February direct sales but also debate about trusts

[Sandisw]

I agree, but not in the way you think.

From the point of view of a day-to-day DVC owner, the cabins are being sold like any other DVC resort. You buy points homed at resort X, you get 11 months booking there, and 7 months everywhere else. The fact that the legal structure is different has nothing to do with anything.

I expect Poly to be the same thing, and it will not have 11 month cross-booking privileges with the cabins. It doesn't matter whether it is sold beneficial interests in a trust or as a fractional deeded leasehold, my bet is that the usage model is not changing.

I'll also give slightly longer odds on Something Like Reflections eventually being built and being part of the same association as the cabins.

It may not change with Poly tower but I am feeling pretty confident it will in the future.

And while I do think each plan will have its own one month advantage, I also believe we will see changes to that structure down the line where there is a benefit to buying the new product.

Since people get home resort advantage under the plan, and the plan allows multiple properties to be in the same one, they can certainly sell it where there is a combo of units for more than one spot


Since the cabins are the only property as of now, of course it is working the same way. It will only be when they decide to add more properties will we know if the changes will occur in making it different than the current product in terms of booking.

I agree that the leasehold vs RTU can function the same way but there is also some differences in the actual CFW POS as well that I think supports a move down the line.

As I said, maybe not Poly tower, but only because of the announcement they made in December and even that, leaves me with some doubt how things will go.

 

[Sandisw]

Not sure the ability to book early at the lowest end DVC property, which I hesitate to even call a resort, would mean anything to potential Poly2 buyers. In that case, the trust just becomes different legalese for the same kind of contract and system we currently have.

But, it may not be about just the here and now but the future shift....regardless, if buying the product becomes different in terms of home resort.

Let say they decide to add Poly tower units to the same plan as CFW and both become your home resort.

Those who want Poly tower get both and the way the plan is set up is they can lump them all together. Those who want CFW get both.

This new product allows that. As I have said, maybe Poly tower isn’t the next resort to be lumped in but something will down the line.

 

[Brian Noble]

It may not change with Poly tower but I am feeling pretty confident it will in the future.

Will it change someday? I would expect so. It's a much simpler system to explain to a sales prospect. It's also a good way to churn existing owners, especially as resorts come and go.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

There’s been absolutely zero mention of the Cabins by guides, other than the initial email my guide sent me many weeks ago. I chatted with several DVC guides at Aulani and Grand Californian the last two weeks. Plenty of offers to send me info on VDH at both locations, they’re actively promoting both Aulani and VDH at both locations, but nobody even breathed a word about the Cabins being for sale. Maybe it’s because I was on the wrong coast but it felt strange. I asked a guide on my second to last day why no one is trying to sell the Cabins to me, he said there was an issue a few weeks ago with Cabin sales. I didn’t push for more details but it was odd.

 

[supercarrie]

There’s been absolutely zero mention of the Cabins by guides, other than the initial email my guide sent me many weeks ago. I chatted with several DVC guides at Aulani and Grand Californian the last two weeks. Plenty of offers to send me info on VDH at both locations, they’re actively promoting both Aulani and VDH at both locations, but nobody even breathed a word about the Cabins being for sale. Maybe it’s because I was on the wrong coast but it felt strange. I asked a guide on my second to last day why no one is trying to sell the Cabins to me, he said there was an issue a few weeks ago with Cabin sales. I didn’t push for more details but it was odd.

Same here! When we toured VDH, the guide was talking about how it has the longest expiration date, and then, basically as an afterthought, she said "oh, I guess the Cabins technically are longer now." No other mention, no emails/phone calls, etc. Meanwhile lots of follow up on VDH, Aulani and even Riviera. I'd chalk it up to the West Coast bias apart from the big Riviera push, too.

 

[maui22]

But, it may not be about just the here and now but the future shift....regardless, if buying the product becomes different in terms of home resort.

Let say they decide to add Poly tower units to the same plan as CFW and both become your home resort.

Those who want Poly tower get both and the way the plan is set up is they can lump them all together. Those who want CFW get both.

This new product allows that. As I have said, maybe Poly tower isn’t the next resort to be lumped in but something will down the line.

If both are lumped together and have the same booking window and share dues, how would resale work?

Will resale buyers of the trust have ability to book both CFW and Poly tower?

Disney Vacation Club Management, LLC is classified as a "Managing Entity" and has 3 parties it is responsible for today. All are resale restricted resorts.

• Disney's Riviera Resort
• Villas at Disneyland Hotel
• Cabins at Disney's Fort Wilderness Resort Use Plan.

Does that mean CFW resales will be restricted to CFW? If so, wouldn't it be likely CFW dues (47.7% higher than PVB's) will be expensive to use at Polynesian tower (assuming similar dues as PVB if they changed plans since December).

Hopefully we find out in the next 7-10 days.

 

[Brian Noble]

There’s been absolutely zero mention of the Cabins by guides, other than the initial email my guide sent me many weeks ago.

...which tells me that the Powers That Be are de-prioritizing it for the moment.

 

[T00dles]

...which tells me that the Powers That Be are de-prioritizing it for the moment.

Right. What's the rush? From D's perspective CFW points are close to no-cost development, and anything not sold by DVC will easily book on cash.

 

[skier_pete]

I've always thought that the Cabins may be showing a different plan for DVC. Not typical at all,. but these cabins have always been sold out via cash sales. Perhaps DVC knows that sales are going to be ****, but is willing to take the cash sales. I mean, it's the antithesis of what DVC is about (make your money up front) but maybe that's what they are thinking here.

It's early, but I think it's no shock that this will not sell well to existing members - the dues alone would turn most members away. We really have to see next months data.

 

[Sandisw]

If both are lumped together and have the same booking window and share dues, how would resale work?

Will resale buyers of the trust have ability to book both CFW and Poly tower?

Disney Vacation Club Management, LLC is classified as a "Managing Entity" and has 3 parties it is responsible for today. All are resale restricted resorts.

• Disney's Riviera Resort
• Villas at Disneyland Hotel
• Cabins at Disney's Fort Wilderness Resort Use Plan.

Does that mean CFW resales will be restricted to CFW? If so, wouldn't it be likely CFW dues (47.7% higher than PVB's) will be expensive to use at Polynesian tower (assuming similar dues as PVB if they changed plans since December).

Hopefully we find out in the next 7-10 days.

The way it is set up is that the property is added to the plan and that when you buy into the Resort Use Plan, you are buying access to any and all property for that specific plan. If they decide to add more than one component site to a specific plan, then resale buyers are restricted to the property in that plan.

So, those buying today are not buying a piece of CFW, but rather buying a timeshare plan that gives them the right to book the cabins, since the cabins are the only resort property currently activated into that plan.

Technically, if they wanted to, they could add units from Poly tower (or elsewhere) to that same plan and then those who bought today would now have use to any units declared into the plan. When DVD activates property into the plan, and the way this new trust situation is worded is that the points are calculated for sale, but if more than one component site exists under the same plan, those points are just one big pool.

Now, because of resale restrictions, I have to be honest that I lean against them making everything one big plan...I think what we will see, even if it doesn't involve Poly tower at this time, but down the line is that new properties will go in under their own vacation plan, with the one month advantage, and then early access to others...

However, these are just different ways they could go. Hypothetically, if they did decide to lump everything under the Cabins Resort Use plan, then those that want Poly tower for home resort advantage would end up with home resort to CFW (and vice versa), regardless of whether or not they want it.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I thought that just occurred to me is the following:

Even though we mostly perceive the cabins as “not really deluxe” or “the least nice DVC resort” — there is a big incentive for Disney to lump it into DVC 2.0 trust (if that is happening, which the most educated members of this board assume it is), because of it’s very friendly point chart. Poly tower will almost certainly be worse than VGF—putting it together with CFW would, for example, allow guides to do price comparisons for cabins v. 1 bedroom hotel suites, instead of having to use Poly points numbers.

 

[CastAStone]

I've always thought that the Cabins may be showing a different plan for DVC. Not typical at all,. but these cabins have always been sold out via cash sales. Perhaps DVC knows that sales are going to be ****, but is willing to take the cash sales. I mean, it's the antithesis of what DVC is about (make your money up front) but maybe that's what they are thinking here.

It's early, but I think it's no shock that this will not sell well to existing members - the dues alone would turn most members away. We really have to see next months data.

Perhaps! The reason to do it is that it keeps the replacement expense *off their balance sheet entirely*. It hits cash flows but cancels out before the income statement and balance sheet.

If it takes 10 years to sell, as long as they’re renting them, who cares, the entire thing was an accounting trick anyway.

Ya know, perhaps.

 

[Paul Stupin]

But, it may not be about just the here and now but the future shift....regardless, if buying the product becomes different in terms of home resort.

Let say they decide to add Poly tower units to the same plan as CFW and both become your home resort.

Those who want Poly tower get both and the way the plan is set up is they can lump them all together. Those who want CFW get both.

This new product allows that. As I have said, maybe Poly tower isn’t the next resort to be lumped in but something will down the line.

The new product might allow it, but as you said, grouping Poly2 with CFW is not likely to interest anyone. And say they finally get around to building some spectacular new version of Reflections. Why grant booking priority access to Poly2 to Refections buyers? DVC certainly won’t need to do anything to sweeten the deal when it comes to selling a spectacular new resort.

