First RIV resale contract sold for?

[Bearval]

I am pretty shocked it is only reselling for $100 per point. That’s very low.

If a recession hits anytime soon $100.00 a point resale for RIV will look too high.

 

[Bearval]

seems to me that a lot of the "I won't buy at any price" crowd are emotionally responding to the resale restrictions. IMHO, it seems like a lot of "cut of your nose to spite your face."

Take the emotion out of it and look at the current facts.

The doomsday prices of $70 aren't happening.

The floor for DRR resale is $100. That has already been shown. It WILL go up from there.

What I really don't get is people freaking out over this and acting like buying direct DRR is the riskiest thing possible. The spread right now is about $80 a point between direct and resale. Well -- if you buy Aulani right now -- you're making arguably a dumber decision. The market is well established on that pricing and you're going to lose $80+ on that contract as well -- not to mention you don't even have WDW home resort priority.

And buying BCV direct? $225 a point with resale at $150 -- that's a $75 swing.
VGF? $80 swing.

Face the facts people -- if you're looking to buy direct -- for the vase majority of DVC properties -- you WILL BE PAYING ABOUT AN $80 difference.

We have been in a very long market expansion and are over due for a drop. If and when a recession hits like 2007/2008 $100.00 per resale point for RIV will look high.

 

[kboo]

Resale prices will probably rise despite the restrictions because nobody will have our old reference point in mind, i.e. how we used to sleep around with a second-hand contract. People will give no second thought to not being able to stay at another resort (i.e. "oh of course we can't use it for that"), and the transition toward a normal/typical timeshare will be complete.

I agree with you. To some extent, the mantra of "buy where you want to stay" and "I wouldn't mind getting "stuck" there" are getting us primed for that anyway. I am, for the first time, thinking about finally using my points to sleep around somewhere (trying to get a night a VGC with BLT points doesn't count), and it is kind of painful (because we are probably going to use VGF points to sleep around)

 

[stewart715]

We have been in a very long market expansion and are over due for a drop. If and when a recession hits like 2007/2008 $100.00 per resale point for RIV will look high.

I don't know if we will ever see a recession that bad in our lifetimes but recessions of some sort of recession in general are inevitable and occur every 10-15 years at best.

It's even possible $100 is still too high in the current market. We don't know what the floor is because we don't know how desirable the resort is. If it's a resort to stay and not trade, then resale values will be fine. But if people find themselves feeling isolated at this resort as they do at SSR/OKW, there may be a bit of a problem.

To claim the floor is $XYZ on the basis of a few panic sales is absurd. We don't know what it is and we won't for another 2 years from now.

 

[stewart715]

seems to me that a lot of the "I won't buy at any price" crowd are emotionally responding to the resale restrictions. IMHO, it seems like a lot of "cut of your nose to spite your face."

Agreed. The "I won't buy at any price" doesn't make much sense regarding resale contracts because you are purchasing the contract with restrictions. Meaning, it's already built into the market price. You're not losing money because of restrictions. Saying you won't purchase direct because of the restrictions is a very different thing.

 

[Smoknchip]

We have been in a very long market expansion and are over due for a drop. If and when a recession hits like 2007/2008 $100.00 per resale point for RIV will look high.

If a recession hits all property resale values will take a hit, not just RIV.

I would actually predict you will see a larger percentage drop in resale values in the resorts expiring in 2042 as opposed to the newer properties.

If RIV resale values settle at 100 dollars per point in the next 2 years there will be a period of 15-17 years where resale point value could appreciate - like in the past - this will not be the case for the properties with earlier expiration dates.

Overall, the resort has 2 things going for it that the lower cost per point resorts on resale currently don’t .... a direct mass transportation option to two parks and proposed amenities that each can’t even come close to. These options will make many resale buyers look past the trade restrictions in the future for it to hold a per-point value greater than $100.

 

[stewart715]

If RIV resale values settle at 100 dollars per point in the next 2 years there will be a period of 15-17 years where resale point value could appreciate - like in the past - this will not be the case for the properties with earlier expiration dates.

2042 resorts are still appreciating on the resale market. Less than 1 year ago, BWV direct was $171 per point. We are now (after the recent direct price hikes) seeing some 50-75 point BWV contracts going for $155-160. Astonishing.

 

[Smoknchip]

2042 resorts are still appreciating on the resale market. Less than 1 year ago, BWV direct was $171 per point. We are now (after the recent direct price hikes) seeing some 50-75 point BWV contracts going for $155-160. Astonishing.

I predict this ‘appreciation’ will end sooner than later - that’s all - if there is a recession.

