Future DVC Annual Dues forecast

[3guysandagal]

Being a newbie to the whole DVC thing as of DEC 07 and the DIS, I have been doing some figuring as part of my "homework" before buying into DVC
Just wondering if anyone would be interested to see MY #s.
This is only a "guesstimate" of course using past dues as a reference in order to get an idea of what we will be looking at down the line.
DW is really into it, but Im a figures type guy.

I am sure someone out there has done this as well but a search didnt show anything, but again, maybe I havent got this site figured out yet.

Hope this is the right place to post, as again, just a newbie.

GREAT INFO collected so far!!!
Thanks everyone!!

PS: Thanks to WebmasterDoc once again for the chart!

Edit again: Noticed Good Ol Gal's response to another link that basically are the same #s. I was looking future wise though eg: 15-25yrs ahead at a certain %.

 

[Nikisha421]

I would love to see your numbers

 

[toyboy]

3 guys,
I'll take a look. I'm curious what you come up with for some of the newer spots that don't have a track record yet.

 

[culli]

Ditto on seeing what you got give it to us

 

[Cap]

I would like to see your numbers. While I have past history for BWV, VB, and HH, I don't have any info for the other resorts.

Cap

 

[chalee94]

here is the actual history of DVC annual dues at all resorts.

honestly, i'm not sure why one guy's crystal ball would be better than others for determining the future.

 

[3guysandagal]

Hi everyone!
Wow! it was a month ago I posted.
Tried to post late last night but the boards were down.
I went to look for what I had and now I cant find it!
It was on paper, not PC.
I will redo what I did and post ASAP.
After posting the OP I found this...

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=1678447

Which led to this...

http://personalpages.tds.net/~rb/DIS/DVC/DVCDuesHistory.htm

After running the numbers on this as far as %/yr I think I averaged 3.6% across the board.
I cannot qoute on what I found per site, will have to run them to be precise.
When I posted I had used 4% as a guess, b/c I had not found this link yet, and went high because of our guides comments (SSR DVC guide, "3-4%").
Who, by the way has still not contacted, although I have not called again.. ( http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=1675042&page=3 ) post #34.

Anyway, I will get back with the NEW #s according to the chart as above.

Chalee94, No crystal ball, just guesstimating using the #'s.

BTW : The OP was my 3rd post, I think.

BTW again...I still have not bought DVC....but still thinking!!!!

 

[3guysandagal]

First of all, please excuse the charts appearance, I did this manually, not on a program.
Second of all, this is just a guesstimate and maybe 3.6% over the long run is unrealistic, but....who knows...maybe.
The first chart is based on average increase on each particular resort using past dues as a guide.
Please note that the last figure is based on end year of contract, not the year given at the left of the chart.
That is, OKW=2041, BWV=2046 etc.
Also, This does not take into account what Disney will do with dues as contracts reach the end of their term.
These resorts will be 50 yrs old, will dues go down?
Or will they truly increase as to more maintenance needed due to their age?
Unless extensions are offered, who would want a contract with 2 yrs left at these prices?
Who would even bother paying them the last few years? (without an extension)
Blips in the economy can be a factor, but looking at the 9/11 years performance, this helps to factor a blip in.
Now, I may have ran 1 yr over on some of these, so take it for what it is, a projection, not gospel.
I also rounded the percentages shown so your #s may differ, I went to 4 decimal points when figuring, and rounded the cost also.


Dues projection using each resorts average increase...

...........OKW.....BWV.....VB.....VB(sub).....HH.......VWL......BCV.....SSR....AK

% INC..3.623....2.633...4.766....4.608.....4.25.......3.8.......4.1......2.6.....2.0

2008....4.56......5.04.....6.04......4.71.....5.16......4.87......4.80....4.21....4.71
2013....5.45......5.74.....7.62......5.90.....6.35......5.87......5.87
2018....6.51......6.54.....9.62......7.39.....7.82......7.07......7.17
2023....7.78......7.44....12.14.....9.26......9.63......8.52......8.77
2028....9.29......8.48....15.33....11.60....11.86.....10.27.....10.72
2033...11.10.....9.65....19.34.....14.53....14.61....12.37.....13.10
2038...13.26....10.99....24.41....18.20....17.99.....14.91....16.02
2043...14.76....12.52....30.81....22.79....22.15....17.97.....19.59
2048..............13.53....38.89....26.09....25.09.....21.65.....23.95
2053..........................40.74...........................23.32.....28.12


