Feel like crowd calendars let me down a bit

[100acreHiker]

So this was our second trip to WDW (first went in 2012 after Thanksgiving/early December). I spent a ton of time planning the trip, and it was overall good, but I do feel like closely studying both crowd calendars we used (TP and EWDW) didn't pan out for us. 5 of our 6 days we stuck to the most recommended parks, and it turned out every time but once other parks had lower crowds. One of our days (Epcot) was excellent crowd-wise, and we got a lot done, so that was nice. One day at MK was pretty good. The others, not so much.

I will say that I know there's no crystal ball with these things, but I think I put too much faith in historical crowd numbers and recommendations. Also, looking at TP's results the next morning for what they saw, they were either off or their number just felt way wrong. For example, one day, they predicted a level 2 for MK, and it was a 7. That's way off. And it was a zoo. Also, one day they said they saw a 2, and it really, really felt more like a 5. When we went 2 years ago with level 2 crowds, we walked on to most rides, or had very short wait times. I stood in line on what they said was a level 2 day for 25 min for IASW, 15 min for the carousel, 30 min for Under the Sea, 15 min WITH a FP for PP, 25 min for Haunted Mansion, etc. This was a party day with early closing, and the most recommended park according to easy wdw and TP. It just didn't feel like level 2, but maybe I'm wrong. Like I said I only have one other trip to compare it to.

My friend and her family traveled with us and did different parks most days, and she had better luck just randomly choosing her parks without consulting any crowd calendar. Oh well. It was still a good time, of course, just more lines than I thought and definitely compared to late Nov/early Dec. Still magical in its own way. I plan to write a more thorough trip report soon.

 

[Mikie]

I've seen several posts about that recent 2 vs 7 MK day and thst would be a bummer for sure! I also read a lot on DIS about crowds just being different than years past and not finding any truly low times any more. I'm pretty sure Touring Plans re-did their scale some time this summer - I recall reading an article about it on their site, but don't remember the details. maybe the "everything is relative" concept came into play. . . A 2 today is lower than a 5 tomorrow, but a 2 today is NOT the same as a 2 in 2010

Glad your trip was good regardless!

 

[ajwolfe]

We never use the touring calendars to predict our days. We tend to just use our on logic - like maybe no MK on a Saturday and then plan for works best for us and our schedule. Seems like there has been a lot of posts lately indicating those crowd calendars are not as accurate as they used to be and I can see how that would happen.

 

[SoarinSC]

We noticed crowds were noticeably bigger than we've seen them on past trips in October.

 

[IWannaBuildASnowman]

I've been comparing crowd predictions to actual fastpass availability for the week we're there. They aren't correlating. The Monday was supposed to be a great HS day, but I can't get a Toy Story FP. Wednesday is supposed to be worse, but I can get a Toy Story FP anytime I want. So.

Having said that, I think the overall crowd levels across all 4 parks are well predicted by the crowd calendars - it's just a case of where people actually go that day.

 

[BuzzinDownToDisney]

I've kind have come to the conclusion there is no such thing as a 1-4 crowd anymore, except a few rare days in September. Our last week of August trip showed a 4 and MK was most recommended on Easy, and we had to leave by 2pm when I was questioning if they were near closing due to capacity. The economy has rebounded, there's practically nothing to do at DHS, many people don't go to AK at all, so the MK will always be crowded.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

OP, I think part of your issue is that you're comparing 2012 crowds to 2014 crowds. If Disney is to be believed, Florida theme park attendance has increased about 10% since 2012 (if memory serves). Thus, your crowd level 2 of 2014 is not going to have the same number of people of your crowd level 2 in 2012, because overall crowds have increased.

I'm not a TP subscriber, but I am a Josh/easywdw devotee, and he's explained his crowd level (roughly) as follows: it follows a bell curve, based on the last 6 months of attendance and the predicted next 6 months of attendance. He's alluded to an internal Disney resource that helps him build his crowd predictions, so they're based on Disney's own numbers. What crowds were in 2012 were irrelevant to crowd levels today because it falls outside that previous 6 months window. Using a bell curve, there has to be 2s, just like there has to be 8s. A crowd level 5 is average for today's crowds, not for 2012 crowds, which were 10% lower overall.

 

[tinkerpea]

There truly isn't a low crowd time anymore,
I've been going to disney for many years around September early October,and it was great!!
The last time we went was crazy! And for no special reason other then people have learnt about it being a quite time,
And unfortunately touring plans and boards like this haven't helped that situation.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

What days did you go to which parks?

easywdw would have had your Saturday (2 out of 10 on TP apparently) as the least recommended park. Any Party day at MK will be lower crowds than the non-Party days around it. Absolutely guaranteed. Otherwise, FP+ has changed wait times substantially since your last visit. The wait times referenced aren't anything out of the ordinary, even on the least crowded days of the year.

 

[100acreHiker]

We went to MK on two party days, and we did go again on that Saturday for the just the morning, mostly because it was my son's birthday and that's where he wanted to go. So 5/6 of our days were most recommended park days based on easy WDW and 1 was a non-recommended park day, but a predicted 2 (turned out to be 7) based on TP. I figured even if TP was off by a bit, it would be a 4 or so, not a 7.

