DVC Prices Plummet!

[vascubaguy]

Wow... I haven't really looked at the resale listing for awhile but seeing this thread got me "interested". I never thought I'd be in a position of not having enough points but I'm actually in a state of constantly borrowing points and thought about possibly adding on, but not seriously considered as of yet.

I can remember back when you'd check the resale listings and there might be 2 pages of them... now I feel like I'm just scrolling and scrolling and scrollings.... There's a LOT of OKW and SSR listings... crazy!

Some of the BWV listings caught my eye so I might have to start watching a lil closer now.... (under $80 for a BWV contract!!!!)

 

[carlbarry]

Can you post the list you received? I would love to see that many choices for OKW currently available.

Disney's Old Key West $3,650 50 Oct 1,258,041
Disney's Old Key West $3,650 50 Oct 07- 50 pts, 08- 50pts, 09 - 50pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,650 50 Oct 07 -50pts, 08- 50pts, 09 - 50 pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,650 50 Oct 08 -50pts, 09 -50pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,650 50 Sept 07 - 96pts, 08 - 50pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,650 50 Sept 07 - 96pts, 08 -50 pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,700 50 Mar 08- 100pts, 09- 50pts, 10- 50pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,750 50 Feb 08 - 0 pts, 09 - 50 pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,750 50 Jun 08 - 50pts, 09 - 50pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,750 50 Jun 08 -50pts, 09 - 50pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,750 50 Jun 08 -50pts, 09 -50pts
Disney's Old Key West $3,750 50 OCTOBER 2008=50, 2009=50
Disney's Old Key West $3,900 50 Feb Use Yr- 50 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $4,500 60 DECEMBER 0 -07; 0 -08, 60 - 09
Disney's Old Key West $5,250 70 Jun 08 - 55pts, 09 -70pts, 10 - 70pts
Disney's Old Key West $5,250 70 Jun 08 - 70pts, 09 - 70pts
Disney's Old Key West $7,200 100 Sept Use Yr- 100 pts 07 - 100 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $7,300 100 Feb Use Yr- 86 pts 07 - 100 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $7,600 100 Mar 08 - 0 pts, 09 - 100 pts
Disney's Old Key West $7,700 100 Aug Use Yr- 100 pts 07 - 100 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $8,200 100 Sept Use Yr- 100 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $10,125 135 FEB 2008 - 84PTS, 2009 -135PTS
Disney's Old Key West $10,530 135 Aug Use Yr- 135 pts 07 - 135 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $10,500 140 DECEMBER 0 - 07; 0 - 08; 140 - 09
Disney's Old Key West $10,950 150 April Use Yr- 6 pt 08
Disney's Old Key West $11,000 150 Feb 08- 57pts, 09- 150pts, 10 - 150pts
Disney's Old Key West $11,000 150 FEBRUARY 2008 -0, 2009 -150
Disney's Old Key West $11,100 150 Oct Use Yr- 151 pts 07 - 150 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $11,250 150 Aug Use Yr- 150 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $11,250 150 Aug Use Yr- 200 pts 07 - 150 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $11,250 150 Aug Use Yr- 83 pts 07 - 150 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $11,550 150 SEPTEMBER 199 - 07; 150 - 08
Disney's Old Key West $11,700 150 Oct Use Yr- 175 pts 07 - 150 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $12,000 150 Apr Use Yr- 42 pts 07 - 150 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $13,500 150 OCT 150- 207, 150 - 08, 150 -09
Disney's Old Key West $12,464 164 Feb Use Yr- 58 pts 07 - 164 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $13,100 190 AUG 2007 -190, 2008 -190, 2009 -190
Disney's Old Key West $13,600 190 Oct 07 -159pts, 08 -380pts, 09 -190pts
Disney's Old Key West $14,200 200 Aug Use Yr- 200 pts 07 - 200 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $14,500 200 MARCH 2008 -400 PTS, 2009 -200 PTS