WOW! VB seems incredibly high, and probably does not reflect what will happen accurately.
I have to ask, as I do not know, what is VB(sub)???
It had a year where it increased 23.3%. YIKES!
I did not factor SSR and AK because I did not think there was enough past data to give an accurate view.
Although BWV and SSR are both at 2.6%, I felt BWV's had enough past data to make it at least plausible.
I did factor them all in in the next chart, which is an average of all resorts increase...3.6%.

I think this next chart gives a more accurate projection, especially VB.


Dues projection using 3.6% across the board...


.........OKW......BWV......VB....VB(sub)....HH......VWL......BCV......SSR.....AK

2008...4.56......5.04.....6.04.....4.71.....5.16.....4.87......4.80.....4.21.....4.71
2013...5.44......6.01.....7.21.....5.62.....6.16.....5.81......5.73.....5.02.....5.62
2018...6.49......7.18.....8.60.....6.71.....7.35.....6.94......6.83.....6.00.....6.71
2023...7.75......8.57....10.26....8.01......8.77....8.28......8.16.....7.16.....8.01
2028...9.25.....10.22...12.25.....9.55....10.47....9.88......9.74.....8.54.....9.55
2033...11.04....12.20...14.62....11.40...12.49....11.79....11.62....10.19...11.40
2038...13.18....14.56...17.45....13.61...14.91....14.07....13.87....12.16...13.61
2043...14.65....17.38...20.83....16.24...17.79....16.79....16.55....14.52...16.24
2048..............19.32....24.86...18.06....19.78...20.04....19.75....17.32...19.38
2053.........................25.75.........................21.51....22.75....20.68...23.13
2058................................................................................21.42...26.65


Once again, who knows what is or is not going to happen when the contracts reach their half life.
As people sell off with only 10yrs left (lets say) Disney may have a hard time getting them resold, so dues may have to reflect this to make them more palletable to new owners for such a short term.
Again, this is not figuring in extensions.
I know it opened my eyes to what a DVC may be costing me in 15yrs (SSR@200pts=$832(2008) vs SSR@200pts=$1432(2023))
Now before I get flamed, there are so many factors still to look at.
Cost of living goes up, so do room prices, so do wages, so a $500 increase over 15yrs may not be out of line.
And staying in a Grand villa would still be a good deal even at $1432 a year, although 200pts/yr wont get one, so figure 2.5yrs(500pts)=$3580.
Still cheaper than CRO, especially with what they will probably cost to stay in in 15yrs.
Lets just hope Disney keeps the resorts up to par maintenance wise so we will still want to stay at a DVC in 30yrs.
If it is anything like their computer systems, we can only pray.

So there you have it, MY projections.
Thanks for the interest and I hope this helps someone in their decisions..

 

[TisBit]

No flames, but as you stated yourself, these are apples to oranges. $25 in todays dollars is totally different than $25 in 2053! Also, you state you can't get a villa for 200 pts....I am not sure where you get that, points will never increase overall.

I think you can look at the maintenace of Disney resorts historically as well. Take Contemporary and Polynesian, which opened in the 71...now almost 37 years later they really look as good as day one. While there have been rehabs, etc...which would impact MF's, I doubt they will become dumps. I think it goes back to the whole numbers game, where you can make them say whatever you want, for or against. But it was some interesting information.

 

[Granny]

Being a newbie to the whole DVC thing as of DEC 07 and the DIS, I have been done some figuring as part of my "homework" before buying into DVC
Just wondering if anyone would be interested to see MY #s.
This is only a "guesstimate" of course using past dues as a reference in order to get an idea of what we will be looking at down the line.
DW is really into it, but Im a figures type guy.

