DVC Point Charts for 2011 - Post chart release discussion begins on Pg 14

[corpcomp]

In a lot of cases the points required for a 1BR for a week in Premier season actually went down. I don't have the BCV charts in front of me but you may find that the point reallocation actually helps you.

No it went up slightly. I just checked and the schools have a Feb break in 2011 so we will move our vacation to Feb - probably less crowds and lower points (we only have 240) and definitely lower airfare. Then we will go somewhere else for Easter - our friends are all talking about going to a dude ranch by the Grand Canyon. Would rather go on a cruise but DW hates boats (we owned a sailboat for 10 years and she still believes a 1000 foot cruiseliner would rock as much as a 30 footer.)

 

[mjy]

Quick comparison of BWV charts also shows flattening of difference between weekday and weekend nights. 7 night stays are about the same (within a few points) except that Premier Season rates have been adjusted some. For those of us who tend to stay a week, not earth-shattering. Those who have stayed weekdays and not weekends may have problems again, like last year.

Yeah, well, I'm one of those disappointed people. Over the years I have saved a LOT of points by vacationing there checking in Sunday and checking out Friday. I didn't want to use the large amount of extra points for Fridays and Saturdays. For me, this is a huge change . . . again . . . and I'm not terribly happy about it. They've got us over a barrel though. <sigh>

 

[tjkraz]

My info about the added sales due to the last relocation came from DVD in addition to DISers posting that they were so happy because Disney let them add additional points to their in process purchase.

If not for the fact that we all know how under-utilized the resorts are on weekends, I might be willing to entertain this discussion. But those resorts are sitting nearly empty. There's really no arguing that point.

It doesn't take many DVC trips to see how the resorts fill up on Sunday and empty out on Friday. You don't have to read the DIS for long to get a sense of how heavily weighted people are toward weekday stays. Call up today and I bet you can get a One or Two Bedroom villa at pretty much any resort for next weekend.

15 years ago that was probably not true. As others pointed out, the minimum purchase was higher and they did a better job of encouraging members to buy for a full week. But as time has gone on, more and more people bought to get a deal on Sunday-Thursday, and the system had to be adjusted to correct this problem.

A couple posts up I provided a link to direct sales stats going back about 4 years. Any sales driven by the previous reallocation would have been posted February or later. There are probably several hundred small add-on contracts spread over a 3-4 month period, but these don't add up to any massive increases, IMO.

If weekend occupancy wasn't already such a big problem, I'd happily discuss other theories. But when DVC is selling enough points for the resorts to be full year-round, and dozens--perhaps hundreds--of rooms are sitting empty every Friday and Saturday, there is a problem. Worst case the number of points being banked is outpacing borrowed points by greater numbers each year. If that's true, the system is building toward a truly dangerous point.

But even if circumstances aren't that dire, DVC knows that people are having difficulty using points in a manner they consider acceptable. Not only does that lead to member dissatisfaction, but Parks and Resorts are leaving dollars on the table. People who do not (cannot) use their points are not spending additional dollars on tickets, meals and so on.

Every so often there's a post from long-time members who say "I used to be able to get a reservation on 2-3 months notice and now I never can." Part of that problem is caused by the undesirability of weekends. If guest traffic is spread more evenly across the week, it should actually help overall availability including availability for those who choose (or are forced) to book on short notice.

 

[lugnut33]

Yeah, well, I'm one of those disappointed people. Over the years I have saved a LOT of points by vacationing there checking in Sunday and checking out Friday. I didn't want to use the large amount of extra points for Fridays and Saturdays. For me, this is a huge change . . . again . . . and I'm not terribly happy about it. They've got us over a barrel though. <sigh>

Yeah, but now you can stay for a weekend without feeling ripped off.... unless you feel ripped off because they increased the weekeday points. Then again, it opens the doors for you to do a weekend stay if you want. You might be able to do a weekend stay in a cheaper part of the year now. I felt the high points for weekends was crazy.