Disney's Old Key West $15,000 200 Mar 08- 294pts, 09- 150pts, 10 -150pts
Disney's Old Key West $15,000 200 OCT 2007 -44 PTS, 2008 -200 PTS
Disney's Old Key West $15,600 200 March Use Yr- 205 pts 07 - 200 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $13,900 210 April use yr- 420 pts 08- 210 pts 09
Disney's Old Key West $14,700 210 Sept Use Yr- 228 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,120 210 Sept Use Yr- 369 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,330 210 Feb Use Yr- 210 pts 08 1,159,482
Disney's Old Key West $15,350 210 Sept- 210 for 08- 210 for 09
Disney's Old Key West $15,750 210 Apr Use Yr- 0 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,750 210 APRIL 333- 2008, 210 -2009
Disney's Old Key West $15,750 210 Dec Use Yr- 216 pts 07 - 210 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,750 210 Dec Use Yr- 397 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,750 210 Jun Use Yr- 210 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,750 210 March Use Yr- 14 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,750 210 Oct Use Yr- 250 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,750 210 Sep Use Yr- 135 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,380 210 Apr Use Yr- 349 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,380 210 Aug Use Yr- 15 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,380 210 Sept Use Yr- 273 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,800 210 Apr Use Yr- 320 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,800 210 DECEMBER 399 - 07; 210 -
Disney's Old Key West $16,800 210 Jun Use Yr- 280 pts 07 - 210 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,350 218 March Use Yr- 265 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $15,400 220 OCTOBER 95 -07; 220 -08
Disney's Old Key West $16,250 220 Sept 08 - 168 pts, 09 - 220 pts
Disney's Old Key West $16,500 220 Aug Use Yr- 440 pts 07 - 220 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,500 220 Feb Use Yr- 232 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,500 220 OCT 2008 -440 PTS, 2009 - 220 PTS
Disney's Old Key West $16,500 220 Oct Use Yr- 220 pts 07 - 220 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $17,000 220 Feb Use Yr- 86 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $17,000 220 MARCH 220 - 08, 220 - 09
Disney's Old Key West $17,380 220 Dec Use Yr- 440 pts 07 - 220 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $14,900 230 Sept- 295 for 08, 230 for 09
Disney's Old Key West $16,000 230 Aug 08 - 319 pts, 09 - 230 pts
Disney's Old Key West $16,000 230 Aug Use Yr- 20 pts 07 - 230 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,000 230 Sept 07 -7pts, 08 -262pts, 09 -230pts
Disney's Old Key West $16,100 230 Apr Use Yr- 230 pts 07 - 230 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,100 230 Dec- 460 for 07 (176 hldg) 230 for 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,100 230 FEBRUARY 460 - 08; 230 -09
Disney's Old Key West $16,100 230 Oct 07 -179pts, 08 -230pts
Disney's Old Key West $16,700 230 OCT 07 -230, 08 230 , 09 -230
Disney's Old Key West $16,790 230 Oct 07 -230pts, 08 -230pts, 09 -230pts
Disney's Old Key West $17,000 230 Feb Use Yr- 230 pts 08 1,108,489
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 Aug Use Yr- 149 pts 07 - 230 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 Aug Use Yr- 230 pts 08 1,209,384
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 Aug Use Yr- 345 pts 07 - 230 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 FEB 08 -460, 2009 -230, 2010-230
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 FEBRUARY 2008 -460, 2009 -230
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 Jun 08 - 230 pts, 09 - 230pts
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 Jun 08 -212pts, 09 -230 pts