Assuming you are planning on going to WDW for the duration of the contract, the question is not "how much will dues go up each year?".

It is "will dues go up faster or slower than WDW resort room rates?". None of us know where labor, materials, insurance, tax rates and all the components of dues will go and at what rates. But if our dues went up at a higher rate than WDW rooms, DVC becomes a less attractive long term purchase.

On the other hand, historically many here have shown that DVC dues have gone up at a lower rate than WDW resort rooms, and thus DVC becomes a better and better deal each year as we project out to the future.

So I'll go back to my original premise...if you plan on going to WDW and staying on-site over the course of the contract, the key to DVC "value" remains its comparison to the alternative.

Just my two cents. YMMV.

 

[3guysandagal]

No flames, but as you stated yourself, these are apples to oranges. $25 in todays dollars is totally different than $25 in 2053! Also, you state you can't get a villa for 200 pts....I am not sure where you get that, points will never increase overall.

Inflation is a bugger, and I agree that $25 now will not be $25 in the future, but I thought I covered that. Maybe not clear enough.
I was referring to a GV at 500pts (+/-).
Yes, I realize the points will never increase, 500pts now is still 500 in 2053.

I think you can look at the maintenace of Disney resorts historically as well. Take Contemporary and Polynesian, which opened in the 71...now almost 37 years later they really look as good as day one. While there have been rehabs, etc...which would impact MF's, I doubt they will become dumps. I think it goes back to the whole numbers game, where you can make them say whatever you want, for or against. But it was some interesting information.

Once again I agree, rehabs will be likely over the years and I DOUBT they will become dumps. It was just a thought and something to consider. I dont think anyone will disagree that dues WILL GO UP, the question is by how much. I really started this just to see what DVC was going to cost me in my later years after retirement, and if it would still be affordable once on a fixed income. It is a large, long term investment, and I dont part with my money without trying to look at a lot of different scenarios. Thank you for the feedback on this.

 

[3guysandagal]

Assuming you are planning on going to WDW for the duration of the contract, the question is not "how much will dues go up each year?".

It is "will dues go up faster or slower than WDW resort room rates?". None of us know where labor, materials, insurance, tax rates and all the components of dues will go and at what rates. But if our dues went up at a higher rate than WDW rooms, DVC becomes a less attractive long term purchase.

On the other hand, historically many here have shown that DVC dues have gone up at a lower rate than WDW resort rooms, and thus DVC becomes a better and better deal each year as we project out to the future.

So I'll go back to my original premise...if you plan on going to WDW and staying on-site over the course of the contract, the key to DVC "value" remains its comparison to the alternative.

I agree 100%.
I do not have any figures on room rate increases over the last 10-15yrs, but you are correct that if dues go up less than room rates, DVC is a winner choice.
This is why I figured out these #s, in hopes one day I will find something regarding rate increases over the years.
I am pretty sure DVC will still be a good deal in the years to come.
How much of a good deal will remain to be seen.
I am not trying to be a pessimist, I consider myself a realist, and any combination of factors can make or break the good deal aspect.
If we only knew what was to come in the future, we'd be millionaires 10 times over.
Man I wish I bought Microsoft stock (or a lot of others) way back when, but oh well.
Only time will tell.

 

[Granny]

I agree 100%.
I do not have any figures on room rate increases over the last 10-15yrs, but you are correct that if dues go up less than room rates, DVC is a winner choice.
This is why I figured out these #s, in hopes one day I will find something regarding rate increases over the years.

It's really hard to get the real story on room rates since rack rates are not good indicators since so many people use codes, AP discounts and such. So it will be hard to track room rate increases.

I am pretty sure DVC will still be a good deal in the years to come.
How much of a good deal will remain to be seen.

I tend to agree with you. Keep in mind that by law Disney cannot arbitrarily raise DVC dues to increase profits....but they certainly can do that with resort room rates.

I am not trying to be a pessimist, I consider myself a realist, and any combination of factors can make or break the good deal aspect.
If we only knew what was to come in the future, we'd be millionaires 10 times over.
Man I wish I bought Microsoft stock (or a lot of others) way back when, but oh well.
Only time will tell.

