FP+ is Live! Magic Bands in the park!

[mom2rtk]

I bet they overbook the FP+ like airlines based on no shows rates. They will have very good data.

And I would have thought they would have enough ADR no-show data to overschedule those accurately. But apparently there were still lots of empty tables while walk-ups were turned away. And they still needed to add the CC hold. (Or maybe just couldn't resist monetizing it. )

 

[Rileygirl]

edited to delete

 

[Squidgyness]

Another Random thought (inspired by mom2rtk yet again)

The 2 biggest things that most disers hate about this new system

1) There is only 1 E fast pass guarenteed per day
2) That is only 3 in total guarenteed per day.

Now, we did a lot of speculative number crunching, and its fairly obvious why the 3 cap in total, and 1 e only guarenteethat is across the boards for all 4 theme parks: its because of the worst park and busiest time AK and Xmas. Its the lowest common denominator. They cannot guarentee more due to this, and they were not going to come out with a slogan that says 4.5 at mk in march, but 6.7 in september, and 5.6 at studios in nov,, ect, ect.

However, if Disney in fact has a comprehensive computer control base in place, that they are confident in, and if they can get 80% of both onsite and offsite to play their game, well then

Maybe we should not be looking at the lowest common denominator. Maybe, although NOT GUARENTEED and SUBJECT to CHANGE, Disney can offer 5, 6, 7 or 8 on a consistent basis at most of the parks, most of the time. 3 prebooked, and several the 'day of'.

Maybe thats how they think guests are going to love this new system. Maybe they are laughing at our whining.

and this brings me directly to the FOTL concept of fp+
I will talk about this next, because no expirey still is confounding me.

Leaving aside the assertion that 80% or even a majority of guests would prebook every day...

They wouldn't have final confirmation of how many people will be at the park that day until the day before.

If they changed FP+ allocations 60 days out and then it turned out that more people turned up at that park on the day for whatever reason, it would throw a spanner in the whole system.

They'd have to put a safety margin in place for guests turning up without them knowing, or else lines might spiral and angry guests result. Don't forget those people using FP+ still need to use standby lines at some point.

If Disney miscalculate their FP allocation and longer standby lines occur, it could be nasty.

This is one of my main problems. You can't always predict what everyone is going to do, and it doesnt take a majority of people to affect something. If they knew with 90% certainty that 25k people were going to MK that day, and then on the day 28, 29 or even 30k people turned up because of offsite guests not informing Disney of what park they were going too, or because of weather conditions, or for whatever reason or whim, that really skews the system. Imagine if all those 3-5k extra people went straight to one of the headliners. The line would be significantly longer than Disney forcasted.

This system is based, ultimately, on park guests and their predictability. I think they overestimated it. Think back to the analogy earlier in the thread about paths being planned but not used. You can try to direct people, but you can't make sure they all go the same direction you want. That's where I see the fundamental flaw.

 

[Rileygirl]

edited to delete

 

[mom2rtk]

Another Random thought (inspired by mom2rtk yet again)

The 2 biggest things that most disers hate about this new system

1) There is only 1 E fast pass guarenteed per day
2) That is only 3 in total guarenteed per day.

Now, we did a lot of speculative number crunching, and its fairly obvious why the 3 cap in total, and 1 e only guarenteethat is across the boards for all 4 theme parks: its because of the worst park and busiest time AK and Xmas. Its the lowest common denominator. They cannot guarentee more due to this, and they were not going to come out with a slogan that says 4.5 at mk in march, but 6.7 in september, and 5.6 at studios in nov,, ect, ect.

However, if Disney in fact has a comprehensive computer control base in place, that they are confident in, and if they can get 80% of both onsite and offsite to play their game, well then

Maybe we should not be looking at the lowest common denominator. Maybe, although NOT GUARENTEED and SUBJECT to CHANGE, Disney can offer 5, 6, 7 or 8 on a consistent basis at most of the parks, most of the time. 3 prebooked, and several the 'day of'.

Maybe thats how they think guests are going to love this new system. Maybe they are laughing at our whining.

I've had a feeling all along that's where they would head with the numbers. That it would be a moving target. I could be wrong, but if they go with dynamic pricing AND dynamic FP allocations, they are putting themselves dangerously close to complicating too much for the average visitor. And isn't that the visitor they seem to want to be helping?

They would do well to follow the KISS principle. "Keep it simple, stupid".