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 MAR USE YR - 230 PTS 08 - 230 PTS 09
Disney's Old Key West $17,250 230 OCTOBER 2008 =230, 2009=230
Disney's Old Key West $17,480 230 JUN USE YR - 206 PTS 07 - 460 PTS 08
Disney's Old Key West $17,940 230 Feb Use Yr- 293 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $18,000 230 Jun Use Yr- 256 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $18,170 230 Dec Use Yr- 451 pts 07 - 230 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $18,400 230 Apr Use Yr- 162 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $18,400 230 Dec Use Yr- 49 pts 07 - 230 pts 230
Disney's Old Key West $18,400 230 Sept Use Yr- 46 pts 07 - 230 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $18,500 232 Oct Use Yr- 329 pts 07 - 232 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $16,750 250 Aug Use Yr- 428 for 08, 250 for09
Disney's Old Key West $18,250 250 Mar 08 - 179 pts, 09 - 250 pts
Disney's Old Key West $18,750 250 Aug 07- 24pts, 08- 250pts, 09- 250 pts
Disney's Old Key West $18,750 250 Feb Use Yr- 406 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $19,500 260 Aug Use Yr- 317 pts 07 - 260 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $19,500 260 June- 215 for 08, 260 for 09, 260 for 10
Disney's Old Key West $20,280 260 Jun Use Yr- 17 pts 07 - 260 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $19,000 270 Aug 08 - 30 pts, 09 -270 pts
Disney's Old Key West $19,440 270 DEC 2007 -17, 2008 -270, 2009 -270
Disney's Old Key West $19,710 270 MARCH 416 - 2008, 270 - 2009
Disney's Old Key West $20,250 270 Feb 08 - 114 pts, 09 -270 pts
Disney's Old Key West $20,250 270 March 2008 -156pts, 2009 -270pts
Disney's Old Key West $20,900 270 Dec 07 - 0 pts, 08 - 252 pts, 09 -270pts
Disney's Old Key West $21,000 270 MARCH 2008 -258 PTS, 2009 -270 PTS
Disney's Old Key West $21,000 270 MARCH 2008 -276 PTS, 2009 -270 PTS
Disney's Old Key West $21,060 270 Jun Use Yr- 270 pts 07 - 270 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $21,600 270 Oct Use Yr- 206 pts 07 - 270 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $20,880 290 June- 198 for 08- 290 for 09
$21,000 300 APRIL 08-330 , 09 -300 , 2010- 300
Disney's Old Key West $21,600 300 Jun Use Yr- 88 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $21,900 300 Feb Use Yr- 600 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $22,500 300 Oct Use Yr- 397 pts 07 -300 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $23,100 300 Feb 08 - 600pts, 09 -300pts
Disney's Old Key West $23,400 300 Sept Use Yr- 303 pts 07 - 300 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $25,500 300 Dec use Yr- 539 pts 07 - 300 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $21,000 310 Feb 08 - 0pts, 09 -310pts Disney's Old Key West $22,940 310 Sept Use Yr- 315 pts 07 - 310 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $24,800 310 Aug Use Yr- 620 pts 07 - 310 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $28,050 330 Oct Use Yr- 81 pts 07 - 330 pts 08 1
Disney's Old Key West $25,160 340 Apr Use Yr- 340 pts 07 - 340 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $25,200 350 Jun 08 -639pts, 09 - 350pts
Disney's Old Key West $26,250 350 Dec Use Yr- 536 pts 07 - 350 pts 08 1,
Disney's Old Key West $28,000 350 FEB 2008 - 33 PTS, 2009 - 350 PTS
Disney's Old Key West $26,900 372 June use yr- 125 for 07- 372 for 08
Disney's Old Key West $27,072 376 Mar Use Yr- 226 pts 07 - 376 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $32,000 400 Apr Use Yr- 400 pts 07 - 400 pts 08
Disney's Old Key West $29,000 405 DEC USE YR - 405 PTS 07 - 405 PTS 08
Disney's Old Key West $31,500 420 Jun 08 - 266 pts, 09 - 420 pts 1,258,182
Disney's Old Key West $34,500 460 Feb Use Yr- 460 for 08- 460 for 09
Disney's Old Key West $43,400 620 MARCH 08 -930,09 -620, 2010 - 620