Regardless, when there are less than 17 years left on those contracts (5 years from now) I would suspect there will be a good chance there will be depreciation on those contracts no matter the economic climate.

 

[Frederic Civish]

I think what's going to happen, and what DVC execs are counting on, is that the ability to use a resale contract at many different resorts will become a distant memory as old resorts approach expiration, additional new resorts open, and so on. Resale prices will probably rise despite the restrictions because nobody will have our old reference point in mind, i.e. how we used to sleep around with a second-hand contract. People will give no second thought to not being able to stay at another resort (i.e. "oh of course we can't use it for that"), and the transition toward a normal/typical timeshare will be complete.

In that light it might be a nice deal (relatively speaking, imagining that you're looking back 15 years from now) to pick up a resale Riviera or Reflections contract on the cheap. "Nice deal" being relative to future climate, of course, not relative to the good old DVC days.

If that is what Disney expects, then they are going to be sorely disappointed.

SSR runs for about 34 more years. AKL and OKW run for about 38 more years. THIS IS ALMOST TWO GENERATIONS, so you would most likely be talking at least about yur Grand Children being adults and owning it and running it, before the end. And other resorts last even longer.

For at least the next 38 years, ALL of the following resorts will be able to share exchanges at the 7 month window: OKW, AKL, COPPER CREEK, BLT, POLY, Grand Floridian, Grand Californian, Aulani. Am I missing any? So, for at least the next 38 years, ALL of those resorts are going to have a significant advantage in the resale market, over Riviera, Reflections and whatever.

I wonder who decided to come up with this policy of kicking owners in the teeth and trying to 'freeze them out.' AND, I have to wonder if some future executive who is running things differently, down the road, is going to look back and decide they made a mistake, and try to modify things to mitigate the problems a bit.

And this doesn't even take into account the horrendous problems with scheduling that Riviera is going to have.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Riviera is going to have horrendous problems with scheduling. Once even 10% of Riviera owners are resale owners, they are going to pounce on the best reservations like flies, BECAUSE THEY WILL KNOW THAT IF THEY DON'T HAVE SOMETHING BY THE 7 MONTH WINDOW, THEN THEY GET NOTHING AT ALL. So, even when they can't travel, they are going to book everything in sight, starting with all the most desirable choices, so they can rent them out. This is going to cause a 'booking arms race' between all the owners of Riviera, and it will get very unpleasant, and inconvenient. Because the owners who purchased Direct will also realize that the pickings will be slim when they want to exchange out to another resort at 7 months, since Disney is making that harder and harder to do, so they too will need to jump into the Riviera Reservations pool, whether they want to or not, during the 7 to 11 month window, and since it will often be inconvenient to them, they too will be renting out a lot of those reservations.

I will predict right now that Riviera will be THE DVC RESORT that has the most points rented out, at all times, of any DVC Resorts, and this will contribute even more to the Booking Arms Race.

Owning at Riviera, whether by Direct Purchase or Resale is going to get inconvenient and ugly.

 

[suemom2kay]

I think what's going to happen, and what DVC execs are counting on, is that the ability to use a resale contract at many different resorts will become a distant memory as old resorts approach expiration, additional new resorts open, and so on. Resale prices will probably rise despite the restrictions because nobody will have our old reference point in mind, i.e. how we used to sleep around with a second-hand contract. People will give no second thought to not being able to stay at another resort (i.e. "oh of course we can't use it for that"), and the transition toward a normal/typical timeshare will be complete.

In that light it might be a nice deal (relatively speaking, imagining that you're looking back 15 years from now) to pick up a resale Riviera or Reflections contract on the cheap. "Nice deal" being relative to future climate, of course, not relative to the good old DVC days.

I don’t know about that because at most other timeshares it’s no problem to go to other resorts in your resort family.

 

[Bing Showei]

Wow! I guess we have a better idea of the start of the resale market for the resort...thanks for confirming!

I’m not sure how much this particular contract really tells us. The details of the purchase are super sketchy; the owner of the company, who is known to buy and flip contracts, purchased it directly and sold a lot of volume through the former agency that the agent, who blasted the sale on social, used to work for... this transaction smells all kinds of wrong, so much so that I would NEVER use them as a seller.

Passing ROFR on an actively sold resort is a given. If there were a $20/point AUL or Riviera, it would still pass. Disney would rather have someone else paying the bills.

The two contracts on Fidelity asking $170 will be more telling. One is “sale pending” while the other is still available.

 

[stewart715]

I’m not sure how much this particular contract really tells us.

Almost nothing. It's interesting but that's about it.

 

[Bearval]

If a recession hits all property resale values will take a hit, not just RIV.