 

[Squidgyness]

My kids are still in high school. I have to travel spring break, xmas, easter or summer because I just cant take them out of school (my own personal preference, others may feel differently)

I am already screwed with airline prices. Canadian March break is ridiculous. But I have to pay it, or not go. What do I do? As soon as I figure we are headed to florida, I watch all airline flights out of buffalo like a hawk. The trend in the last few years has been cheapest prices on the first day they are released, and they grow expodentialy over time.

I think that it will be the same type of deal with disney, if you are locked into a certain time frame, you will have to pay the dollars, or not go. This will be a fine line Disney will have to draw out. Perhaps, because they want people to prepurchase, it will be cheapest the further out. (that means they get the data even earlier then 60 days.....)

How would this work with AP's by the way? Would they just keep AP's higher than the highest possible ticket?

How would the water park options work? Would they change the pricing in hotter months because they know people want them more?

@mom2rtk, Making it complicated might not just affect the customer, it could result in Disney making a mistake in FP allocation. Allocate too many or too few and on the day it could get nasty.

 

[Rileygirl]

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[Rileygirl]

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[mom2rtk]

Maybe we are getting way to technical, and we should be looking at how disney will keep it simple for the average visitor.

I dont know how they would price the ap either, or any of the other type of ticket media.

Its too much info. Argghhhh....

An AP would probably be the simplest part of all of this. They will price it where they think they can get away with it. I can't imagine it being anything but the flat rate arrangement they offer now.

 

[Planogirl]

I was just thinking that Disney may have already accepted that a certain number of people will want to see Harry Potter regardless of WDW incentives. They might be able to accept that one day away.

However, it almost looks like the non-Disney parks could band together in some way and try to lure visitors to spend their whole vacation with them. That is bound to really worry Disney and they would definitely want to keep that from happening.

 

[jade1]

Somewhere in this thread, I had asked about people scheduling 60 days (or however long) out and then NOT using their time slot for whatever reason (they decided to go to a different park, didn't want to ride then, etc). I know that Disney put CC holds on some ADRs because of no shows. How do you think they could control for FP+ no shows? Wouldn't that kind of defeat the purpose if people scheduled but then didn't show up? With the current system, I'm sure there's a certain percentage that don't use their FPs for whatever reason. Many times we just hand them to other families on our way out. That won't be possible with FP+. So would those slots just go unused??

Exact same as now. Standby will be that much faster.

Have you ever been in SB and simply hoped nobody with a FP comes into line-same thing.

All this system is really doing is putting the FP machine at your finger tips. It always seemed stupid to have to go into the park (and the whole family) and to the ride itself, just to maybe get a ride return time, not knowing when or if even available.

If I were a rope dropper-I would pray there are no penalties for not showing up, and that indeed many do not show so I can burn through as many SB lines as possible. And actually-there is a good chance IMO that rope drop will be even better, as many folks will over sleep the early FP+, and many are no longer in a rush to begin with-as they hold 3 for the afternoon or evening.

 

[Squidgyness]

I was just thinking that Disney may have already accepted that a certain number of people will want to see Harry Potter regardless of WDW incentives. They might be able to accept that one day away.

However, it almost looks like the non-Disney parks could band together in some way and try to lure visitors to spend their whole vacation with them. That is bound to really worry Disney and they would definitely want to keep that from happening.

They could. Especially if they marketed the Flexiticket better, although I think Universal would rather their guests spend 150 on a short stay purely at their parks than share 250 with other parks for a longer stay.

After all, people going to Universal paying say 150 for a couple days is better than people going to disney and paying 300 for over a week. (Though they give 14 days for £109 to people from the UK. Suggests the flexi ticket is very popular here and people didn't want to pay that first price. But I digress.)

Shorter visits = more unique visitors able to come into the parks in a week = more ticket purchases = more money.

Disney is really 95% about 4 day long visits +, so they rely on getting people to stay onsite and then spend reliably in park. Universal can be used as part of a longer stay, but it is also about 2 day long visits from anyone they can get, in which they can get people to buy tickets, impulse buy some merch and food, and then get the next load of guests through the door.

If a person spends most of their money in a couple of their days at Disney (say days at a character meal or upscale dining establishment, and buying most of their souvenirs), then the rest of the time they aren't really contributing that much to park spending. Universal enjoys a shorter time for average guests I believe, so they aren't bothered if after two days you've bought everything, thats all you were there for anyway.

I think Universal has an easier job marketing things to their guests. Disney is a bigger, longer experience, perhaps. But that means harder to please guests and a bigger outlay to keep them entertained, imo. I don't think they've hit the target with Fastpass+.

OT: Are there any surveys showing the ratio of people who would book rides in advance to people who wouldn't? Because I still don't think a majority would book rides in advance, much less than 80%.

