DrTomorrow said:
Dear Beca,
Do you have any proof that there really are "many" DVC owners that are upset, and that a "lot" of current members are actually in a "panic"? Keep in mind that there are now 90,000+ DVC members, and that the few dozen here on the DVC forum - despite their consistant drumbeats - do NOT represent any meaningful subset of DVC owners.
If you have heard real, hard & factual information - from a Guide, or an in.the.know CM, or some other insider - please, share it with us! If not, your speculations are quite interesting.
As for SSR sales, I too am of the understanding that they are currently selling something that people can't even use yet (nice trick!) so the one-time 100 points is an incentive - just like the incentive I took advantage of when I bought in before I could stay there.
Be well!
I am basing my speculation that owners are "upset" only on the inferences from my guide that in the last few months the waitlists at the the smaller resorts have "exploded". I know that a year ago, when SSR was only 500+ units, I was considering adding on, my guide told me that I could get an add-on at any of the resorts within a couple of weeks to a month. When I got on the waitlist for BCV in Dec, he told me I would have a MINIMUM wait of eight months to one year. Then, when I called a few weeks ago to change my request, he implied that I was "going nowhere fast" on the waitlist. At this point, my guide did express to me that DVC was concerned about the length of the BCV waitlist. He said that DVC has always told members that if they needed more points, they could add on via DVC. But, with the length of the BCV waitlist, there may actually be people on the list that never get their points via DVC. It made me think that BCV is just selling too high on the resale market for any substantial number of points to be returned to DVC's system....like the "deficit" of BCV points is getting bigger everyday instead of smaller (which it obviously is if the the waitlist had gone from "a few weeks" to "8 months to a year minimum"). He said DVC does not like to keep people waiting too long on waitlists for points....that it results in poor "member satisfaction".
Do I have "facts" that owners are upset? Do I have "proof" that owners are upset over the increase in the size of SSR? No....but, really....if "newbies" are not on the disboards (like you said...a relatively small percent of DVC owners are on the boards), do you think they REALLY know that you can get on a waitlist for sold-out resorts? I have repeatedly told new people on these boards that they can do that, and their response is usually..."Really? Why didn't my guide tell me that?" So, if the waitlists have gone from "relatively small" to "massive", and if most initial buyers do not know about the waitlist as an option for purchase...who made that "small" waitlist into a substantial one between my first inquiry (March) and my placement on that list (Dec)?....my guess (and yes, it is only my speculation) is that it is owners who are concerned about needing more points at BCV (I am only using BCV as an example because that is the waitlist I am on). Now, why would they need more points? People having more babies? People making more money and just needing a place to spend it? Families wanting to go to Disney more and more? Probably all of those reasons. But, I can say for me....those are NONE of the reasons...I have not had more children in the last year....I do not have a large amount of cash that I am just looking for a place to spend it...I did not get more vacation time this year and am considering another trip per year to WDW. I simply am concerned that with the size of SSR, and with the sheer number of people that might be trying to switch into BCV at the seven month window, with the time that it is taking to acquire those points, and with the fact that BCV has gone up CONSIDERABLY in one year (resales, when you figure in closing costs are now costing more than SSR when you factor in incentives), that if I want points....I'd better get on the list now, and start looking for resales. Maybe I am the ONLY person on that subtantial waitlist who is concerned for the above reasons....but, I KNOW there are others on this board who think along the same lines. Now, maybe we are the ONLY ones on BCV's substantial waitlist who are on there for the above mentioned reasons....maybe everyone else has come into unexpected monies, received additional weeks of vacation time that they desperately want to spend at BCV, or had additional babies....but, somehow I doubt it.
Am I speculating based upon a combination of the wealth of information found on these boards and the conversations I have had with my guide....SURE!!!! But, isn't that what the OP asked when they "speculated" that the offering was a sign of "stalled sales". My answer...I don't think sales in general are stalled, just the sales to current members (when you compare them to the number of current members on waitlists for sold out resorts). However, I think my theories can be supported by the fact that this GREAT add-on deal is only being offered to current members. This is MUCH better than any deal I have seen offered in the past year (the same year that the waitlist has grown to be so big), and much better than the deal they are offering to "initial buyers". And, others must feel that it is a wonderful deal, too...as I have read threads where many disers have found it "too good to pass up".
