DVC Expansions and Resort Price Increases

[BWV Dreamin]

With all the expected DVC expansions, CRV, GCV, and possibly now Hawaii, how do you think that might affect the current resort prices sold by Disney and the resale point prices by the other brokers? Would these new resort prices drive up the values of current resorts? Has there been any previous data to show how the resale market has done after a new DVC has opened? All comments welcome!

 

[salmoneous]

Resale prices for OKW went up a lot in the early years. Is this because Disney opened new resorts, or becuase the price for DVC went up a lot?

Resale prices for VWL/BWV really haven't moved that much ever. Now it could be that SSR and AKV influenced the price one way, while other factors moved it the other. We just don't know.

Resale prices for BCV went up, but seem to be slipping slightly. My gut feeling is BCV prices were affected by the same forces as VWL/BWV - whatever they were - but also had a supply/demand imbalance that caused the price to go up.

Relase prices for SSR haven't moved much - but the resort is new.

Short answer - there isn't much data, and what's there doesn't tell us much.

 

[Tinkerdreams]

I think as Disney expands its choices in DVC, I believe that the attraction will become more appealing to those that do not feel the current "trades" for II, World passport, etc. are worth the cost of points.

While new DVC (Hawaii) will be more in points, it probably won't be as much as the other choices that are offered now. I was looking at one of the Hawaii resorts and that is like 74 points per night (too many!!)

I believe that when CRV goes up for sale, I'm antipating the price to be much higher ($110/pt) and probably upped again for Hawaii. This affect would then trickle down to the resale market. Good news for those of us that already own IMHO!!

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I think as Disney expands its choices in DVC, I believe that the attraction will become more appealing to those that do not feel the current "trades" for II, World passport, etc. are worth the cost of points.

While new DVC (Hawaii) will be more in points, it probably won't be as much as the other choices that are offered now. I was looking at one of the Hawaii resorts and that is like 74 points per night (too many!!)

I believe that when CRV goes up for sale, I'm antipating the price to be much higher ($110/pt) and probably upped again for Hawaii. This affect would then trickle down to the resale market. Good news for those of us that already own IMHO!!

This is what I was also thinking. As the newer resorts command more price per point, I would think at least the higher demanding current resorts could command higher resale values. It would still be a bargain to get BWV/VWL at $90 per point when CRV may go for as high as $110. Just a theory.

 

[salmoneous]

Over the past year, the effective price for new DVC has gone from $83 to $96. Resale prices did not go up. Instead, the gap between new and resale widened.

Who knows what will happen if the effective price goes from $96 to $110. Will the new/resale gap widen more? How big a gap is sustainable? And if a larger gap isn't sustainable, will than mean resale prices will go up, or that Disney won't be able to raise their price to $110?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Interesting point. So comes into the play of whether to pay for the 15 yr. extension. This may be the vehicle which bridges the gap from declining 2042 resales. Using $85 per point for say Boardwalk, then one could speculate a futher decline to say $80 for 2042's, $90 for 2057's, and new resorts at $105+. These figures still could be low as we don't know how the market will drive the values. Pure speculation, but not improbable.

 

[jenntish]

so I need to know... have CRV and Hawaii been announced? I'm so confused. Are you speculating?

 

[Spine_DR]

nothing official on CRV and Hawii they are building something at the comtemp and most of us believe that some or all of it will be DVC villas. I think by the time they start selling points for CRV the price without incentives will be higher than 110 dvc prices have risen much faster than inflation.

 

[CPTJAK]

so I need to know... have CRV and Hawaii been announced? I'm so confused. Are you speculating?

Hawaii was announced to open in 2011. Being built next to Marriott on Ohau.