First (small) ship in the Caribbean - already 1 pax COVID pos

[spiders]

2021 is looking more and more bleak

The first half of 2021 has looked bleak for a while. The second half looks better than it did just a few weeks ago. If the widespread availability of a vaccine holds true at by Q3 then Q3 begins in July.

 

[hrhdhd]

I thought that was crazy from the beginning, especially with the fact that Covid rates are going up, not down. I hope that their choice does not damage the industry being able to move forward.

"Cases" are going up, but the number of cases is 1) questionable and 2) not a particularly useful number. Elon Musk just took four tests, two positive and two negative. Guess what: they record that as two positive "cases," even though he's one person and may or may not actually be positive.

 

[MomOTwins]

"Cases" are going up, but the number of cases is 1) questionable and 2) not a particularly useful number. Elon Musk just took four tests, two positive and two negative. Guess what: they record that as two positive "cases," even though he's one person and may or may not actually be positive.

Elon Musk and celebrities skirt the rules. For a regular person, if you have a positive test CDC guidelines mean you won’t be eligible to be retested for 90 days.

The numbers also undercount. My father-in-law got covid two weeks ago. A few days later my MIL got sick too but her doctor said don’t come in; no need to test (and better not to to help ensure faster test processing for others) because it is obvious she had it. My doctor said the same thing for my husband and three kids when I tested positive months ago and they got mild symptoms. So that was seven people sick; two cases recorded toward the official count.

 

[Starwind]

"Cases" are going up, but the number of cases is 1) questionable and 2) not a particularly useful number. Elon Musk just took four tests, two positive and two negative. Guess what: they record that as two positive "cases," even though he's one person and may or may not actually be positive.

Are you sure it double-counts ?

Where I live, it would not. A person could test positive five days in a row and it would only "count" the first time, because the counting is tied to the specific person as well. They also have a defined minimum interval before a repeat positive in the same person is allowed to count as a "new" positive test [since people can get infected again], but I believe it is in the order of months.

The lack of double-counting also appears to be the case for CDC # and in at least some states. See https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/...-once/65-b9d45011-aed7-4e85-8b29-9a0417650cec

 

[bcwife76]

Elon Musk and celebrities skirt the rules. For a regular person, if you have a positive test CDC guidelines mean you won’t be eligible to be retested for 90 days.

The numbers also undercount. My father-in-law got covid two weeks ago. A few days later my MIL got sick too but her doctor said don’t come in; no need to test (and better not to to help ensure faster test processing for others) because it is obvious she had it. My doctor said the same thing for my husband and three kids when I tested positive months ago and they got mild symptoms. So that was seven people sick; two cases recorded toward the official count.

Here in BC if someone tests positive (say, the husband) and then a few days later the wife gets sick they will say the same thing, isolate, don't bother taking a test as you 'obviously' have it and both of them would count towards it, though in the case of the wife her 'case' would be marked as 'epi linked.' So in using the example you have put forth (7 sick, 2 cases actually recorded towards official count) ours would be 7 recorded towards official count, 5 of which would come up as 'epi linked.'

 

[AquaDame]

"Cases" are going up, but the number of cases is 1) questionable and 2) not a particularly useful number. Elon Musk just took four tests, two positive and two negative. Guess what: they record that as two positive "cases," even though he's one person and may or may not actually be positive.

Elon went in with an agenda, and the four tests he took (why did he get four?) were rapid tests. He also took a fifth "gold standard" one, the results of which haven't been released yet. All this shows is that, as experts have been saying for a long time, the rapid test is unreliable. Dare I say, perhaps insufficient to get cruises sailing again..? It'd be nice if they were much more accurate.

I'm not sure where you're seeing that "they" counted his two unreliable rapid positive tests as two cases... seems sus... but hey, we're not on the cruising forum to argue about that kind of thing anyway.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...egative-for-coronavirus-awaiting-confirmation

 

[Starwind]

All this shows is that, as experts have been saying for a long time, the rapid test is unreliable. Dare I say, perhaps insufficient to get cruises sailing again..? It'd be nice if they were much more accurate.

The rapid tests on their own certainly won't be sufficient. They can't be, even if they were 100% reliable, since they only reflect that snapshot moment in time.

However, I think they will be an important tool among many other items, part of a multi-layered approach.

I do wonder if CDC may specify certain brand(s) of rapid tests vs others as some are more reliable than others. And hopefully the technology will get better.

I also wonder if they may require a combination of testing types, eg PCR before, rapid at the port or something similar. Though how the logistics of that would work...

SW

 

[Starwind]

This video is from a vlogging couple that are on board the ship and has some details that are not being reported in the media.

Among them... when they hit 5 positives, it was 5 out of a traveling group of 6 people who had not been on the previous Transatlantic sailing.

Since they are now up to 7 positives it has managed to spread beyond that original group by either 1 or 2.

The video also shows and talks about the processes that kicked in once the first positive was detected as well as some of the processes that were in place beforehand.

They also have 2 previous vlogs about the Transatlantic sailing of the ship as well as this sailing before the positive case, which they were also on, which gives more info about what the process was like for it and what it was like on board.

 

[Kiley]

My husband started reading all The precautions they were taking with tests 3 days prior and then another rapid test before boarding. I stopped him and asked, “how many cases?” (There are now 7)
I‘ve said this so many times : rapid tests are horribly insensitive (they give many false negatives). 65% sensitivity in people with no symptoms. You can miss picking up a case 35% of the time!
Rapid tests give false sense of security, as has been seen on this ship. The only way to create the “bubble” they described is to have literally everyone going onboard - staff included - isolate for 2 weeks prior. That is the only way.

 

[Starwind]

And update from vloggers who were on the ship.

Barbados has required the passengers that tested negative to fly home.

The last person on the ship to test positive was a crew member - a server.

The original family of five that tested positive was a family from California.

The vloggers did a live vlog today including Q&A from the UK: