Future Recession: Which DVC resale Resorts drop fastest

[Carouselofplanning]

why tie up more? I remember our trip we first talked with a DVC rep. Cold winter and we were in the warm Florida sun. The day before we talked to a family who was at Disney for the fifth year in a row, although they were not DVC. We asked didn’t they think of going somewhere else? Dad said certainly, but everyone enjoyed Disney and it was just so darn easy.

Some like the familiarity of the same place year after year. Some of the ease has gone away with the loss of luggage service, etc. But as a place to go when it’s cold up north that has a lot to do and wonderful resorts, it makes sense for some to buy more. Perhaps it is seeing that when you have the points you make sure to break away from the work cycle and take off to use them. It’s not a one size fits all, and when you have discretionary capital, why not more in an experience you enjoy? You can’t take any of it with you.

I’m not disputing the attractiveness of a Disney World trip, or that DVC is a good idea with psychological benefits, I was just commenting on the wisdom of “more points” being the default decision current owners make.

 

[mkatsy]

i wonder if there are differences between locals still working and those retired?

While we stayed a month, I worked. Park times were limited to my days off and evenings.

In retirement, I see us popping in any day/time. Even would buy the Incredipass because I want to be at Disney during Christmas. Don’t like the crowds, but if we are not with family, I can’t think of another place I enjoy more for Christmas decorations, etc.

Most people that are local and still working (myself included) have experienced the frustration that comes with family visiting on vacation. It seems like there is ALWAYS someone visiting the park. In April I have three separate groups visiting and each “would love to see you in the park” … honestly, I get it … they have paid a fortune, have all their reservations set, and it just feels ‘easy’ to them for me to ‘pop over’ … but it’s actually not. The MK is an ordeal in itself. I prefer to meet people at Epcot, and preferably after the sun goes down there is no parade crowd to contend with and I don’t have to take time off work. Now, if I were retired I’m sure I would be more flexible.

 

[Cfabar1]

And, I'd expect to see a lot of discounting of rooms. During the dot com bust of 2002 and all the way through the 2008-2010 recession, I was getting offers of 30-35% off deluxe resort rooms. Those huge discounts forestalled my decision to buy DVC for almost a decade. This deep discounting to fill rooms may re-occur, leading to a flattening or even a decline in DVC resale prices, and greater "bonus offers" from Disney to entice direct buyers.

that kind of deal is already common.... seems to me they will need to make the savings larger this go around... AP cash rate discount this summer is 40%...

 

[Cfabar1]

I’m not disputing the attractiveness of a Disney World trip, or that DVC is a good idea with psychological benefits, I was just commenting on the wisdom of “more points” being the default decision current owners make.

Much of my oscillation is "more points" or "just sell the whole thing"....

 

[Mirabell Rose]

Cash stays typically can be had much closer to the date of stay, which is a plus. However, OTUP I figure are a good deal if you use less than 10 years. I say this in that you can get SAP for about $100 and dues about $10 a year. So at $20 for a OTUP, the ten year cost of additional points is about the same. After that cheaper to buy.

I read that Las Vegas is seeing a big slowdown and the article claims that is usually a bellwether for other vacation destinations. So, time will tell if it hits Disney.

So, if there’s about to be a fire sale for DVC new, my bet is on Aluni (sp?) and RIV if the cabins are a part of Lakeshore Lodge, or if the cabins are not a part of Lakeshore Lodge then the cabins.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I’m not disputing the attractiveness of a Disney World trip, or that DVC is a good idea with psychological benefits, I was just commenting on the wisdom of “more points” being the default decision current owners make.

I agree it is for some. For us it was not as it took 12 years to do our first add on. It just took that long for me to have enough saved that I felt comfortable putting it towards more points, and I did OTUP many times during that 12 years.

Our guide for our original purchase I really liked. He sold a ton of contracts and had a lot of years working for DVC. He was honest and low pressure, and I remember him saying that DVC was only part of the cost of Disney, and that should be considered when deciding how much to buy. It was really good advice, and part of why we didn’t just add more points quickly.

 

[DisneyFanSea]

Cash stays typically can be had much closer to the date of stay, which is a plus. However, OTUP I figure are a good deal if you use less than 10 years. I say this in that you can get SAP for about $100 and dues about $10 a year. So at $20 for a OTUP, the ten year cost of additional points is about the same. After that cheaper to buy.

I read that Las Vegas is seeing a big slowdown and the article claims that is usually a bellwether for other vacation destinations. So, time will tell if it hits Disney.

So, if there’s about to be a fire sale for DVC new, my bet is on Aluni (sp?) and RIV if the cabins are a part of Lakeshore Lodge, or if the cabins are not a part of Lakeshore Lodge then the cabins.