 

[maiapapaya]

...

However, if Disney in fact has a comprehensive computer control base in place, that they are confident in, and if they can get 80% of both onsite and offsite to play their game, well then

While reading through the new posts, this particular line made me laugh Sorry Rileygirl, not actually laughing at your post, but the idea that Disney IT can actually handle all of the potential technical aspects and issues of this proposed new system (we all know how well they've done over the years with the website ...)

 

[Rileygirl]

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[maiapapaya]

Thats why I always put a disclaimer in

Its a big freakin 'IF"

Course, the price of 1 billion dollars does suggest at least THEY think they can do it.......

Yes, a big freakin' 'IF' indeed! If the speculation is true that TPB look at FP+ as a means to control the masses, who goes where when (which means lots of data manipulation), along with the RDIF, the use of multiple platforms (phone aps, website, in-park equipment ...) the potential for technical issues seems massive! I'm sure Disney always thinks they are capable. But as an example, from what I've heard - don't know from personal experience because non-US guests can't even access the new website yet - it's been glitchy as heck, some recent FP testing made the SB lines a nightmare, the RDIF tests in the shops weren't problem-free etc. My confidence isn't high for FP+. Sometimes high tech seems so cool and cutting edge. Clearly the temptation was too great for TPTB. But I wonder if they are just trying to make it too complex.

I just think there could have been much better ways to compete with the other Orlando attractions.

 

[joshsmom]

Yes, a big freakin' 'IF' indeed! If the speculation is true that TPB look at FP+ as a means to control the masses, who goes where when (which means lots of data manipulation), along with the RDIF, the use of multiple platforms (phone aps, website, in-park equipment ...) the potential for technical issues seems massive! I'm sure Disney always thinks they are capable. But as an example, from what I've heard - don't know from personal experience because non-US guests can't even access the new website yet - it's been glitchy as heck, some recent FP testing made the SB lines a nightmare, the RDIF tests in the shops weren't problem-free etc. My confidence isn't high for FP+. Sometimes high tech seems so cool and cutting edge. Clearly the temptation was too great for TPTB. But I wonder if they are just trying to make it too complex.

I just think there could have been much better ways to compete with the other Orlando attractions.

This was my point. If they can't even get their WEBSITE to work correctly and consistently, HOW IN THE WORLD are they going to manage something as HUGE as FP+???? If you don't even have the basics down, you can't jump to the big stuff. For an example, the Disneyworld site is down AGAIN TODAY!!! Couldn't make an ADR if I WANTED to do so!!! That's JUST NOT GONNA WORK for all this new stuff they want to do. Work out the bugs in the stuff you've GOT first. THEN think about expanding!!! Its very simple.

 

[Squidgyness]

This was my point. If they can't even get their WEBSITE to work correctly and consistently, HOW IN THE WORLD are they going to manage something as HUGE as FP+???? If you don't even have the basics down, you can't jump to the big stuff. For an example, the Disneyworld site is down AGAIN TODAY!!! Couldn't make an ADR if I WANTED to do so!!! That's JUST NOT GONNA WORK for all this new stuff they want to do. Work out the bugs in the stuff you've GOT first. THEN think about expanding!!! Its very simple.

They would probably start small, get that right, move on... etc etc. If it were me, I would...

1) First, convert park entry to rfid. Make sure there are no bugs in the system.
2) Work on the RFID payments with RFID tickets and bands. Ensure Magic Band has no issues with room entry.
3) Ensure Wifi is as good as reasonably possible.
4) Work on the app for a while and make sure it has no bugs and works on all platforms. Ensure both the app and the servers running it can handle a huge amount of traffic and still function well.
5) Install Kiosks. Make sure there are enough. Make sure they are simple to use, easy to fix and have spares ready just in case. Use a small test group to see how long people take to navigate them and see how many people need.
6) Launch a virtual test first of new distributions of FP+ with larger and larger test groups. What are the results of this virtual test, can the parks handle a sudden surge in numbers, can fastpass allocation be changed in an adequate amount of time?
7) Launch a small but significant actual test with a limited number of people but full access to all aspects of the system. This brings all of these systems together. Observe the results. If things go wrong, scale back introduction of the full system till these have been worked out.
8) Then use a larger test, say all Deluxe guests. Again, observe results, can the system handle the pressure?
9) Have all onsite guests using it for a few weeks. If that works, expand to offsite guests.
10) Finally, remove current paper FP machines.

Seems sensible to me, I would hope Disney are doing something like this, possibly even more carefully.