 

[mykidslovesdisney]

Well we are short once again for our usually vacations. After last years reallocation we where short 20ish points. So we brought a 55 pt resale contract. We stay in a 2bdrm at OKW/AKV in August. Alternating beg of the month w/ mid month each year - so we get 2 visits out of our APs.We use pts for the wkdays/cash for the wkends. We get 219 pts every year. Which was just enough after the last point change. This time around we are approx 22/17 pts short for our usual stay. We can't keep adding on. Overall there was over a 40 pt change in the last 2 yrs! Our family sized dicates a 2bdrm. I was aware that points could change be never imagined they would change this much. Either we are going to cut our trip a day short or pay out of pocket for an extra night. We can't go all in late August bc our school system starts back to school the last monday of the month. It would cut it too close. But even then we are short too. We can't go any other time of year. I don't want to take the kids out of school.

right now I think it stinks.
Vent over.

 

[lugnut33]

Well we are short once again for our usually vacations. After last years reallocation we where short 20ish points. So we brought a 55 pt resale contract. We stay in a 2bdrm at OKW/AKV in August. Alternating beg of the month w/ mid month each year - so we get 2 visits out of our APs.We use pts for the wkdays/cash for the wkends. We get 219 pts every year. Which was just enough after the last point change. This time around we are approx 22/17 pts short for our usual stay. We can't keep adding on. Overall there was over a 40 pt change in the last 2 yrs! Our family sized dicates a 2bdrm. I was aware that points could change be never imagined they would change this much. Either we are going to cut our trip a day short or pay out of pocket for an extra night. We can't go all in late August bc our school system starts back to school the last monday of the month. It would cut it too close. But even then we are short too. We can't go any other time of year. I don't want to take the kids out of school.

right now I think it stinks.
Vent over.

Then I read a post like this and it makes me feel terrible that DVC did the reallocation,

 

[jekjones1558]

If guest traffic is spread more evenly across the week, it should actually help overall availability

I agree and feel that this will happen. A reallocation that evens out demand makes booking any specific date easier. I just hope that the weekends are not now difficult to get because the premium for weekends is so small that locals will be using weekends more often.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I just hope that the weekends are not now difficult to get because the premium for weekends is so small that locals will be using weekends more often.

For me, this is a big concern. We normally vacation for 6-7 nights ...a couple times a year. I do believe the weekends will be gobbled up. What's the remedy for this issue? Adding on won't solve it.

 

[toocherie]

ok--maybe this has been asked and answered, but does anyone know what the breakdown is as to ownership of locals vs. non-locals?

 

[Chuck S]

ok--maybe this has been asked and answered, but does anyone know what the breakdown is as to ownership of locals vs. non-locals?

I guess it woud depend upon your efinition of locals. Parts of Georgia are closer to WDW than some areas of Florida. People that live right in the immediate Orlando area, percentage wise, probably rarely stay onsite. Many of those people who ive in the Orlando area that own points, either moved to Orlando after they owned the points, or purchased them to use when friends and family come to Florida to visit and spend a day or two at Disney.

And don't forget the added effect of the budget minded renter. Many of the Reservation Wanted posts on the R/T Board were wanting Sunday to Thursday rentals, and would move on weekedns, just like a lot of owners.

All of the Sunday to Thursday people played a role the re-allocations, and evidently had more of a detrimental effect on demand than the "locals" staying on the weekends.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The new allocation has both helped and hurt me. My BWV bw view was increased but since I usually include either a Sat or Fri night, I only realize a small loss. Now if I can find that "quiet" DVC resort I might stay a full week , then I stand to benefit. I took a hit with my BLT but will just alternate standard/ lake view stays. So not too much damage this go around.

 

[tjkraz]

I agree and feel that this will happen. A reallocation that evens out demand makes booking any specific date easier. I just hope that the weekends are not now difficult to get because the premium for weekends is so small that locals will be using weekends more often.

I do too, Jean. Honestly this change surprised me. Assuming DVC continues to monitor things, it wouldn't surprise me if they had to undo just a bit of this in a few years (raise weekends a bit while lowering weekdays.)

