DVC point balancing 2022 vs 2021

[we"reofftoneverland]

Point charts?

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Point charts?

 

[Chuck S]

Given that we're already able to book through April 2022, and soon May 2022, I doubt there will be a change in 2022, but likely for 2023. Can you imagine having to go back and rebook all the existing 2022 reservations and manually adjusting those points, undoing any borrowing that may been required, and/or refunding any current use year points. especially as short handed as they are at the moment.

 

[Marionnette]

Given that we're already able to book through April 2022, and soon May 2022, I doubt there will be a change in 2022, but likely for 2023. Can you imagine having to back and rebook all he existing 2022 reservations and manually adjusting those points, undoing any barrowing that may been required, and/or refunding any current use year points. especially as short handed as they are at the moment.

While I agree that it would be an accounting nightmare, it is a nightmare of their own making and DVC has an obligation to do right by their members. Having an "oops" year this year is still just plain wrong and should be corrected, not swept under the rug with promise that things will be adjusted next year.

 

[Heather07438]

I could be wrong but my understanding of what I<3riviera laid was not only did this year have a significant excess of points created, it was due to the Easter factor and picking the worst base year against members’ interest out of all possibilities, where the calendar would continue to create the most excess points year after year instead of the least amount (or somewhere in the middle).

Do they need to adjust more than just the seasons so things don’t continue to be questionable going into future years?

Eta- iirc it was shown that only 2023 and 2035 would not be bad but the rest of the years would.

 

[Tiggerette]

I could be wrong but my understanding of what I<3riviera laid was not only did this year have a significant excess of points created, it was due to the Easter factor and picking the worst base year against members’ interest out of all possibilities, where the calendar would continue to create the most excess points year after year instead of the least amount (or somewhere in the middle).

Do they need to adjust more than just the seasons so things don’t continue to be questionable going into future years?

Eta- iirc it was shown that only 2023 and 2035 would not be bad but the rest of the years would.

Correct. As I understand the issues, in the very short term and according to the posted prior analysis, 2023 will appear to "self-adjust" down. But, it doesn't eliminate the long-term problem for the ensuing years that will continue to inflate the points according to the base year calculation. Therefore, looking to next year as evidence of change will be extremely short-sighted. The same argument "look how the charts have changed for the better," cannot also be applied for 2024 and all other years until 2035. The base year (fundamental calculation) and choice of Easter/Year must be adjusted in order to see a return to previous levels of points required to reserve.

 

[dismedvc]

Eta- iirc it was shown that only 2023 and 2035 would not be bad but the rest of the years would.

I believe it is actually only 2035 and 2046 that would not have excess points.
Now that @i<3riviera has deleted all his analysis, I think the clearest way to see the impact is to look at the attachment to the first post in this thread. That attachment shows an increase of 170,994 points across all resorts when comparing the 2021 and 2022 point charts. If members were to purchase those 170,994 points as OTU points at $19 per OTU point, that would be roughly $3.25 million dollars. Multiply that by 20 years, the minimum remaining life for any DVC resort, that would be about $65 million dollars.
The impact of the point inflation over the remaining life of all the DVC resorts would be more than $3.25 million in some years and less in others, and most DVC resorts have remaining lives of more than 20 years, but the above calculations give a rough idea of the additional cost to members/revenue to Disney if DVC keeps using its current 2022 points chart methodology.
Note: @i<3riviera had posted a detailed chart factoring in the excess points for every year and the differing remaining lives of the WDW DVC resorts, and came up with a total increased cost to members of $72 million if they purchased the excess points as OTU points at $19 per OTU point. I downloaded and saved that chart for myself, but the moderators have asked I not repost it without permission from @i<3riviera, since he/she decide to delete all of their posts.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Given that we're already able to book through April 2022, and soon May 2022, I doubt there will be a change in 2022, but likely for 2023. Can you imagine having to go back and rebook all the existing 2022 reservations and manually adjusting those points, undoing any borrowing that may been required, and/or refunding any current use year points. especially as short handed as they are at the moment.

It would not be changing the charts for what has already been booked but instead for later in the year. Really since the charts they released violate the POS they can't just decide to wait until next year. Each years charts stand on their own and it needs to be dealt with. The questions were being asked even before booking began for that calendar year and they had time to correct it before it got to this point. It's messy for certain but they can't just say "oops, well we'll get it right next year".

However of course they did not release any official statement they would be changing them.

 

[Tiggerette]

I believe it was actually only 2035 and 2046 that would not have excess points.

Maybe my memory is off, but I could swear there was a mitigating effect in 2023. I recall thinking this was an argument that DVCM was using in the conversations with some members who posted here. (ie; wait till 2023, it won't be that bad next year....) I recall thinking how convenient that argument is right now, but really is not useful later. However, when the 2024 charts come out, we will have had two full years with this particular base year calculation. Perhaps by then owners will simply acquiesce to the "new normal" by DVCM interpretation- ownership dilution/ greater points required for stay, etc.

 

[dismedvc]

Maybe my memory is off, but I could swear there was a mitigating effect in 2023. I recall thinking this was an argument that DVCM was using in the conversations with some members who posted here. (ie; wait till 2023, it won't be that bad next year....) I recall thinking how convenient that argument is right now, but really is not useful later. However, when the 2024 charts come out, we will have had two full years with this particular base year calculation. Perhaps by then owners will simply acquiesce to the "new normal" by DVCM interpretation- ownership dilution/ greater points required for stay, etc.

