DVC point balancing 2022 vs 2021

[CarolMN]

I'd look for non-malicious motives.

Hanlon’s Razor, perhaps? From WikipediA:

Hanlon's razor is a saying that reads:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

In simpler words: some bad things happen not because of people having bad intentions, but because they did not think it through properly.

 

[Minniemoo15]

Hanlon’s Razor, perhaps? From WikipediA:

Hanlon's razor is a saying that reads:


In simpler words: some bad things happen not because of people having bad intentions, but because they did not think it through properly.

Yes my initial thought is that this wasn’t done necessarily with bad intentions, but a mistake was made somewhere and should be rectified. I’m sure COVID has stretched staff even thinner than usual and perhaps people are having to take on roles that typically aren’t theirs. Just a thought.

 

[havoc315]

Part of the reason DVC is supposed to maintain points is for maintenance. That was already considered in the setup of the system and is I believe a requirement of FL timeshares but am not positive.

Yes.... my point is, those calculations might have to get fine tuned over time. They are based on assumptions and projections of room downtime.

 

[Cabius]

Yes.... my point is, those calculations might have to get fine tuned over time. They are based on assumptions and projections of room downtime.

I think KAT4DISNEY is saying that when rooms go down for maintenance, etc., those rooms are actually "booked" and paid for out of the points that DVC holds. They are booked for maintenance instead of booked for guest use, but points are allocated for that room for that day -- and those points can't then be used to book elsewhere.

If maintenance needs go up, then DVC would need to control more points directly to "pay" to take those rooms out of inventory, but they would not dilute the value of our ownership shares.

Not sure if that applies for the period major renovations -- I'm new to this whole thing.

 

[SL6827]

Did any of the other resorts have a big uptick in points like the Poly?

 

[havoc315]

I think KAT4DISNEY is saying that when rooms go down for maintenance, etc., those rooms are actually "booked" and paid for out of the points that DVC holds. They are booked for maintenance instead of booked for guest use, but points are allocated for that room for that day -- and those points can't then be used to book elsewhere.

If maintenance needs go up, then DVC would need to control more points directly to "pay" to take those rooms out of inventory, but they would not dilute the value of our ownership shares.

Not sure if that applies for the period major renovations -- I'm new to this whole thing.

Correct, they are booked out of points that Disney "holds" -- Because there are more points in the chart than they sell. But if maintenance needs go up, and DVC therefore needs to control more points -- Where do those points come from? By adding points to the point chart! Magically, there are now more points! (Let's say they sell 1 million points, and the point chart (when lockoffs are broken apart) has 1,050,000 points... Disney has 50,000 points worth of non-use to do room maintenance, etc. If they increase the point chart (easiest way to do it is to increase the lockoff premium but that doesn't work at PBV).. so increase the point chart to 1,070,000 points... you now have 20,000 more points of non-use.
It doesn't dilute member ownership -- You still own 00.0021% of the resort, of the available rooms, etc. But the resort basically got a tiny bit smaller, a few use-days removed for more maintenance. We can argue about whether that actually does dilute your membership. I'd argue that it doesn't dilute your membership as you're theoretically benefiting from the improved maintenance.

 

[havoc315]

Did any of the other resorts have a big uptick in points like the Poly?

People are noticing it more with Poly because they don't have lockoffs, only studios. Easier to hide in other resorts -- They may keep 2 bedrooms and studios the same, while they appear to constantly push the increase into the one bedrooms.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

summary ...

base year analysis was straightforward from 2008 to 2020 (possibly prior but can't find charts) and was done faithfully by DVCM (even during complicated changes like at SSR); 2021 base year analysis by DVCM had two errors but they didn't negatively affect the overall point chart or create points out of nowhere​

​

2022 DVCM appears to be manipulating the base year analysis around gregorian easter (g.e.) to generate point charts that require more points to book than there are declared / sold​

