salmoneous
<img src="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis-sponsor/image
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2005
- Messages
- 6,468
This is just one person's random thoughts. And while my thoughts are different from some of those posted by others, please don't take this as an argument - just a difference of opinion.
The general consensus is that recent changes are a big deal. Furthermore, there's an option that the changes will help solve the problem of popular weeks being hard to reserve. I disagree.
Taking a total WAG, I suspect that less that 0.1% of members used more than one transfer last year. And less than 0.1% of reservations were by people Disney will judge to be exhibiting a pattern of renting for profit. The vast majority of reservations and members will be unaffected.
Furthermore, I don't think the rental market is driving the difficulties of getting some reservations. I think the reservation "problem" is simply the marketplace growing to understand that some reservations are more desirable than others.
There are two pieces to the desirability problem. First, the points/night rates are out of wack. To have a smooth system, you want each reservation to be equally desirable. More popular times should be priced higher than less desirable times. But we know demand hasn't been equalized. Early December, F&W etc. are clearly more desirable reservations that other times, for instance. Now, I don't know if it's worthwhile to try and adjust things to get rid of the excess demand. But if Disney doesn't adjust, you are going to have excess demand which leads to shortages. However, I believe this to be only a small piece of the problem.
The real problem is unequal demand between resorts. Now, I don't want to get into any arguments about whose resort is better than whose. Each of the resorts has their fans. But in total, the marketplace is clearly drawing distinctions between the resorts.
Whether we like it or not, whether it is fair or not, the market is setting the price of an BCV "point" to be at least 20% more than a OKW "point". As long as that price differential holds up, and certainly if it gets any worse, the whole DVC resort-sharing system is going to break down.
99% of the difference between a BCV point and an OKW point is the 11 month window. At this point, why would anybody buy BCV points if they aren't planning on using that window? And existing BCV owners who don't use the window have got to be temped to sell their points - either buying cheaper points or points at a resort where they will use the window. The temptation will only get stronger as the differential grows.
Eventually, you're going to end up with most BCV points being used fro BCV rentals during the 11-month window. There just won't be reservations left for non-BCV owners. You could see similar breakdowns with other resorts. Is that where we are headed?
The general consensus is that recent changes are a big deal. Furthermore, there's an option that the changes will help solve the problem of popular weeks being hard to reserve. I disagree.
Taking a total WAG, I suspect that less that 0.1% of members used more than one transfer last year. And less than 0.1% of reservations were by people Disney will judge to be exhibiting a pattern of renting for profit. The vast majority of reservations and members will be unaffected.
Furthermore, I don't think the rental market is driving the difficulties of getting some reservations. I think the reservation "problem" is simply the marketplace growing to understand that some reservations are more desirable than others.
There are two pieces to the desirability problem. First, the points/night rates are out of wack. To have a smooth system, you want each reservation to be equally desirable. More popular times should be priced higher than less desirable times. But we know demand hasn't been equalized. Early December, F&W etc. are clearly more desirable reservations that other times, for instance. Now, I don't know if it's worthwhile to try and adjust things to get rid of the excess demand. But if Disney doesn't adjust, you are going to have excess demand which leads to shortages. However, I believe this to be only a small piece of the problem.
The real problem is unequal demand between resorts. Now, I don't want to get into any arguments about whose resort is better than whose. Each of the resorts has their fans. But in total, the marketplace is clearly drawing distinctions between the resorts.
Whether we like it or not, whether it is fair or not, the market is setting the price of an BCV "point" to be at least 20% more than a OKW "point". As long as that price differential holds up, and certainly if it gets any worse, the whole DVC resort-sharing system is going to break down.
99% of the difference between a BCV point and an OKW point is the 11 month window. At this point, why would anybody buy BCV points if they aren't planning on using that window? And existing BCV owners who don't use the window have got to be temped to sell their points - either buying cheaper points or points at a resort where they will use the window. The temptation will only get stronger as the differential grows.
Eventually, you're going to end up with most BCV points being used fro BCV rentals during the 11-month window. There just won't be reservations left for non-BCV owners. You could see similar breakdowns with other resorts. Is that where we are headed?
