FP availability as crowd level predictor

[Matt961]

Does FP availability at less than 30 days out show any type of predictor towards crowd levels? The reason I ask is I’m making some time changes at HS for first week of Feb and all Tier 1 rides(except SDD) are available all throughout the day. Or does that just go to show that everyone uses their tier 1 on SDD and hope to get others later?

 

[AngiTN]

Does FP availability at less than 30 days out show any type of predictor towards crowd levels? The reason I ask is I’m making some time changes at HS for first week of Feb and all Tier 1 rides(except SDD) are available all throughout the day. Or does that just go to show that everyone uses their tier 1 on SDD and hope to get others later?

That

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

That

Agreed. SDD is not a good ride to look at.
You have to look at something very popular but not gone at 60 days popular. And you need something to compare it to. Last year I had 3 MK days and looked at the times that PPF and Townhall Mickey (he was meeting with Minnie for a limited time last year so it was a more difficult than usual FP to get). Based on the times that those FPs were available it looked like Sun was going to be the least busy of the days followed by Tues followed by Sat as the busiest. That's pretty much how it went. So yes, I think it can tell you something, but I'm not sure that it's very useful. I assume they alter the number of FPs available in the busier versus less busy times because they know if they're planning to run at capacity or know they plan not to. And the number of park hours will affect it also. So I don't think you can really compare much beyond a given week.

Some people suggest using the Disney 1 day ticket price calendar as a way to gauge crowds which is probably better.

 

[CastAStone]

FP availability is an OK predictor of crowds. Disney doesn't release the same number of FPs each day and on rides with multiple identical ride systems (TOT, AS2, TSM, ST at DHS), they sometimes secretly close one system for a day or two for an express refurbishment, which makes the FPs go much faster than usual.

But those all make it seem like it will be more crowded than it really is. I think if there's a zillion FPs available 30 days out, you can assume crowds will be, at worst, moderate (by Disney World standards).

I will say this, if you click on "morning" and see TSM availability during every 30 minute period before noon, it's trending towards being dead.

 

[CastAStone]

Some people suggest using the Disney 1 day ticket price calendar as a way to gauge crowds which is probably better.

For crowds across all of WDW, its OK; remember Disney sets those prices often more than a year in advance, so they don't even have last year's results for the same day yet when they set them.

For crowds at a specific park though, I think it's a poor indicator. Different parks get different crowd levels on different days of the week (e.g. during non-party season, Magic Kingdom is always the most crowded park on Mondays but is usually not on Tuesdays).

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

For crowds at a specific park though, I think it's a poor indicator.

True. But you aren’t going to be able to get that from looking at FP Availability either. It might be tempting to say that since EE and BTMR are probably similar in popularity and both rollercoasters that if EE has fewer early times available after 30 days that AK will be less busy but there are so many variables in how Disney might allocate FPs that it may not really tell you anything (will they only run one side of BTMR all morning, what are the inherent capacity differences, etc).

 

[RememberWhoYouAre]

Having slinky dog FP gone at 30 days out is normal. I'm a passholder who can book FPs at 30 days out and slinky dog, flight of passage and 7 dwarfs are virtually never available for me at 30 days out regardless of when we go.

 

[Remy is Up]

Having slinky dog FP gone at 30 days out is normal. I'm a passholder who can book FPs at 30 days out and slinky dog, flight of passage and 7 dwarfs are virtually never available for me at 30 days out regardless of when we go.

Just pull them day of on refresh and drop schedule. Being a passholder, especially if you are local and can just go on a whim, pulling same day is pretty easy.
And I dont think crowd calendars, FP availability, should have any effect on how people plan a vacay. Yes, work around parties, emh, after hours, etc, but dont worry about crowd levels. Disney is ALWAYS busy these days due to festivals, runs, events, etc. Plan assuming crowd levels will always be busy and you can be more realistic with your plans. Then if it isnt as busy, you have a lot of flexibility.

 

[mickey765]

Only if there is usually fastpass availability or early fastpass availability for that ride on that date.