• DVCM still follows the letter of the contract whereby there is a base year where declared points = base year points
• the base year picked is a farce (same base year for all 11x Walt Disney World DVC resorts in 2022 base year analysis)
  • 1 Jan base year = Mon (fine no problem there)
  • gregorian easter falls on the 1st of five possible sun (in 2022 g.e. falls on 4th of five); the creates points out of nowhere
• while following the letter of the contract, the intent does not seem to be; base year analysis is for the best interests of DVC owners (point charts can't be overly manipulated) but by choosing the worst option when given five choices, it doesn't seem the best interests are being considered

base year

1. abstract year (not 1991, 1992, 2017, etc.)
2. lock-offs counted as two bedrooms only
3. pick what day 1 Jan is (7x choices, Sun through Sat)
4. ensure three prime US thanksgiving days are Wed through Fri (may require shifting depending on #2 above); except 2021 because the base year calculation was messed-up by DVCM
5. 2020 and prior, ignore gregorian easter (g.e.)
   • 14x prime spring break days (always 10x Sun-Thu + 4x Fri/Sat)
   • period around prime spring break was one season (16 Feb to 30 Apr)
6. 2021+ g.e. matters
   • can be one of 5x sun for each base year (7x 1 Jan choices * 5x g.e. choices = 35x combinations)
   • reduced to 8x prime spring break days (need to adjust so always 6x Sun-Thu + 2x Fri/Sat)
   • 6x formerly prime spring break days moved down a season (4x Sun-Thu + 2x Fri/Sat)
   • g.e. +7x days moved down a seaons; period of 16 Feb to 30 Apr no longer the same season
   • 2021 gregorian easter for base year was set to actual 2021 date of 4 Apr (this was an oversight by DVCM, similar to not adjusting US thanksgiving but had no negative effect on the point chart)
   • 2022 gregorian easter was chosen to be the first possible Sun in base year analysis
     • the negatively affects the point chart by artificially adding lower point cost days from period e in place of period f (see red in chart below)
     • allows DVCM to increase point chart cost per day because this assumption of g.e. being the first Sun (why all the point charts are higher than they should be)
     • a reasonable / fair assumption would have been 3rd of 5x choices for g.e. Sun; middle of the road point chart
     • this shows DVCM may be taking advantage of a confusing point chart to inflate points
     • overall the issue isn't the additional points (it's <1%) but the fact that given five options, DVCM seems to have picked the one that impacted DVC owners most negatively

here are the point chart changes over time; black is period moved from one season to another, yellow outlined is where period moved from; left hand period is based on mapping 2020 and prior point charts to 2021+; period' are actual point chart periods
View attachment 546711

2008 to 2022 base year analysis showing DVCM used to know how to do it correctly without trying to manipulate more points; boxes are the base year picked for each point chart
View attachment 546721

View attachment 546720

SSR complete analysis including by unit points and non-base year totals
View attachment 546725

I have the analysis for the 10 other Walt Disney World DVC properties; all are similar to SSR where they were flawless until 2020, 2021 was a minor error, and 2022 had magically created points

This is awesome. Did you do this? If so, where did you find the data? It is just point charts added up for every day? I hope you do not mind if I ask questions. What do you mean by e.g. sun? And what do you mean by Gregorian Easter? You just mean our regular Easter, right? And what do you mean by base year? Thanks

 

[Minniemoo15]

summary ...

base year analysis was straightforward from 2008 to 2020 (possibly prior but can't find charts) and was done faithfully by DVCM (even during complicated changes like at SSR); 2021 base year analysis by DVCM had two errors but they didn't negatively affect the overall point chart or create points out of nowhere​

​

2022 DVCM appears to be manipulating the base year analysis around gregorian easter (g.e.) to generate point charts that require more points to book than there are declared / sold​

• DVCM still follows the letter of the contract whereby there is a base year where declared points = base year points
• the base year picked is a farce (same base year for all 11x Walt Disney World DVC resorts in 2022 base year analysis)
  • 1 Jan base year = Mon (fine no problem there)
  • gregorian easter falls on the 1st of five possible Sun (in 2022 g.e. falls on 4th of five); the creates points out of nowhere
• while following the letter of the contract, the intent does not seem to be; base year analysis is for the best interests of DVC owners (point charts can't be overly manipulated) but by choosing the worst option when given five choices, it doesn't seem the best interests are being considered

base year

1. abstract year (not 1991, 1992, 2017, etc.)
2. lock-offs counted as two bedrooms only
3. pick what day 1 Jan is (7x choices, Sun through Sat)
4. ensure three prime US thanksgiving days are Wed through Fri (may require shifting depending on #2 above); except 2021 because the base year calculation was messed-up by DVCM
5. 2020 and prior, ignore gregorian easter (g.e.)
   • 14x prime spring break days (always 10x Sun-Thu + 4x Fri/Sat)
   • period around prime spring break was one season (16 Feb to 30 Apr)
6. 2021+ g.e. matters
   • can be one of 5x sun for each base year (7x 1 Jan choices * 5x g.e. choices = 35x combinations)
   • reduced to 8x prime spring break days (need to adjust so always 6x Sun-Thu + 2x Fri/Sat)
   • 6x formerly prime spring break days moved down a season (4x Sun-Thu + 2x Fri/Sat)
   • g.e. +7x days moved down a seaons; period of 16 Feb to 30 Apr no longer the same season
   • 2021 gregorian easter for base year was set to actual 2021 date of 4 Apr (this was an oversight by DVCM, similar to not adjusting US thanksgiving but had no negative effect on the point chart)
   • 2022 gregorian easter was chosen to be the first possible Sun in base year analysis
     • the negatively affects the point chart by artificially adding lower point cost days from period e in place of period f (see red in chart below)
     • allows DVCM to increase point chart cost per day because this assumption of g.e. being the first Sun (why all the point charts are higher than they should be)
     • a reasonable / fair assumption would have been 3rd of 5x choices for g.e. Sun; middle of the road point chart
     • this shows DVCM may be taking advantage of a confusing point chart to inflate points
     • overall the issue isn't the additional points (it's <1%) but the fact that given five options, DVCM seems to have picked the one that impacted DVC owners most negatively

here are the point chart changes over time; black is period moved from one season to another, yellow outlined is where period moved from; left hand period is based on mapping 2020 and prior point charts to 2021+; period' are actual point chart periods
View attachment 546711

2008 to 2022 base year analysis showing DVCM used to know how to do this agnostically; boxes are the base year picked for each point chart
View attachment 546721

View attachment 546720

SSR non-base year annual points by unit and totals
View attachment 546725

I have the analysis for the 10 other Walt Disney World DVC properties; all are similar to SSR where they were flawless until 2020, 2021 was a minor error, and 2022 had magically created points

That is a fantastic analysis - thank you so much. They kept mentioning Easter in the phone call so I feel this may be the missing clue. Am I correct in that this may have affected PVB disproportionately ? On one of your previous analysis it showed PVBs point chart increasing by a greater percentage than the other resorts. Maybe that’s why the increases seem more glaring there.
Thank you again - this is a lot of work on your part but makes a lot more sense to me than anything else I have researched.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[Cabius]

Lakeview going to standard view still wouldn't change point totals and with the #of existing standard view vs # of lakeview it wouldn't hardly nudge the needle for a change in a standard view week. Also, DVC has always noted when they've moved rooms out of a certain view which was not done for Poly so I don't think that's a part of it.

It they moved 13 Lakeview rooms to Standard, it would balance out the PVB point chart at 4,034,500 -- but I didn't realize that sort of reclassification is typically something that is disclosed.

	Points/Year	Rooms	Total/Year	Adj. Rooms	Adj. Total/Year
Standard	7,976	288	2,297,088	301 (+13)​	2,400,776
Lagoon	9,476	72	682,272	59 (-13)​	559,084
Bungalow	53,732	20	1,074,640	20​	1,074,640
Total	71,184	380	4,054,000	380​	4,034,500

 

[Minniemoo15]

It they moved 13 Lakeview rooms to Standard, it would balance out the PVB point chart at 4,034,500 -- but I didn't realize that sort of reclassification is typically something that is disclosed.

