In years past I've been able to book the best rate for airlines at around the 9-10 month out point (September/October for a June trip). I noticed a change this year when we decided on an unexpected trip during June. I found the best rates during January/February for that trip. The prices increased along about March and I'm not sure they ever dropped. This year the current prices (for June 2003) are running about $10-$20 higher per ticket over January's rates.
This year I began looking as soon as I was able for June '03 and the flight prices from Toledo, Dayton (I'm from that area originally AND we're taking our nephew so we could fly from there this time around), and/or Detroit. The prices have remained fairly constant from $201.50 (Dayton), $211.50 (Toledo), and a ridiculously overpriced $265 (Detroit--gotta' pay for that new terminal somehow I guess).
The industry (like the economy) is in a state of flux at this point and it seems the promotions are running very similarly to Disney's--just a few months in advance at a time. Since the fall season began, the best pricing for fares only extends to March 8, 2003. Ditto the best pricing for the fall rates seemed to hit during mid-summer. If the pattern holds true, I would expect along about late December, early January--the promotional fares will be released PROVIDED the economy/travel doesn't pick-up drastically.
I think consumers are getting smarter and waiting longer to book those vacations in hopes of getting better deals. Alternatively, maybe folks are just reticent to book until they can assess their personal situations nearer in time to their planned vacations.
All of that said--I am NOT AN EXPERT in this industry and these are just observations I've made from my own vacation planning. It still makes me a bit anxious to wait until January--you never know, the price could go up considerably. I guess there's always the driving option!
OOPS--forgot to say we've checked the various dates Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday for departure AND Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday, & Sunday for returns--didn't affect the prices much--at most $1-12 per ticket--I always thought it was cheaper to fly Wed/Thurs--guess it isn't so in these markets anyway.