I think the PP was right also about parks: DHS has a lot less to do, lots of people skip AK, and that leaves Epcot and MK, so they're drawing larger crowds. And I didn't realize that a 3 today was different than a 3 in 2012, when we last went. That trip was just awesome. We waited more than 5-10 minutes only a handful of times. Aside from lines, the parks just felt congested on some of the days. Epcot obviously felt better, since it's so large. World showcase was absolutely pleasant and pretty open--my favorite moments of the trip.

Even with the disappointment of the crowds and lines in MK, DHS, and one of the days in EP, I missed waking up in WDW today!

 

[ebtbmom]

I wonder if people are using crowd calendars more. If a large number of people see a most recommended day and go to that park it could effect the crowd level.

 

[jahber]

It makes sense that the crowd calendars would need to adjust for inflation, so to speak. I never thought of it that way before, but now that crowds are increasing, it's either adjust the scale or add 11, 12, and 13 to the scale. I suppose I just need to adjust my thinking from "1 is not crowded at all" to "1 is the least crowded it will be this year." And likewise, now "10 is so crowded I will want to ram everyone with my stroller and thus will not go to the parks that day."

 

[AngiTN]

It makes sense that the crowd calendars would need to adjust for inflation, so to speak. I never thought of it that way before, but now that crowds are increasing, it's either adjust the scale or add 11, 12, and 13 to the scale. I suppose I just need to adjust my thinking from "1 is not crowded at all" to "1 is the least crowded it will be this year." And likewise, now "10 is so crowded I will want to ram everyone with my stroller and thus will not go to the parks that day."

YES! You can't really take a 1-10 scale and increase the numbers beyond 10. What you have to do is realize that the "definition" used to determine what is a 1 has changed. The baseline is changed and you have to redefine your idea of what a 1 is. 1 is still least crowded, based on crowds spread out over the year. All other days are more crowded, by some degree or another, than a day with a 1 on it.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

 

[Davey Jones II]

I used a crowd calendar to plan our October trip, for the most part. It always seemed that the crowding was worse than anticipated, in all parks. October has become a very popular time to visit, plus the new Diagon Alley, coupled with the recent opening of 7DMT and the new parade at MK, meant a lot of people descending on Orlando.

It's quite possible that the most recommended parks were still less busy than the other ones. I'm not sure. Everything is relative.

The crowd calendar was dead on about one thing: when we went to the MK at 4 p.m. for the Halloween Party, we were amazed at the lower crowds, as compared to every other day that we had gone to the Kingdom. We went straight to Splash Mountain, and were delighted that the posted wait time was either 15 or 20 minutes. Not sure which, but that was by far the lowest we had seen all week! And this was a very warm afternoon, with a hot sun beaming down.

On most visits, we went to Magic Kingdom on non-party days, usually arriving in the late afternoon or evening, because the Electrical Parade was our top priority during this trip. So we definitely saw the contrast, and the crowd calendar was exactly right on that score.

 

[Cals dad]

Wouldn't it stand to reason that the more popular these crowd calendars get, the more off they will be? If more and more people look at one and think, "Magic Kingdom is supposed to be a 2 that day, that's when we'll go", then wouldn't that park now get an influx of people that day expecting lower crowds? I know it's a small fraction of people that follow these calendars, but with all the planning people have to do now, it seems more and more people all the time make use of them. It adds up.

 

[AngiTN]

Wouldn't it stand to reason that the more popular these crowd calendars get, the more off they will be? If more and more people look at one and think, "Magic Kingdom is supposed to be a 2 that day, that's when we'll go", then wouldn't that park now get an influx of people that day expecting lower crowds? I know it's a small fraction of people that follow these calendars, but with all the planning people have to do now, it seems more and more people all the time make use of them. It adds up.

It's possible but I really don't think so. As you said, so few, when you consider how many total visit WDW on a given day, make any plan at all, the numbers of those that do really don't have any impact on the crowds.

 

[JennyDrake]

I've kind have come to the conclusion there is no such thing as a 1-4 crowd anymore, except a few rare days in September. Our last week of August trip showed a 4 and MK was most recommended on Easy, and we had to leave by 2pm when I was questioning if they were near closing due to capacity.

DITTO!

I'v been going to WD 3-5x/year for the last 10 years and truly there is no SLOW time anymore like there used to be. I put VERY little faith in crowd calendars.

 

[AngiTN]

I don't ever use the numbers put on a given day. It doesn't matter to me if it's a 4 or a 6 or an 8. What I go by and follow is red/green or recommended/not recommended. A 2 at a red park and a 2 at a green park feel very different. As long as I go with the most recommended park that day I have had success. Anytime I deviate from that I can tell. When you stick with the most recommended park the numbers assigned for the crowds is less significant.

 

[This is my happyface]

You go to the park because the numbers indicate it is a 2 however as everybody uses FP+ to some extent and is more on line these days with phones/tablets etc so does everybody else, these fan sites are not for the minority any more, add to that FP+ spreading the distribution due to availability of the headliners and it all evens out, as somebody says no quiet time of year any more, just some days may be more quiet than some other days.