 

[walt34]

The guides might not push CFW that hard currently but all the DVC information points in the parks I passed in the past few days had the ‘book’ opened on the CFW page. Certainly gives a different vibe than when they had Riviera there. I wonder whether this has an impact on first contacts.

 

[Sandisw]

The new product might allow it, but as you said, grouping Poly2 with CFW is not likely to interest anyone. And say they finally get around to building some spectacular new version of Reflections. Why grant booking priority access to Poly2 to Refections buyers? DVC certainly won’t need to do anything to sweeten the deal when it comes to selling a spectacular new resort.

I think that there are people who might like a multi home resort product including these two.

But, I definitely believe they are changing and we are going to see grouping of resorts in some way and that buying in the future won’t end up the same.

Until I see it in product documents that they will sell Poly tower with no connection to a RTU plan or even the trust, I think it’s still an option.

My point was more that if DVD decided to bundle, whether an owner wants it that way or not, they will get it. And, I think new buyers who don’t have anything else to compare it to, won’t care.

Just like those buying CFW..currently they have home resort priority for the cabins but they also have a contract that states they can add other rooms at other places to their plan and that points can be reallocated across them all.

 

[Sandisw]

I thought that just occurred to me is the following:

Even though we mostly perceive the cabins as “not really deluxe” or “the least nice DVC resort” — there is a big incentive for Disney to lump it into DVC 2.0 trust (if that is happening, which the most educated members of this board assume it is), because of it’s very friendly point chart. Poly tower will almost certainly be worse than VGF—putting it together with CFW would, for example, allow guides to do price comparisons for cabins v. 1 bedroom hotel suites, instead of having to use Poly points numbers.

If they decide to add Poly tower to the same plan as the cabins, the current trust documents allow them to reallocate points amongst both. They do not stay point neutral in the same way because it can be treated as one big pool.

So, that could be a game changer down the road if and when this expands.

 

[aammtt20]

Here’s a hypothetical question for down the road - do we think there will be resale restrictions on the resorts within the trust, in terms of their trust benefits? For example, let’s say poly 2.0 ends up as part of the trust and P2.0 and CFW have priority booking at each others resort (exactly what this would like tbd… but for the sake of this example, more of a priority than the 7 month folks have).

Now, let’s say you bought resale for a contract in the trust - would dvc allow the resale buyer to get priority reservation access to all resorts in the trust like the direct buyer would have, or do you think resale buyers would be limited to just their home resort in the trust and not the other trust resorts (thus losing out on any perks of the trust)?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If they decide to add Poly tower to the same plan as the cabins, the current trust documents allow them to reallocate points amongst both. They do not stay point neutral in the same way because it can be treated as one big pool.

So, that could be a game changer down the road if and when this expands.

Am I understanding you correctly that they could make CFW more points total and the next property fewer points total than it launches with?

 

[Sandisw]

Am I understanding you correctly that they could make CFW more points total and the next property fewer points total than it launches with?

That is correct because the way the trust system works is that property is still owned by DVD and if they put more property under the same trust use plan, then it’s considered all on “home resort”

That’s one of the big differences with what this trust model can created. Now, the trust also allows for multiple use plans.

If I understand that piece correctly, in those cases, I don’t think it can reallocate in that way.

But, if you have a plan that has units at two different locations, then all points are sold as one big pool.

That’s why why you read the deeds filed you don’t see any attachment to any specific cabin right now. That’s because you are not getting ownership into one, unlike the leasehold condo situation of the other resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

Here’s a hypothetical question for down the road - do we think there will be resale restrictions on the resorts within the trust, in terms of their trust benefits? For example, let’s say poly 2.0 ends up as part of the trust and P2.0 and CFW have priority booking at each others resort (exactly what this would like tbd… but for the sake of this example, more of a priority than the 7 month folks have).

Now, let’s say you bought resale for a contract in the trust - would dvc allow the resale buyer to get priority reservation access to all resorts in the trust like the direct buyer would have, or do you think resale buyers would be limited to just their home resort in the trust and not the other trust resorts (thus losing out on any perks of the trust)?

If current Cabins resort use plan restricts resale to just the cabins, as they are the only property under that plan.

If they added Poly tower to the trust but under a different vacation plan..so people choose which plan to buy RTU in, and that has restrictions as well, then those resale contracts would be restricted to just Poly tower.

The only way that a resale contract would get access to more than component site IF DVD put them in the same plan as the cabins.

I tend to lean they won’t do that but it’s technically how they can set the trust up if they decide they want that.

It’s also set up in such a way that they could begin to cluster resorts too.

To bring this back to sales, it’s what makes me wonder if they are up to something with the Poly tower project given the weak sales and incentives put on the CFW use plan.