I have also seen SO many posts where SSR owners say they are made to feel like "the stepchildren" of DVC....the unwanted ones. I think most of these people feel this way because of the many threads where people have expressed just such concern. Now, maybe the BCV waitlist is just full of disboard'ers and no one else....that is a possibility....but, then there must be a LOT of disboarders who are concerned about this as well.
Now, I am using "concerned" and "upset" interchangeably...are they? I don't know. But, I will tell you this. When the increase to SSR was announced last May, I had JUST closed on my BWV contract two months before. One of the things that "sold" me on DVC was that, with the exception of OKW (which has it's own charm and clear advantages....lower points, bigger rooms), the other resorts seemed to be "balanced" from a size perspective. Now, I assumed (obviously incorrectly) that DVC recognized a need for this, and planned to keep all resorts of a similar size (OKW being the exception because at the time of its conception....no other destinations were yet envisioned). I felt "betrayed" by DVC when the increase to SSR was announced. I did feel the size differential between the biggest and the smallest resort (one being 8 times larger than the other) was a departure from what they had set up in the past, and would negatively impact the variety of resorts which would be available at the 4, 5, and 6 month windows. And....I still do. SSR is not my "cup of tea", but I am not at all bothered that DVC would "dare" to build a resort I do not care for....I am, however bothered that they would build one to be so much larger than the others. I think it makes their "selling point" of "buy at one, but stay at any" somewhat of a lie. I think that, many times if you do not book within the 8-11 month window, your choice will be "Stay at SSR or SSR". Maybe I am wrong....and, I sure hope that I am, because I do not relish the thought of thinking that my DVC is something I must always plan a year in advance, or only have the choice of one resort (that I could've paid less money to own). But, my point is...I was "upset" the day I heard of the size increase...now, I am just "concerned"....and, those are my reasons for becoming a "BCV point collector". I want to know that I can get them.
One more thing....DVC may be selling "something they don't have yet" to intitial buyers, but it is my understanding (once again, speculation here from reading the threads) that anyone who has a 2004 UY that is still "in play" gets the points, minus the discount ($5 per point, I think), with no MF's for 2004 & 2005 (almost another $8 per point discount), the 100 "master contract" points, plus the 2004 and 2005 points. In order to offer the 2004 points, DVC would have to take these contracts being offered from the inventory they set aside for current members to purchase, as that is the ONLY inventory remaining that has 2004 points intact. Therefore, it makes me think that there are enough points that DVC PLANNED to sell to members, that remain unsold for them to make this great offer....which, once again makes me think that current members are adding on less at SSR than what DVC expected.
I have to interpret that when you asked me for "real, hard & factual information" from someone "in the know" that you doubt my speculations...that is SOO your right!! They are simply that....my speculations based on my experiences trying to get more points. If you don't agree with them...simply ignore them. They REALLY are just my opinion....and, in the big picture...who am I? I am sorry if my "speculations" somehow offended you. I am also sorry this is SOOO long....I just figured that, since you asked...I would explain.
Beca
I have to think this out.
. It does cut both ways, though; although SSR works well for DW and I - and I'd done my DIS DVC homework like a good little boy - I'm well aware of the fact that, unless I fire up Caskbill's Wonder-Planner and call day.by.day at 7 months, I don't have a great chance at staying at one of the smaller DVC resorts (one night at VWL next month!!!). Again, I knew this, but the Guides sure as heck market it this way: "Own at SSR? Want to spend a week in a 2BR NS room at VWL? In 2 months? No problem!".
. I just have what may be a stupid question, but here it goes. How does buying more bcv points help with future availability at that resort? We own BCV. My husband and I were thinking of an add on, but really (imo) do not care for SSR. In fact my husband really only wants to stay at BCV. Anyway we just thought we would wait to see what will be next..Contempoary?. Not holding my breath...we just figured we would wait. But, maybe we should get on that waiting list.