I would actually predict you will see a larger percentage drop in resale values in the resorts expiring in 2042 as opposed to the newer properties.

If RIV resale values settle at 100 dollars per point in the next 2 years there will be a period of 15-17 years where resale point value could appreciate - like in the past - this will not be the case for the properties with earlier expiration dates.

Overall, the resort has 2 things going for it that the lower cost per point resorts on resale currently don’t .... a direct mass transportation option to two parks and proposed amenities that each can’t even come close to. These options will make many resale buyers look past the trade restrictions in the future for it to hold a per-point value greater than $100.

Yes all resorts will take a hit in a recession but the ones with larger maintenance fees will be impacted more in my opinion. RIV will have larger fees due to a greater costs for transportation (buses and gondolas). I will consider buyin RIV if a recession hits and the bottom settles lower.

 

[mustinjourney]

We have been in a very long market expansion and are over due for a drop. If and when a recession hits like 2007/2008 $100.00 per resale point for RIV will look high.

And $150 for BCV will also look high. A recession won't just affect RIV.

 

[DGHProp]

Riviera is going to have horrendous problems with scheduling. Once even 10% of Riviera owners are resale owners, they are going to pounce on the best reservations like flies, BECAUSE THEY WILL KNOW THAT IF THEY DON'T HAVE SOMETHING BY THE 7 MONTH WINDOW, THEN THEY GET NOTHING AT ALL. So, even when they can't travel, they are going to book everything in sight, starting with all the most desirable choices, so they can rent them out. This is going to cause a 'booking arms race' between all the owners of Riviera, and it will get very unpleasant, and inconvenient. Because the owners who purchased Direct will also realize that the pickings will be slim when they want to exchange out to another resort at 7 months, since Disney is making that harder and harder to do, so they too will need to jump into the Riviera Reservations pool, whether they want to or not, during the 7 to 11 month window, and since it will often be inconvenient to them, they too will be renting out a lot of those reservations.

I will predict right now that Riviera will be THE DVC RESORT that has the most points rented out, at all times, of any DVC Resorts, and this will contribute even more to the Booking Arms Race.

Owning at Riviera, whether by Direct Purchase or Resale is going to get inconvenient and ugly.

I agree with you! The whole point of Disney’s DVC is to sell and maintain a timeshare that isn’t a timeshare. Meaning the reason the DVC direct and resale purchases continue to thrive is Disney props up the “Disney Timeshare” by buying back the low offers and before the Rivera and Reflecton fiasco which impacted the direct-resale purchases everything was going pretty smooth. Disney makes money and more money on sales and cherry picks the resales and sales and sells them again direct what a brilliant idea. The other timeshares that aren’t Disney are the bottom of the barrel Disney sells a product where you can buy a beautiful DVC timeshare, it holds it’s value because of Disney and you can stay in a number of OTHER beautiful Disney owned timeshares until now...my opinion is Disney has taken a well oiled machine and are close to killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

 

[CarolMN]

Those who believe booking is going to turn into a nightmare should purchase a fixed week.

 

[CraigInPA]

Disney makes money and more money on sales and cherry picks the resales and sales and sells them again direct what a brilliant idea. The other timeshares that aren’t Disney are the bottom of the barrel Disney sells a product where you can buy a beautiful DVC timeshare, it holds it’s value because of Disney and you can stay in a number of OTHER beautiful Disney owned timeshares until now.

Until the last recession, this was true. During that recession, DVC did not exercise it's ROFR right to take low priced contracts, likely due to them having excess inventory and too few buyers. As a result, there was some serious devaluation. For people who "had to sell", it was a rough awakening, especially if they were direct purchasers. As the economy rebounded, the prices have similarly recovered.

 

[Frederic Civish]

. . . especially if they were direct purchasers.

Just another, very good reason to buy at Resale. It costs much less, so, even if worse comes to worst, you will lose much less than the Direct Buyers.

 

[ELMC]

2042 resorts are still appreciating on the resale market. Less than 1 year ago, BWV direct was $171 per point. We are now (after the recent direct price hikes) seeing some 50-75 point BWV contracts going for $155-160. Astonishing.

Astonishing is the correct word. The math does not make sense on these contracts, yet people continue to buy. This reminds me a lot of the housing market from 2002-2007. A few years ago I was all over these boards saying the prices for DVC exceeded the value proposition. The prices then continued to rise. It's a little unbelievable, but eventually something is going to change. DVC pricing is, in my opinion, a bubble, and we all know what happens to bubbles. With the housing market it took a recession for the bubble to pop. In this case we have expiration dates. Regardless, we all know what is going to happen, it is only a matter of time.