General question - perception/reality of "Deluxe" pricing

[ww52]

It will take some work (annual pass discount? Didnt' even know it existed - worth considering).

Understand that our general timeframe is not flexibles - it has to be July. And yes - we'll consider YC as well.

For example, right now I simply went into the Disney website and clicked on Explore Resort Hotels. BC shows "from 520 a night excluding tax". Selecting a garden view and looking at July 2019 I get 460 a night excluding tax. They offer no discounts on the site nor ask any questions that would indicate any discounts are available. Someone booking blindly using the website would likely overpay.

Not disagreeing with ANYONE - please understand. Maybe there are other links I'm missing - but when the time comes I'm sure I'll use a TA like Dreams to help me.

However, I do feel $500 a night including tax is far more realistic than $300. Not saying I don't believe they can be had at $300 - it's just that the site doesn't show that - so maybe it's hit and miss - which is why I'd use a TA.

 

[Average Joes]

I read a recent article that noted the annual percentage increase at a few resorts since the 1990s. They were around 3.5-4.5%. Doubling the present room cost would seem to be too much based on historic numbers. However, you may want to factor in recent increases more heavily. I did not look into what those were.

 

[Marionnette]

The Treehouse may be a good option. And they are not expensive at all. Though admittedly I forget off the top of my head how many they sleep

THVs sleep 9. Two queen beds, a set of bunks, sleeper sofa and sleeper chair. 3 bedrooms. Only 2 bathrooms. Full kitchen. Nice deck instead of a balcony. Very remote and isolated. Cheaper than a grand villa but pricier than a 2 BR villa which sleeps the same number of people and has 2-3 bathrooms, depending on the resort.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

THVs sleep 9. Two queen beds, a set of bunks, sleeper sofa and sleeper chair. 3 bedrooms. Only 2 bathrooms. Full kitchen. Nice deck instead of a balcony. Very remote and isolated. Cheaper than a grand villa but pricier than a 2 BR villa which sleeps the same number of people and has 2-3 bathrooms, depending on the resort.

But the bunks are shorties. Do not put adults you like in those bunks.

 

[Marionnette]

But the bunks are shorties. Do not put adults you like in those bunks.

Agreed! Great for kiddies but not something a grown up would want to spend a week sleeping in.

 

[DisneyWishes14]

I'm sorry if this has been mentioned already, but you may want to look at Mousesavers.com. They list current rack rates for all WDW hotels (2018 and 2019) plus current and historic discount releases. It should give you a good idea of how the rates increased from 2018 and 2019, plus historic discounts.

https://www.mousesavers.com/walt-di...ls/disney-world-resort-hotel-discounts-codes/

For fun, I just priced out Beach Club, standard view, July 14 - July 21, 2019 (7 nights), with 7-day PH and the regular dining plan for 2 adults and 2 children (9 and under for ticket and dining pricing). Total, at rack rate, is $7,038. Add 10% per year until 2025 and you're at about $7400 per room. Multiply by 4 and you are at about $25,600. Based on that, I would probably start aiming to save at least $30K for the trip (adjusting for numbers of children, ages at time of trip, etc.). That's at rack rate. Unless something drastic changes, fingers-crossed, you would be able to get a room-only or package discount in July. If you don't have time to track down the discounts yourself, a reputable, ear-marked TA would be able to do that legwork for you.

 

[ww52]

I read a recent article that noted the annual percentage increase at a few resorts since the 1990s. They were around 3.5-4.5%. Doubling the present room cost would seem to be too much based on historic numbers. However, you may want to factor in recent increases more heavily. I did not look into what those were.

I'll start paying attention each year. I just read one that put the 2018 increase for deluxe at 5-7%. At the high end, 7% compounds to 60.5% over 7 years. So I think I'll go with that - given a possible recession / downturn somewhere in the next 7 years, 7% average seems reasonable. (Not a political statement, just economic reality - we're bound to have one given the the fact the last one was about 10 years ago).

Possibly a larger jump when Star Wars land opens (though maybe not? That's really a niche.) And certainly one for the 50th.

 

[AngiTN]

It will take some work (annual pass discount? Didnt' even know it existed - worth considering).

Understand that our general timeframe is not flexibles - it has to be July. And yes - we'll consider YC as well.

For example, right now I simply went into the Disney website and clicked on Explore Resort Hotels. BC shows "from 520 a night excluding tax". Selecting a garden view and looking at July 2019 I get 460 a night excluding tax. They offer no discounts on the site nor ask any questions that would indicate any discounts are available. Someone booking blindly using the website would likely overpay.

Not disagreeing with ANYONE - please understand. Maybe there are other links I'm missing - but when the time comes I'm sure I'll use a TA like Dreams to help me.

However, I do feel $500 a night including tax is far more realistic than $300. Not saying I don't believe they can be had at $300 - it's just that the site doesn't show that - so maybe it's hit and miss - which is why I'd use a TA.

People usually start at Special Offers, not at Explore Resort Hotels.
Even when you have a set time to travel. We have set dates to travel too.
Heck, just start at the home page and they point out the special offers for you.

 

[ww52]

Thanks Angi!

 

[Mome Rath]

And just remember, the discounts come at different times of the year as you get closer to the time you want to go. So, you will really start the planning more than year in advance, but the discounts may not come until later.

Also don't forget one of the bigger discounts can come as a Bounceback discount; if you go to Dis the year before your big trip you may be able to book a bounceback for the following year as long as you know your dates. For approximately half the year it is free dining, and the other half is room only. So, if you or anyone going with you that specific July goes down to Disney the year before, they can check the bounceback offer for those dates.

Yes, if you get a Disney TA they will monitor discounts for you, but you may need to get them to go ahead and book a rack rate room if you have a definite hotel and time period you are wanting, and then try to get the discounts for you as they pop up. I think you are doing the right thing by perhaps over-figuring the room cost so you can budget accordingly for a trip that big.

 

[Hopefully]

Well, guess it depends on how young they are, or young at heart, LOL

It is nothing to do with age. They’re small

 

[ww52]

Assume a 7% room increase / $500 with tax current estimate / that's about $800 in 7 years. Times 4 rooms times 6 nights rounds up to a nice even 20,000.
(We're not paying meals or park tickets or transportation to/from WDW for the family btw).

So it's a matter of how I get there. Straight savings from post-tax income would require something less than $250 a month (assuming a "safe" risk free interest rate of near 0% as it is today). That's probably the easiest way to handle it.

Or I can put money away right now build up to 20,000 after taxes. At a tax rate of say 25% and a investment rate of say 8%, I'd need to put away $13,000 which would end up at and net 20,000 AT.

Either way, it's doable for me. Not without some sacrifice of course but certainly manageable.

OK - I can start that today once I figure out which direction. Then I can concentrate how we're paying for the trip we're taking in four years for the 50th (just paying for my wife and I!)

Thanks MUCH for the discussion! So enjoyable to share with other Disney fans!

 

[AngiTN]

It is nothing to do with age. They’re small

It was a joke, in all honesty. I wasn't serious about an adult in one

 

[AngiTN]

Assume a 7% room increase / $500 with tax current estimate / that's about $800 in 7 years. Times 4 rooms times 6 nights rounds up to a nice even 20,000.
(We're not paying meals or park tickets or transportation to/from WDW for the family btw).

So it's a matter of how I get there. Straight savings from post-tax income would require something less than $250 a month (assuming a "safe" risk free interest rate of near 0% as it is today). That's probably the easiest way to handle it.

Or I can put money away right now build up to 20,000 after taxes. At a tax rate of say 25% and a investment rate of say 8%, I'd need to put away $13,000 which would end up at and net 20,000 AT.

Either way, it's doable for me. Not without some sacrifice of course but certainly manageable.

OK - I can start that today once I figure out which direction. Then I can concentrate how we're paying for the trip we're taking in four years for the 50th (just paying for my wife and I!)

