One time there were huge crowds at MK and nobody knew why. Lines were crazy long for security and for rides. Turns out certain areas of the country closed schools for a couple of days for a Jewish holiday. It had a big impact on crowds that the calendars did not account for. Then people complain, "The crowd calendar said it would be a 5 and it was definitely an 8."

Ugh, I hate that. I don't want people to give up crowd calendars because someone is "shocked" that the crowd calendar is wrong. But that being said, I can't expect any better from people because it's amazing how often people talk smack to our local meteorologist on twitter because "they cancelled plans because he said it would rain" and he just blasts right back "I said 40%, this is your fault" or "it's called a prediction, I never said cancel your plans".
That's what crowd calendar makers should do.![]()
I wouldn't say Jewish holidays are unpredictable. They need to be taken into account every time there is one. It's a little harder to do than most holidays since they change from year to year, but it's well known that they increase crowds. Any good calendar needs to take them into account.It was too difficult to predict. too many variables. Any one thing can cause a spike in crowds, things like holidays in certain parts of the country, marathons, parties, early entry, early morning parties, etc. It was too much. Plus, in slower times, Disney understaffs and closes tracks on a multi-track ride, so not all tracks are open etc. so you will still wait. It just became too unpredictable.
One time there were huge crowds at MK and nobody knew why. Lines were crazy long for security and for rides. Turns out certain areas of the country closed schools for a couple of days for a Jewish holiday. It had a big impact on crowds that the calendars did not account for. Then people complain, "The crowd calendar said it would be a 5 and it was definitely an 8."
At least that was my take on why he stopped.
Last year he mentioned that WDW cuts staff when crowds are lower, so your wait times, etc. will still be longer. He didn't feel comfortable predicting crowds because of the uncertainty.
I wouldn't say Jewish holidays are unpredictable. They need to be taken into account every time there is one. It's a little harder to do than most holidays since they change from year to year, but it's well known that they increase crowds. Any good calendar needs to take them into account.
I see what you mean, but... I don't make my own crowd calendars, but if I did, I would definitely look up when Jewish holidays are and take that into some consideration when determining crowd levels. Certain schools in certain states observe Jewish holidays, but it's not like it's a surprise or inconsistently observed. I wouldn't think you'd need to look up every school schedule- just assume that there's going to be a not insignificant number of families heading down during weekday Jewish holidays. It's fairly consistent that there is an uptick in crowds during Jewish holidays that are observed on a weekday.Not that the Jewish holidays are unpredictable, but folks who do the crowd calendars aren't going to look at every school calendar in the U.S. to see if they are closed for the holiday or not. From what I understand only certain schools in certain states observed the holiday and closed school, and the way they fell was on a Mon and Tues, so many people took the week off and went to Disney. It was enough to spike the crowds. It wasn't on any of the calendars radars.
I'm wondering if he didn't do May or June because they might be more unpredictable with the Pandora opening.