I know some of those steps are part of their plan already, but it's the timescale that we don't know. How long will they allocate to each step? How many steps have they done? We are already on the 5th month of the year and they haven't even gotten round to anything more than a small scale limited test, without access to much of the system.

If they are trying to fix issues, they must be some big issues...

 

[mom2rtk]

They would probably start small, get that right, move on... etc etc. If it were me, I would...

1) First, convert park entry to rfid. Make sure there are no bugs in the system.
2) Work on the RFID payments with RFID tickets and bands. Ensure Magic Band has no issues with room entry.
3) Ensure Wifi is as good as reasonably possible.
4) Work on the app for a while and make sure it has no bugs and works on all platforms. Ensure both the app and the servers running it can handle a huge amount of traffic and still function well.
5) Install Kiosks. Make sure there are enough. Make sure they are simple to use, easy to fix and have spares ready just in case. Use a small test group to see how long people take to navigate them and see how many people need.
6) Launch a virtual test first of new distributions of FP+ with larger and larger test groups. What are the results of this virtual test, can the parks handle a sudden surge in numbers, can fastpass allocation be changed in an adequate amount of time?
7) Launch a small but significant actual test with a limited number of people but full access to all aspects of the system. This brings all of these systems together. Observe the results. If things go wrong, scale back introduction of the full system till these have been worked out.
8) Then use a larger test, say all Deluxe guests. Again, observe results, can the system handle the pressure?
9) Have all onsite guests using it for a few weeks. If that works, expand to offsite guests.
10) Finally, remove current paper FP machines.

Seems sensible to me, I would hope Disney are doing something like this, possibly even more carefully.

I know some of those steps are part of their plan already, but it's the timescale that we don't know. How long will they allocate to each step? How many steps have they done? We are already on the 5th month of the year and they haven't even gotten round to anything more than a small scale limited test, without access to much of the system.

If they are trying to fix issues, they must be some big issues...

That makes WAY too much sense.

I have it pictured in my mind that someone says "I want this completely rolled out by Christmas" and people start going into overdrive, skipping steps to make the new, less than realistic deadline.

I'd like to hope that a big successful company like Disney would resist such reactionary tactics, but then I see how things have gone with the new website rollout and wonder......

I used to work for one of the major health insurance companies. One would like to think there was a rational process where the underwriters would evaluate claims, runout, overhead, etc and calculate next year's rates. But often in high profile cases, we would go to underwriting and say "this is the rate I really need to make this sell". Then underwriting would work backwards to get there. I could totally see a company working from a declaration of what they want from a marketing perspective and backwards to get there.

 

[maiapapaya]

That makes WAY too much sense.

I have it pictured in my mind that someone says "I want this completely rolled out by Christmas" and people start going into overdrive, skipping steps to make the new, less than realistic deadline.

I'd like to hope that a big successful company like Disney would resist such reactionary tactics, but then I see how things have gone with the new website rollout and wonder......

Well since they can't even seem to get the website working properly how can they expect to get all the rest of it up & running smoothly in a reasonable amount of time?! I agree that they could hit a point when they just push to get it rolled out and the guests will have to deal with the mess, kind of how new computer programs get rolled out before the developers properly trouble shoot everything (letting the consumer do the beta-testing)

 

[Squidgyness]

That makes WAY too much sense.

I have it pictured in my mind that someone says "I want this completely rolled out by Christmas" and people start going into overdrive, skipping steps to make the new, less than realistic deadline.

I'd like to hope that a big successful company like Disney would resist such reactionary tactics, but then I see how things have gone with the new website rollout and wonder......

Yes, companies don't always make the wisest decisions in reaction.

Another recent example of this: Take Microsoft. I know most on here don't know the workings of video game consoles, but I'll be brief.

Sony effectively got their rival product into the public eye first, though they didn't give too much away.

In an attempt to react, Microsoft made some poor decisions in retrospect.

Perhaps the key change: They chose to charge people extra to play second hand games on their system.

A compromise, they would get money from that second sale, people would still be able to buy second hand games.

Microsoft execs I imagine sat back and smiled contentedly. Surely this would please everyone, people would get over the extra charge. Well, it all went pear shaped fast. People started saying what if I borrow a game from a friend, I don't like the extra charge, Sony don't do this, and so on... Massive backlash.

Just one example from recent times of a huge company reacting to a competitor and completely misjudging the market. And it involves technology too.. one of the most volatile areas of industry, and the hardest to make plans for the future in.

Disney are taking a massive, and in my opinion dangerous, risk with this. I calculate the chances of it paying off without a hitch are minimal. The most i'm daring to hope for is it not affecting too many people if something doesn't go as it should.