You are correct that under the current methodology 2023 would go down from 2022, but 2023 would still be higher than 2021, and far higher than it would have been if the 5 season point charts had been maintained.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Can you imagine having to back and rebook all he existing 2022 reservations and manually adjusting those points, undoing any barrowing that may been required, and/or refunding any current use year points.

Yes, I can imagine that.

 

[dismedvc]

Looking more closely at the attachment to the 1st post in this thread. Points at the four non-WDW DVC's actually went down by 34,985 points between 2021 and 2022. Since the total increase for all DVC resorts between the two years is 170,994 points that means the WDW DVC resorts went up by 205,979 points.
Interestingly for those non-WDW resorts, HH, AUL, and VGF all kept their 4 season point charts, and VB kept its 5 season point chart.

 

[bobbiwoz]

I was under the impression that it would be the second half of the year that had the point changes.

I hope there’s public outrage if they do not follow through, and not just from 24 Members.

 

[dismedvc]

However, when the 2024 charts come out, we will have had two full years with this particular base year calculation.

Under the current methodology points in 2024 will go down from 2023, but still be higher than 2021.
The net impact over the 3 years is therefore: Big spike in 2022, a reduction in 2023, a further reduction in 2024 (although all 3 years are still higher than 2021)
2025 will then spike back up to very close to 2022. This pattern then repeats itself until the expiration of the resorts.

 

[SL6827]

Well regardless of whether Disney does get around to revising the 2022 point charts or not, this and the previous attempt was nothing more than an attemp to pad their wallets even more. And those attempts will continue in the years to come. How, who knows? Maybe they will go down another route, but it will be one they will most certainly travel.

It is sad that Disney has come to this with their timeshare program. It just makes me have a sense of "what won't they do or try next?" I know that you have to have some amount of trust with a timeshare program, especially with the dues in play, and I have always had the amount of dues owed in the back of mind in regards to honesty. DCV owners, just keep your eyes peeled in the years to come.

 

[dismedvc]

Yes 2023 will be lower than 2022, but as shown in the chart below

I posted this as post #511 click on the up arrow to be taken to that post and see the chart.
Since this information still exists in this thread, I feel comfortable referencing it here

ETA: You might not notice the 2023 data point in the chart. It is the small "kink" in the line between 2022 and 2024

 

[Chuck S]

It would not be changing the charts for what has already been booked but instead for later in the year. Really since the charts they released violate the POS they can't just decide to wait until next year. Each years charts stand on their own and it needs to be dealt with. The questions were being asked even before booking began for that calendar year and they had time to correct it before it got to this point. It's messy for certain but they can't just say "oops, well we'll get it right next year".

However of course they did not release any official statement they would be changing them.

Really, so even if your already booked, or have already stayed, and then the charts change in your favor, too bad soo sad? I see lawsuits with that one.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Really, so even if your already booked, or have already stayed, and then the charts change in your favor, too bad soo sad? I see lawsuits with that one.

They wouldn't be changing the point requirements for times that are already booked (Jan-April 17th as of today) so what is booked would still be the points required per the charts. Where the potential changes would come is for 2022 would potentially be late spring or summer of 2022 or else the fall which owners are not yet able to book.

 

[Heather07438]

I think it is worth keeping an eye on. It seems there has been an overall shift away from respecting the spirit of the ground rules.

Another thing that has caught my attention and was also mentioned in passing by other posters is seeing a specific weekday fully booked for a month in a certain resort room category where most of the rest of that month shows availability. The most recent mention was Thursdays all booked but I’ve also noticed all Tuesday’s booked in one of the Epcot resorts and all Wednesdays in an MK resort. I’m going to start snapshotting when I come across. I paid attention because it might be a clue to park demand patterns but has since got my curiosity around breakage forecasting. There has been talk about the cash side of WDW blocking certain small reservations to leave availability for longer stays and ones that do not leave dangling less desirable days. Is this strategy being used in DVC breakage forecasting as well, where they try to block certain patterns to take advantage of more breakage resulting? I think there needs to be more transparency around breakage as questionable things have been happening more frequently there as well. Many conversations have been posted about days mysteriously booked just beyond the 11 month window too.

DVC has so far proved good management where contract values are concerned; my intention is definitely not to bash them as they’ve been doing well for members all these years to provide a satisfying worthwhile experience*. My concern is more about the direction it is going. Are we just beginning to see a shift in fundamental changes that could negatively impact the membership? Could it be the start of decline from DVC’s peak?

eta- *clarified to group complete thought

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

DVC has so far proved good management where contract values are concerned. My intention is definitely not to bash them as they’ve been doing well for members all these years. My concern is more about the direction it is going. Are we just beginning to see a shift in fundamental changes that could negatively impact the membership? Could it be the start of decline from DVC’s peak?

Honestly, DVC has no duty nor concern of managing contract values. It's a happy fluke for owners because of the location and continued popularity of the theme parks. If the theme parks shut down or people lost interest know that the value would plummet in a heart beat.