The new allocation has boyh helped and hurt me. My BWV bw view was increased but since I usually include either a Sat or Fri night, I only realize a small loss. Now if I can find that "quiet" DVC resort I might stay a full week , then I stand to benefit. I took a hit with my BLT but will just alternate standard/ lake view stays. So not too much damage this go around.

 

[wdrl]

Shamus noticed that I was off by one day in my count of Dream season days for 2010. I corrected my chart in my Post #434. See http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=35102340&postcount=434. Even with this correction, the difference in VWL's total points between 2010 and 2011 is only 0.129%, which I believe still shows that the reallocation has a neutral impact on VWL.

 

[wdrl]

As I did with VWL, I computed the impact of the 2011 point reallocation on the total points for BWV. Shamus supplied the number of accommodations by view category, which corresponds with the number of accommodations shown on the dvcnews.com website. As with VWL, the calculations assume that all two-bedroom villas, whether lockoffs or dedicated, are booked as two-bedroom accommodations.

The validity of this exercise rests on my assumption regarding the number and type of villas in each view category. As Chuck S so rightly points out in an earlier post, mislabeling a villa can distort the results of this exercise.

Unlike VWL, I do not know how many points have been allotted to BWV by DVD. Although its not essential to know this fact in comparing 2010 point total to 2011 point totals, it is helpful to know BWV's total points to make sure that my numbers are consistent and reliable.

The data shows that in 2010 it took 4,898,492 points to book the entire BWV resort for the entire calendar year. In 2011, it will take 4,892,022 points to book the entire resort. This is a reduction of 6,470 points, or 0.132%.

Based on this data, I believe that the 2011 point reallocation has had a neutral impact on BWV. There are many 5-day weekday stays have will go up over 10% in 2011. However, overall, there are reductions in other areas that makes the impact neutral for the entire resort.

Let me know if you have any questions.

 

[bookwormde]

TSMIII

Thanks for the info, I actially do need the number of each size by type for my algorithm. You also need to know how they counted lock offs. I can run the algorithm from all counted as 2brs to all counted as studio plus 1BR

It does not sound like anyone has a full accounting of Kidani so I am just going to take the count as of 9/9/09 and figure that balance are SV.

To be totally accurate you do have to know and use the base year, but if you run the same year with both charts you get a pretty good indication.

Thanks for all the help, it will probably be the weekend before I can formally run the AKV numbers (and print the AKV chart from the members site).

I am reasonably sure that a lot of points were “created” at AKV.

bookwormde

 

[Brian Noble]

I am reasonably sure that a lot of points were “created” at AKV.

Seeing as how that would violate Florida timeshare law, if you can prove it, you can pretty much name your price from Disney in a class action suit on behalf of the AKV owners.

However, because Disney doesn't like to write "name your price" checks, I'm guessing that points were not created. Just a hunch, though.

 

[Chuck S]

TSMIII

Thanks for the info, I actially do need the number of each size by type for my algorithm. You also need to know how they counted lock offs. I can run the algorithm from all counted as 2brs to all counted as studio plus 1BR

It does not sound like anyone has a full accounting of Kidani so I am just going to take the count as of 9/9/09 and figure that balance are SV.

To be totally accurate you do have to know and use the base year, but if you run the same year with both charts you get a pretty good indication.

Thanks for all the help, it will probably be the weekend before I can formally run the AKV numbers (and print the AKV chart from the members site).

I am reasonably sure that a lot of points were “created” at AKV.

bookwormde

Even one unit misclassified can throw of the math.

Lock-offs should be counted as two bedrooms, otherwise the resort would be "oversold." The only studios and one bedrooms counted should be dedicated units.

 

[bookwormde]

Chuck S

You are correct, but if the increase is as gross as I think it is 2-4% minor errors could not acount for that.

bookwormde

 

[Brian Noble]

Not totally related to this thread, but when Members book lockoff units separately, there is an inventory surplus that becomes unbookable: booking a 1BR and studio separately is generally significantly more expensive, point-wise, than booking the lockoff together, and those "extra" points can't be used to book anything else, leaving some inventory open. Who gets control over this inventory---does it go into breakage?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Thanks for that BWV info!!! Bookwormed, go for it. No one is perfect, not even the mouse!