 

[troynkasey]

Here is something else to consider that could eventually contribute to these prices dropping. If the new add on at the Contemporary is a DVC resort as speculated, that could spark more resales from people wanting to sell out of the current contract to get a new one at a new resort like that.

Personally...we're looking and looking pretty seriously, but not needing to make amove until 2009, these drops are exactly what I'm looking for. Why buy new from Disney, when you can go resale at a substantially lower price?

 

[lugnut33]

Here is something else to consider that could eventually contribute to these prices dropping. If the new add on at the Contemporary is a DVC resort as speculated, that could spark more resales from people wanting to sell out of the current contract to get a new one at a new resort like that.

Personally...we're looking and looking pretty seriously, but not needing to make amove until 2009, these drops are exactly what I'm looking for. Why buy new from Disney, when you can go resale at a substantially lower price?

Well, DVC is in a Catch 22 exactly because of people like you. As they continue to approve re-sales at lower and lower prices, they will also have to offer their current inventory at lower prices to keep people from the re-sale market. That's one reason you are seeing such great discounts and offers for AKV.

I wonder if they are realizing they won't be able to jack the BLT prices like they want to? Would anyone really pay $35 more per point (assuming the new BLT is priced at $115 per point, but I've read right here it could be more around $125) just be be near the Magic Kingdom and on the Monorail? Especially when you could buy SSR resale at $80 and under? Maybe DVC is trying to clear out re-sale inventory so it doesn't compete against the new resorts?

 

[ldo]

As with other TS, I am betting that only a small fraction of people buy (or even know about) resale--and I would guess less with DVC that even other TS--it's a pleasant experience to do the DVC tour and the cost savings is not that much for resale vs. DVC (vs. being able to buy a $20-25K timeshare for $5-8K resale--which is prett much the norm for other TS).
I think DVC will price BLT or AKV at what the market will pay. I think sales are slowing at AKV, which is why we are seeing the incentives--who ever heard of an incentive to add-on 50 points? They also cannot drop the stated price lower than prior purchaser paid for PR reasons, but they can add incentives--which I think we will see more of--such as 2 AP (I think) at Doorway to Dreams, etc.
I do not think BLT will support $135 price in this economy. Most of DVC purchasers are new "off the street" people, and not prior DVCer's switching resorts. At the current price point, staying at DVC or a moderate are about a toss up cost-wise on a spreadsheet---if they move away from that price point, I do not think they will have a broad a base to sell to, IMHO. Elaine

 

[musical2]

I received via email from a reseller a list of OKW properties for sale. There are about 130 listings. That strikes me as a HUGE amount. Maybe someone here with more experience can give an evaluation.

carlbarry,

Would you post the name of that reseller or PM me with it?

 

[PamOKW]

Lots of factors at work -- over the years I've seen many people talk about buying DVC who sounded like maybe they really shouldn't be spending the money. People who "stretched" by taking home equity loans to buy DVC may find themselves in trouble as the value of their homes dropped. I also wouldn't be surprised to see OKW coming on the market. The early buyers of DVC tended to be the grandparents rather than younger families. DVC buyers were in their 50's, 60's and 70'. Those people would now be in their 70's and 80's and even 90's a time when their DVC ownership may be at the point of passing on to their heirs. In some cases, the new owners may just want to sell rather than keep the membership going. The original owners paid low prices and certainly got the value out of DVC membership -- if they purchased for $50 and can still sell for $75 after 16 years of use, that's still doing more than all right.

 

[chalee94]

carlbarry,

Would you post the name of that reseller or PM me with it?

just look on ebay...

 

[troynkasey]

I think people would pay $135 a point to stay within a monorail ride of the MK. I wouldn't knowing there are other very nice resorts for cheaper.

It's just like anything....DVC depreciates. I think with AKV, now the market is somewhat saturated. With saturation, the resales will drop because people need to sell. If Disney envokes ROFR, then those looking for resales look elsewhere. Problem is they can only do that for some resales, so some will have to be let through...leading to a lower price.

