In addition to all the changes and problems you discuss, I would assume most for profit enterprises are borrowing forward to rent all or most of their points. If commercial enterprises own more than a few percent of total points at a resort, that will also compound availability problems, both in the categories they book and in other categories as owners trickle down into their 2nd/3rd/4th choice rooms. It’s not a coincidence that you’re almost always buying max stripped contracts from renters.
Of course trying to maximize profit is a commercial use— it’s difficult to imagine any defense of spec renting that wouldn’t be totally focused on commercial incentives.
The reason it’s difficult every week and not just popular weeks to travel is *because* of spec renters. Ordinary owners may want to maximize points, but they are still going to travel less in certain seasons, but because they are a less desirable time to travel, the points are extremely low, and spec renters will grab them to maximize profits. These are times that used to be available more frequently at least until the 7 day mark, but now renter-owners will snag them trusting they can fill it with someone at $30/pt or more.
I’d bet good money this is the real reason Disney is taking action. They don’t want to be renting rooms for the cost of your average rental, but they are having to drop rates to compete with the people advertising rental
DVC units.
I think the degree of the crackdown will be determined by whatever it takes to increase occupancy and reduce significant discounts. If the economy is strong they may only need to go after the major players, if it keeps weakening, people renting points to pay for points are more likely to end up in the crosshairs. I would be OK with either option so long as they end spec renting of the most profitable rooms, which would push out many of the people who only own points for the money.
Anybody who relies on legal advice suggesting that the only restriction on “commercial use” is that you can’t hang a shingle and run a business like a
travel agency, nightclub, or medical clinic out of your timeshare is setting themselves up for disappointment and possible financial disaster.
Disney has been clear about this for decades.
People often reference “up to 20 reservations” but very few point out that if you went over 20, you needed to demonstrate to Disney that not a single one of your first 20 reservations was a rental, not 19 were OK, not even a few, you were locked out unless you demonstrated they were all not rentals. People should keep this in mind when deciding their risk tolerance and what they think DVC will tolerate as personal use.
Here’s an idea: what if (instead of getting mired in personal use ambiguity) Disney made you check a box at the time you run a search that it is or isn’t a rental, before you can see availability. If it is a rental, you need to upload the rental contract before booking. Still allows for the periodic rental situation and shouldn’t interfere with less toxic rentals of excess points to confirmed renters, but would prevent spec renting and provide a natural disadvantage for the rooms that are in extremely high demand?