	Points/Year	Rooms	Total/Year	Adj. Rooms	Adj. Total/Year
Standard	7,976	288	2,297,088	301 (+13)​	2,400,776
Lagoon	9,476	72	682,272	59 (-13)​	559,084
Bungalow	53,732	20	1,074,640	20​	1,074,640
Total	71,184	380	4,054,000	380​	4,034,500

I understand now... that makes sense. Thanks!

 

[Cabius]

I understand now... that makes sense. Thanks!

To be clear: I am not saying that's what they did!

But it would be one possibility if the exact mix of rooms classified to each view can be changed w/o disclosure.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It they moved 13 Lakeview rooms to Standard, it would balance out the PVB point chart at 4,034,500 -- but I didn't realize that sort of reclassification is typically something that is disclosed.

	Points/Year	Rooms	Total/Year	Adj. Rooms	Adj. Total/Year
Standard	7,976	288	2,297,088	301 (+13)​	2,400,776
Lagoon	9,476	72	682,272	59 (-13)​	559,084
Bungalow	53,732	20	1,074,640	20​	1,074,640
Total	71,184	380	4,054,000	380​	4,034,500

They always have disclosed as far as I'm aware but of course that doesn't mean that couldn't have skipped that part. Kind of a biggie for PVB owners though or any resort owners if/when it happens and should be disclosed. They announced it for BLT, AKV, SSR and even OKW but a whole new booking category would have been noticed anyway. Another thing with PVB is the fixed weeks which are limited to a percentage of the available villas on a per week basis. In most cases I believe only weeks 47 & 48 start to get close to the limit they can sell but might possibly prevent them from any view reallocations.

 

[Sandisw]

It they moved 13 Lakeview rooms to Standard, it would balance out the PVB point chart at 4,034,500 -- but I didn't realize that sort of reclassification is typically something that is disclosed.

	Points/Year	Rooms	Total/Year	Adj. Rooms	Adj. Total/Year
Standard	7,976	288	2,297,088	301 (+13)​	2,400,776
Lagoon	9,476	72	682,272	59 (-13)​	559,084
Bungalow	53,732	20	1,074,640	20​	1,074,640
Total	71,184	380	4,054,000	380​	4,034,500

I did notice with PVB that those rooms are actually defined in the POS..how many are LV and SV.

Not all are done that way. RIV and BLT do not have them broken down, for example, so I think with those resorts you have play on which rooms are what..even though as mentioned those types of changes have always been disclosed.

PVB would be a change from POS so I don’t think they could do that without a notification for sure.

 

[CarolynFH]

Regarding changing room view classification with or without notification - several years ago (way earlier than 2020) wasn't there a discrepancy at BWV questioned by someone here, who was told that it was due to Village Green view studios and 1-BR being reclassified from BW view to G/P view? That wouldn't affect the overall total number of points, because BW view and G/P view cost the same, but it would make it look like total points for BW view changed in one direction and total points for G/P view changed in the other direction that year. That reclassification was certainly not announced.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Regarding changing room view classification with or without notification - several years ago (way earlier than 2020) wasn't there a discrepancy at BWV questioned by someone here, who was told that it was due to Village Green view studios and 1-BR being reclassified from BW view to G/P view? That wouldn't affect the overall total number of points, because BW view and G/P view cost the same, but it would make it look like total points for BW view changed in one direction and total points for G/P view changed in the other direction that year. That reclassification was certainly not announced.

There's no publications of point totals for views and since the point requirements are identical it only would have shown up in inventory of Boardwalk view studios suddenly becoming much more difficult to book. That would have had to have been long ago as Village green as been p/g view for as long as I've known. I had not ever heard that it changed though.

