Good profit report frm disney!!!!

Bob O

<font color=navy>Voice of Reason<br><font color=re
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Walt Disney Co., the second-largest U.S. media company, will probably report later today that fiscal second-quarter profit surged 87 percent, bolstered by higher advertising rates at its ESPN cable-television sports network.

Profit likely rose to about $430.6 million in the three months ended March 31, according to the average estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. A year ago, net income at the Burbank, California-based company was $229 million.

An increase in advertising sales at ESPN, ABC Family and the Disney Channel cable networks and growing attendance at the company's theme parks may help Chief Executive Officer Michael Eisner rebut claims by former directors Roy Disney and Stanley Gold that he's mismanaged Disney.

``Disney is hardly a company firing on all cylinders, but it's improving,'' said Brian Barish, president of Denver-based Cambiar Investors LLC, which manages $2.4 billion, including about 2 million Disney shares. ``ESPN is doing great. Sports programming gets some of the highest advertising rates.''

ESPN is the only U.S. network that carries all major North American professional team sports -- baseball, football, basketball and hockey. The cable division may contribute 65 percent of Disney's quarterly profit, Lowell Singer, an analyst at SG Cowen & Co. in San Francisco, said in a report. SG Cowen doesn't provide ratings on stocks.

Revenue for the quarter is expected to rise 8.1 percent to $6.85 billion, the average estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Disney is expected to report profit of 21 cents a share in the quarter, the average of 24 analysts polled, compared with 11 cents a year ago.

Film Studios, ABC

The former directors fault Eisner for failing to invest in the parks and for not turning around the fourth-place audience ranking of the unprofitable ABC network, which Roy Disney and Gold have said is one of Eisner's ``major failures.''

Film studio profit may fall 30 percent from a year earlier because of costs for ``The Alamo,'' ``Hidalgo'' and ``Home on the Range,'' Jessica Reif Cohen, an analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York, wrote in a report.

Eisner, 62, the longest-serving chief executive among companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 19 years, failed to win the support of 45 percent of the shares voted at Disney's annual meeting in March. Roy Disney, nephew of founder Walt Disney, and Gold are leading a campaign to oust Eisner.

Disney shares have dropped 47 percent from a record closing high of $43.63 on April 28, 2000. In the same period, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has declined 25 percent. Disney shares yesterday rose 88 cents to $22.98 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Eisner, who was paid $7.25 million in salary and stock in fiscal 2003, declined to be interviewed for this story, spokesman John Spelich said.

Cable Network Profit

Operating profit at Disney's cable division may rise 16 percent to $585 million, mostly because of ESPN, which is now in its ninth straight quarter of audience-ratings growth, Merrill's Cohen said. Ratings for Disney Channel and ABC Family also rose, she said in an April note.

Eisner has told investors that business is improving at the company's parks in California and Florida. Profit at the parks unit fell to its lowest in almost a decade in the fiscal 2003 second quarter because the Iraq war and terrorism fears cut tourism.

``We had a very strong spring-break period and very encouraging trends in our bookings,'' Parks and Resorts President James Rasulo said last week in an interview at the opening of Disneyland's ``Tower of Terror'' attraction. ``Everything that we've seen happen is completely consistent with this notion of gradual recovery.''

Crowded Parks

Disneyland President Matt Ouimet said attendance at the Anaheim, California, park has been showing ``very positive'' trends, pointing to the Easter holiday.

``There were days when we had to redirect people either from Disneyland to Disney's California Adventure, or vice versa,'' depending on crowds, Ouimet said.

Disney's parks and resorts will account for 19 percent of profit, S.G. Cowen's Singer said in an April research note.

Roy Disney, 74, and Gold, 61, have said rising profit at Disney is simply a rebound from low levels.

The two have publicly campaigned to oust Eisner since they left the board last year. They plan to nominate their own slate of directors for next year's shareholder vote unless Eisner resigns. Eisner's contract expires in 2006.

In addition to complaints about Disney's operations, the dissidents have said the board doesn't hold Eisner and management accountable and wouldn't tolerate ``constructive dissent.''

Pension Funds

A group of state pension fund managers have said they plan to meet with Eisner and the board on May 21 to discuss ``performance and governance.'' The funds, with combined assets of more than $500 billion, include the California Public Employees' Retirement System, California State Teachers' Retirement System and funds in New York, Ohio, Connecticut and North Carolina.

In a March letter to Disney Chairman George Mitchell, North Carolina Treasurer Richard Moore said Disney has little interest in generating long-term shareholder value for investors. Moore called the company's campaign to support Eisner and the current board a short-term public-relations campaign.

ABC last month promoted Stephen McPherson to president of prime-time programming after Lloyd Braun, chairman of the division, and Susan Lyne, president, left. That shift, a month before advance sales of commercial time for next season, may hurt the network, said advertising buyer Andrew Donchin at Carat USA.

ABC Sales

ABC is expecting sales of ad time for the 2004-05 season to go well, Eisner said in an interview at Disneyland on May 5.

``I hear that it's looking very positive,'' Eisner said. ``There's no way for me to predict what somebody else is going to do.''