Thanks MUCH for the discussion! So enjoyable to share with other Disney fans!

As long as you realize that there is no way you will pay $800 a night for one of the rooms. At least not unless you just want to throw the money away. I mean, you CAN, if you want to. But you don't HAVE to. Though I'll be honest and say my crystal ball says the rooms will not be that much by then not even rack rate. And for sure not discounted rates, not at approx $300-$350/night in July of this year (since that was in the past you can't really go back and look that up now can you?) and looking up July of 2019 is irrelevant as there are not promos out for July of 2019 right now. So you are just going to have to take the word of people who went and take the word of what they paid for Deluxe rooms in July. I mean, I can find a bill and send you a copy if you really want. So you'll be saving WAAAAAY more than you need. Which is never a bad thing of course. Better more than less for sure

 

[J'aime Paris]

I'm sure the questions you receive are quite specific.
I don't think its a TA's job to answer general room rate questions when all the person has to do is go to disneyworld.com and whoa all the info they seek is there.

No, I stated that potential guests will ask about "anything and everything". Certainly some questions are specific to our places, but many are not.

And I do think that is exactly a TA's job.

If someone were to go to disneyworld.com and do all the research themselves, they might as well book on their own too...
no TA needed...

 

[ww52]

Angi -
Certainly I'll be VERY motivated to get discounts since this will be room times 4; and I do believe you and others got rooms at a deluxe for $350 with tax.

I'll probably look at July 2019 as a sort of trial run of this later this year or whenever the promos come out.

 

[ww52]

If someone were to go to disneyworld.com and do all the research themselves, they might as well book on their own too...
no TA needed...

If I could comment (on my own thread) - there may be a bit of a disconnect here that causes the disagreement between you and "Queen" - my trip is SEVEN years away. So I do think the opinion was "don't waste a TA's time asking question for the year 2025 when so much is likely to change before then - including whether the trip even happens at all."

And I agree. Yes, I;d expect a TA to answer questions if I'm contemplating a trip in the next year or so. But that far out I do think it's asking a bit much of them.

 

[AngiTN]

Angi -
Certainly I'll be VERY motivated to get discounts since this will be room times 4; and I do believe you and others got rooms at a deluxe for $350 with tax.

I'll probably look at July 2019 as a sort of trial run of this later this year or whenever the promos come out.

I will add, if you did want to use that figure as the total for your own room and food, then you have a great target total to work with. Even if you aren't looking at using the dining plan, just looking to put the money aside to cover the food, that $800/per night for room, ticket and food, is not a bad figure. You did mention you were NOT paying those things though, for the other rooms. So they'd be less.

Study the link someone posted up above, for Mousesavers and their tracking of the historical discounts. They give you just about all the figures you'll want, and then some, for the past 5 years or so. You'll have a great idea of the trends and will likely be able to guesstimate what the trends will do in the next 5 years or so. When discounts come out are getting harder and harder to follow but they are in a general month and they are far enough in advance to plan a trip. Plus, they make it easy to do your preliminary bookings for dates and then one quick phone call, or even easier, an adjusting online, to apply the discount when it comes out.

 

[DisneyGirlMI]

Sooooo...I’m one of these people that keeps track of everything and has a spreadsheet for everything. We started staying at the BC in 2011 (7 years ago. ) Now, these are August rates, not July, but in 2011 we paid $360/night. I am now pricing out for 2019 and it is $480/night (which includes the $35/night fee to have a third adult in the room. So hopefully that can help a little with where prices go in seven years.

 

[ww52]

DisneyGirl -
No - you're not the only one - except I have mine backed up somewhere that I can't find. And it's probably not in the detail I need.

But much thanks! That's certainly not much of an increase over 8 years (subtracting the $35 a night in 2019 - assuming it wasn't part of the $360 in 2011.) Less than 3% compounded.

Of course we were still coming out of a recession that I suspect hurt Disney pretty bad. I'd probably feel better assuming 7%. But doubling in 7 years seems very unlikely after all this help from everyone, which makes me feel much better.