There’s more going on than a hedge against reallocation. My advice is a hedge on resale value anyway.
A fixed week is supposed to cost 10% more to use so that, among other things,
DVC could re-allocate their charts and not have to cough up points (like they would now for me with my Poly fixed week), but also, so using the fixed week would be a premium.
But.
IF the week is cheaper - and available - at the 11 month window, you can always cancel and rebook at the cheaper cost.
In that case, you’d only need the premium if the room wasn’t available at 11 months.
I believe that one of the drawbacks of Riviera-only owners is they will NEED to book at 11 months to get what they want, and so, somewhere down the line after sellout, getting a standard studio at 11 months is always going to be a competition, every booking day. This is what I’ve always believed the real drawback of the resale restrictions will be, and it won’t become apparent until sometime after sellout, when resale owners reach a critical mass. This will hamper all owners at the 11 month window, because direct owners will also have to compete with the 11-month booking behaviors of resale owners.
In that case, having a fixed week will be a bargain, because that 10% will also cover the savings of not having to book a premium room to get anything,
Also. If you don’t ever use the fixed week, you get the points, so it costs you nothing to buy one if you’re buying 150 pts anyway - which most new Riviera owners are.
There is no downside. If the room is avail at 11 months, cancel and rebook. If you want something else, cancel and use the points elsewhere. The guarantee only has value if it’s needed to secure the room, and IN that case, it will be an immense value. I believe that as there are more resale Riviera-only users booking at 11 months to ensure they get what they want, this will almost certainly be the case for standard studios at 11 months once resale owners hit a critical mass, and that’s why it’s a great hedge for Riviera.