McPherson's promotion was part of a management shakeup that included the promotion of Anne Sweeney to co-chairman of Disney's media networks unit from president of ABC Cable Networks.

``ABC continues to be the fly in the ointment,'' Cambiar's Barish said. ``They haven't been able to fix that. It's been abysmal.''
 
That's VERY good news, but I think that the ramifications re. M. Eisner and R. Disney are a little tenuous at this early stag - let's wait and see how it all pans out :)



Rich::
 
There were days when we had to redirect people either from Disneyland to Disney's California Adventure, or vice versa,'' depending on crowds, Ouimet said.
They had me in their corner until I read this. They've ever had to redirect people from DCA to Disneyland? Oh come on!!!
 
PG, it only has had to have happened once for it to be true.

So much for Roy and Savedisney. The most we can hope for now is another uprising at next years meeting but if Eisner keeps the numbers looking good and he usually does...We'll have him untill his contract expiration.

On a side note just imagine the support he'd be getting from Wall St. if the movie division was having the same kind of year this year that they had last year...Scary!
pirate:
 

PG, it only has had to have happened once for it to be true.

Now come on, its ok to say its a ridiculous statement without endangering your spot in the car pool.

Clearly the insinuation is that it happened much more than once.

Even so, has anyone seen a report of this ever happening at all? Disney actually telling people DCA is too crowded today, so go over to the less crowded DL?

On a side note just imagine the support he'd be getting from Wall St. if the movie division was having the same kind of year this year that they had last year...Scary!
The support isn't all that strong, really. After two "strong" earnings reports, the stock is where it was prior to the Comcast announcement.

If you adjust for the overall change in the market, DIS might be up a tad, relatively speaking.

But if Wall Street is impressed, they haven't shown it yet.
 
Ok nice round of applause for Q2 results. Enjoy it while you can, as I highly doubt the April, May, and June Q3 results will be as shiny. Alamo, HOTR, Around the World, will drag on the numbers.

What do folks think about the revised Fairytale package for the parks this year? Though this is still a good deal, it's not as attractive as last year.

Also, how will the announced DL celebration for NEXT year play into folks plans for this year? Would you wait? I know we're not going this year, but are looking forward to a trip next summer

Peace
G4L
 
Saw a media analyst on CNBC a couple of hours ago and he was discussing Disney's results.

While good, he said that if you exclude one time occurences, the growth is not nearly as strong as it first appears. The two examples he gave were a decrease in reserves in Latin America, and the losses associated with the Super Bowl from last year.

He also talked about ESPN's numbers looking better this year due to the way the numbers are booked. No monkey business mind you, just that part of its improvement is due to this, and it will "even out" next year.

Park/Resort growth is good, though he pointed out its coming off down years when the Iraq invasion was a big concern.

The question was asked about Eisner being solid until the end of his term and whether he might seek another contract. The response was "Yes", but he only talked about the period leading up to the end of the contract, so I'm not sure he heard the part about seeking another contract.

Scary thought, though.

Anywho, the above may explain why the Street's reaction to the numbers hasn't been very strong.

That and the fact that 45% of the shares aren't thrilled with the CEO.
 
Gee Matt, should I bother to have an opinion anymore? Forget that my statement was absolutly correct, even though I can't support the fact that it actually happened. I only meant to point out that it's entirely logical that on at least one abborational day DCA was more crowded that DL. Heck, I've been to WDW on a Memorial Day Saturday when Animal Kingdom was packed to the rafters. We left there and went to Magic Kingdom, expecting to be turned away and yet we toured the Park with among the smallest crowds I've ever been in at MK. So anything is possible.

RE: the earnings, while it may be your opinion that the St. isn't "strongly" behind Eisner, I personally have heard little credible dissent other than appreciation or criticism depending upon earnings expectations. Wall street is a giant brothel and their opinion on Eisner's ability and worth has nothing to do with anything Walt ever stood for. Roy and Stan are constantly being labled "dissident stockholders" and their opinions are close to being reported as crybabies whining because they didn't get their way.

Eisner has already defended the fort. He will remain until his contract expires. We must hope that he doesn't wish for an extention because I don't believe there is enough backbone on the board to say no to him if he does...
pirate:
 
I have my doubts that Disney as we know it will make it to the end of Esiners contract. I have a feeling that a fire sale is just around the corner.
 
I badly doubt that M. Eisner will stay past his contract, or that he will even stay until said contract expires. If you were Eisner, heralded by Wall Street and described as a "shark", hunting down deals and increasing market share, would you be too happy that your latest job in the Magic Kingdom has caused your reputation to quite literally plummet? Despite the job, despite the wage, despite the prestige, I think that his vanishing reputation will upset Eisner and may encourage him to execute this rumoured "early retirement due to poor health" - maybe he'll become a non executive director?
The Disney we see now will change, yes. But I don't think it will by much; it needs to retain the current image. A possible shift could be in regards to theme parks - the recent expansionist craze may give way to an in-filling stage where the smaller parks are added to. I don't know. But I do know that kings rise, kingdoms fall and at the end of it all, things change :)



Rich::
 












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