I don't think a real pessimist could ever buy something like DVC. It requires some faith that Disney will not only keep the DVC resorts in good shape...but also faith that Disney will continue to invest in the parks and amenities that make WDW a great vacation spot. A lot can happen in 40+ years, so none of us really has a crystal ball that will say what things will look like then.

Many people crunch numbers and feel that their DVC investment pays for itself in about 8-10 years. There are a lot of assumptions made in doing those calculations but if you agree with them, then the value of DVC is better since it doesn't rely on the entire length of the contract to make it a worthwhile purchase.

I think that you should look at the purchase of DVC from every angle that's important to you. Those who have "done their homework" and researched the pros and cons of DVC are almost always very satisfied owners. Those who make simple assumptions or don't really understand the program are more likely to be dissatisfied with their purchase.

So it's great that you are doing everything to check this out and be comfortable with such a large purchase. I think you will be glad you did.

 

[3guysandagal]

Thanks again Granny!
By the way, can you help me with this VB(sub) thing? What is it?

 

[chalee94]

Thanks again Granny!
By the way, can you help me with this VB(sub) thing? What is it?

IIRC, early buyers at VB were promised a larger resort with smaller dues (i.e. spread out among more owners.) plans changed and some original owners were subsidized accordingly. those (sub) rates don't apply to any new buyers (DVC or resale) at VB.

 

[mopee3]

I find this discussion about the dues sort of interesting and I will tell you why.
My family has owned a piece of a beach house on the Pacific Ocean in Washington State since 1908. During the last 100 years families have grown up and added more people, people died, etc. etc., until in the last 20 years it has come down to my uncle, my cousin, and my 4 siblings. My uncle in now married to a woman 35 years younger and she is not interested in keeping up his 2/3 share of the property, while my cousin, 1/6 share, has her own property next door and now not interested in keeping up her part of the “Big House”. That leaves us 5 kids to take care of a huge house, sleeps 18-25 in a pinch. Unfortunately only one other sibling wants to keep it up. All shares are undivided just like DVC but no one wants to pay to keep it up except myself and sister, so………..I am happy, did you hear me, happy to pay dues that will pay the taxes, keep up the buildings, get the rooms ready for me, and let me spend my money on the light side!!

Thanks to whom ever dreamed up this thing called DVC!!

Monty

 

[SB in KY]

We bought points at OKW in 1995 and I could resell them today for considerably more than I paid for them...in addition we had 5 years of free park tickets (through the end of 2000....and at that point we had almost recouped our original investment in just the cost of the free park tickets)....so for the price of annual dues we have vacation each year....and that is quite a good bargain actually....I do not have any intention of selling our points and we did not buy to make profit on the deal....but for us it has been a great investment that has given us a lot of priceless memories....dues has not gone up nearly as much in the past 12 years as my gas bill or my utilities or our health care costs or even my grocery bill...what happens 25 years from now is just a guess.

 

[tubtruck]

Pay will also go up in the next 50 years or so

 

[TisBit]

Inflation is a bugger, and I agree that $25 now will not be $25 in the future, but I thought I covered that. Maybe not clear enough.
I was referring to a GV at 500pts (+/-).
Yes, I realize the points will never increase, 500pts now is still 500 in 2053.

I acknowledged this

but as you stated yourself, these are apples to oranges.

I think a lot of people can try to make the numbers as they want. If you only compare a Grand Villa, you sell yourself somewhat short. As our guide pointed out, you can get something like 6 studios for the points of a Grand Villa. I think the Grand Villas are great for that very rare Grand Gathering, not as a basis for what points you need or dues you should be paying.

I was actually expecting dues to be forcasted much higher, and I still expect that those estimates will be low.....but it will be all offset and you just cannot forcast what something will be in 35 years. As the PP stated, OKW original owners are actually ahead, maybe SSR and AKV will be the same way in another 15 years.....or maybe not.

 

[wildernessDad]

I've been assuming a 4 % increase for future planning purposes and adjust yearly once I get the actual numbers.