The previous allure of Vegas is that it was a cheap vacation for the quality of resorts you get. Now it is no longer cheap and the quality is no longer there. Gambling isn't enough to bring in people. I feel like it was retirees and 20 year old millennials making Vegas a hot destination to visit. The retirees cant afford it anymore, the millennials either have moved on from that lifestyle or have kids and avoid vegas. Gen-z as a whole are facing an incredibly tough new grad job market, Vegas is the last place they seek a vacation.

Vegas was already experiencing big slowdown right at the time that there was vengeance travel post covid. No one will go into debt to visit Vegas, except those with a gambling addiction. But you bet there are plenty who will go into debt to visit Disney. I don't see Vegas at all as an indicator for how the vacation market it doing.

 

[Cfabar1]

The previous allure of Vegas is that it was a cheap vacation for the quality of resorts you get. Now it is no longer cheap and the quality is no longer there. Gambling isn't enough to bring in people. I feel like it was retirees and 20 year old millennials making Vegas a hot destination to visit. The retirees cant afford it anymore, the millennials either have moved on from that lifestyle or have kids and avoid vegas. Gen-z as a whole are facing an incredibly tough new grad job market, Vegas is the last place they seek a vacation.

Vegas was already experiencing big slowdown right at the time that there was vengeance travel post covid. No one will go into debt to visit Vegas, except those with a gambling addiction. But you bet there are plenty who will go into debt to visit Disney. I don't see Vegas at all as an indicator for how the vacation market it doing.

Vegas has many regional competitors that compete in the main areas they compete:
1. Quality Resorts have been much more plentiful to find throughout the country... Whether it is the "entertainment architecture" of the 90s or the "upscale" look at Aria or Cosmopolitan, you don't have to go to Vegas to get that...
2. Gambling has become much more regional - and has largely been replaced by Sports Betting/Gambling apps right on your phone... no need to sit in McCarran Airport anymore...
3. Shopping can be done online, and in many other (arguably more interesting) cities that will sell the same luxury wares...
4. Shows/Concerts - especially for mid-range acts lack the draw and appeal they used to. Certainly not worth the effort of flying all the way to Las Vegas... There's a reason why Top of the World Supper Club isn't inside the Contemporary Resort anymore...

Vegas, in my view is stuck in the 90s... Disney has tried - and has been largely successful in modernizing...

Then Vegas has largely priced itself out of business as well....

 

[matt_in_nh]

My thoughts are vero and Hilton and then high volume resorts. The ones hard to get like grand cal and poly will be more resilient.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Vegas has many regional competitors that compete in the main areas they compete:
1. Quality Resorts have been much more plentiful to find throughout the country... Whether it is the "entertainment architecture" of the 90s or the "upscale" look at Aria or Cosmopolitan, you don't have to go to Vegas to get that...
2. Gambling has become much more regional - and has largely been replaced by Sports Betting/Gambling apps right on your phone... no need to sit in McCarran Airport anymore...
3. Shopping can be done online, and in many other (arguably more interesting) cities that will sell the same luxury wares...
4. Shows/Concerts - especially for mid-range acts lack the draw and appeal they used to. Certainly not worth the effort of flying all the way to Las Vegas... There's a reason why Top of the World Supper Club isn't inside the Contemporary Resort anymore...

Vegas, in my view is stuck in the 90s... Disney has tried - and has been largely successful in modernizing...

Then Vegas has largely priced itself out of business as well....

When is the last time you've been to Vegas because they aren't stuck in the 90's they have completely changed what they used to do. Gambling isn't their draw anymore. The pandemic killed the long-time "show time Vegas" aspect. Instead they court the more wealthy visitors, at the expense of many, but that's who they are going after. That and the younger clientele who don't drink and gamble the same way as before. The Sphere, as annoying as it is to have killed basically the last remaining free parking, is an incredibly successful way of transitioning to the newer style of shows rather than the olden days.

Did people really go to Vegas to shop for things that you could get online? I have never in all the times I've been to Vegas seen people shop for things that they would get online. You're shopping in two categories cheap Vegas style/logo'd things OR high end luxury...well add a 3rd Formula One merch which you can find pretty prevalent now in Vegas. I've never heard of anyone going to Vegas for a quality resort...you go to Vegas to go to Vegas, no one is going to Vegas staying at Aria because it has an upscale look, you go to Vegas and then choose to stay at Aria.

In the casinos is sports betting--it's in their sportsbook areas and generally speaking I've seen them be busy enough though it does depend just what sports event is on.

Your last sentence is really the only IMO accurate assessment you've got. That has along with pandemic-related things has been a big issue for them between the paid parking, the resort fees (which are a big complaint), the more upscale restaurants and lack of cheap alternatives, etc.