 

[Leight19]

summary ...

base year analysis was straightforward from 2008 to 2020 (possibly prior but can't find charts) and was done faithfully by DVCM (even during complicated changes like at SSR); 2021 base year analysis by DVCM had two errors but they didn't negatively affect the overall point chart or create points out of nowhere​

​

2022 DVCM appears to be manipulating the base year analysis around gregorian easter (g.e.) to generate point charts that require more points to book than there are declared / sold​

• DVCM still follows the letter of the contract whereby there is a base year where declared points = base year points
• the base year picked is a farce (same base year for all 11x Walt Disney World DVC resorts in 2022 base year analysis)
  • 1 Jan base year = Mon (fine no problem there)
  • gregorian easter falls on the 1st of five possible Sun (in 2022 g.e. falls on 4th of five); this creates points out of nowhere
• DVCM seems to be following the letter of the contract but not the intent; base year analysis is for the best interests of DVC owners (point charts can't be overly manipulated); by choosing the least optimal option when given five choices, it doesn't seem the best interests of DVC owners are being considered

base year

1. abstract year (not 1991, 1992, 2017, etc.)
2. lock-offs counted as two bedrooms only
3. pick what day 1 Jan is (7x choices, Sun through Sat)
4. ensure three prime US thanksgiving days are Wed through Fri (may require shifting depending on #2 above); except 2021 because the base year calculation was messed-up by DVCM
5. 2020 and prior, ignore gregorian easter (g.e.)
   • 14x prime spring break days (always 10x Sun-Thu + 4x Fri/Sat)
   • period around prime spring break was one season (16 Feb to 30 Apr)
6. 2021+ g.e. matters
   • can be one of 5x sun for each base year (7x 1 Jan choices * 5x g.e. choices = 35x combinations)
   • reduced to 8x prime spring break days (need to adjust so always 6x Sun-Thu + 2x Fri/Sat)
   • 6x formerly prime spring break days moved down a season (4x Sun-Thu + 2x Fri/Sat)
   • g.e. +7x days moved down a seaons; period of 16 Feb to 30 Apr no longer the same season
   • 2021 gregorian easter for base year was set to actual 2021 date of 4 Apr (this was an oversight by DVCM, similar to not adjusting US thanksgiving but had no negative effect on the point chart)
   • 2022 gregorian easter was chosen to be the first possible Sun in base year analysis
     • the negatively affects the point chart by artificially adding lower point cost days from period e in place of period f (see red in chart below)
     • allows DVCM to increase point chart cost per day elsewhere (why all the point charts are higher than they should be)
     • a reasonable / fair assumption would have been 3rd of 5x choices for g.e. Sun; middle of the road point chart
     • this shows DVCM may be taking advantage of a confusing point chart to inflate points
     • overall the issue isn't the additional points (it's <1%) but the fact that given five options, DVCM seems to have picked the one that impacted DVC owners most negatively

here are the point chart changes over time; black is period moved from one season to another, yellow outlined is where period moved from; left hand period is based on mapping 2020 and prior point charts to 2021+; period' are actual point chart periods
View attachment 546711

SSR
View attachment 546721

View attachment 546720

View attachment 546725

RVA
View attachment 546744

View attachment 546745

View attachment 546746

VGF
View attachment 546747

View attachment 546748

View attachment 546749

I'll add the other resorts below; all are similar to SSR, RVA, and VGF where they were flawless until 2020, 2021 was a minor error, and 2022 had magically created points

thanks to @tjkraz for the 2008+ point charts!
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-85142/points-charts-29677/dvc-resorts-8689
thanks to @Micah008 for the room counts!
https://easywdwforums.com/threads/dvc-rooms-charts-with-detailed-room-info.20457/

This is a lot of information and hard for me to get exact conclusion but are you finding across boards there are more points in system now then declared across multiple resorts? If so is it all around the 0.5% and if so is there legal way they are doing this and future years will revert to original points or is it something we should be challenging as dvc making up points for profit?