we think.

 

[dwelty]

I was thinking that with the HI DVC being added to the list, that getting a unit at GC DVC will be even tougher than previously thought. Many may prefer an overnight, or longer stay in CA. before heading to HI. Especially if Disney suddenly adds a HI cruise from here.
We might be hearing of the second DLR DVC sooner than we think.

I agree, this will be a hot ticket to get. I do think that the Hawaii anouncement may slow the sell out of points at GCH if only a little. Hawaii is the number 2 out of state vacation destination for Californians (after Las Vegas). We plan to add on in Hawaii and go every 3 years.