I'm not sure if things will change much. I think resales will bottom out eventually, but if you've owned for say 10 years, you've paid for what you've put in, so you're not losing money by listing something at $70 a point. I anticipate that happening here in the near future. Those who have owned the original DVC properties will realize they don't need to get $80 a point and will ask less and still come out ahead.

It's basic economics of supply and demand and Disney either risks taking a whole lot more deeds back in envoking ROFR or letting the resale market go.

 

[lapeter]

Another thing that will affect DVC prices are airfares. A lot of people fly there and fares have already gone up 40-50%. Last April 2008 we flew Maui to Orlando for around $800 on United. Today to book a flight in say Feb. 2009 from Maui to Orlando it is $1500 with fewer flights and bad connections. We just might skip a trip there in 2009. Just too expensive. I don't own DVC and was looking in to it.

 

[kimberh]

Another thing that will affect DVC prices are airfares. A lot of people fly there and fares have already gone up 40-50%. Last April 2008 we flew Maui to Orlando for around $800 on United. Today to book a flight in say Feb. 2009 from Maui to Orlando it is $1500 with fewer flights and bad connections. We just might skip a trip there in 2009. Just too expensive. I don't own DVC and was looking in to it.

That is expensive air from Maui, so I am wondering what that is going to do to the Maui Tourism? When we flew to Maui in 2006, it was under $700.00. I am not paying $1500 to fly to Hawaii. Things are going to have to settle down for us to fly to Hawaii again. I have bought tickets to Spain for $800.00, this was 2 months ago. I don't know what they are now. I use Skymiles for everything that I can, they are asking for more miles. The $800. ticket to Spain was over 100,000 miles for a bad flight. I just paid the the money and received a great flight with one layover.

 

[tvwalsh]

We paid 217.50 each for two tickets to go to OKW from Milwaukee 1/11/09-1/17/09 on our hometown airline, Midwest. The same two seats would now cost $1622.96!

If any others are seeing price increases like this it will surely hurt DVC sales.

 

[carlbarry]

carlbarry,

Would you post the name of that reseller or PM me with it?

I would be gald to PM you, but I don't know how! I would state the name of the company here, but I don't know if they want this list published. If you can tell me how to PM you, I will. Thanks.
As Emily Latellah used to say, "Never mind." I found out how to PM you, and I did.

 

[kimberh]

We paid 217.50 each for two tickets to go to OKW from Milwaukee 1/11/09-1/17/09 on our hometown airline, Midwest. The same two seats would now cost $1622.96!

If any others are seeing price increases like this it will surely hurt DVC sales.

This is unreal! I am wondering if this is going to hurt DVC Stays or even Disney Stays.

 

[carlbarry]

Probably just means that more Europeans will be visiting.

 

[Lisa F]

I agree 100%

I got a 50 point contract as VWL becuase of it at 81.

Wow, someone misrepresented your seller. I just sold a 50 point contract at vwl and it sold for $87/point in about an hour.

 

[nickspace]

I wouldn't be surprised if Disney slowed down building new DVC resorts after the current projects are completed to slow down on the supply end of the equation to stabilize the resale prices. If the resale prices continue to look more and more attractive that may hurt the sale of new properties. What do others think?

I think the airfares will eventually level out over time but that is currently an issue for many people. People know how much they want to spend and will curb their travel to accommodate. This will slow down the DVC demand for a while.

 

[carlbarry]

I think that Disney is very smart, and I am sure that they do studies as to just how many rooms the tourism can support. But it seems to me that with the vacancy rate in Orlando, the growth would have to stop sometime. It would also seem that with new, more modern units being introduced, that they would have to give some incentive to buy the older units. Voila! Lower prices for the old units.

 

[TenThousandVolts]

carlbarry,

Would you post the name of that reseller or PM me with it?

It is a GMAC list - I believe.

 

[lugnut33]

Probably just means that more Europeans will be visiting.

Their flight costs are rapidly increasing also.