Doom And Gloom Thread

[gppnj]

I had a moment yesterday when I suddenly saw the forest for the trees, and it really scared me. Part of it relates to DVC. I'll explain.

Yesterday I went to book a flight to Orlando for an upcoming trip. The fare was almost double what it was when I booked the same flight less than a year ago. Obviously, the price increase relates to the higher cost of fuel.

I love Walt Disney World, but I also love Disneyland. When points for the Grand Californian Villas go on sale, I had been planning on buying some so I'd be able to have guaranteed stays there. But now I've reconsidered. For some reason, the prices for me to fly to California actually aren't that much worse than for me to fly to Orlando. However, with the explosive growth of China and India, the demand for oil isn't going to be decreasing, and the supply isn't going to be increasing. Therefore, the price is going to keep going up. How much longer will I be able to afford to fly to California? For that matter, how much longer will I be able to fly to Orlando? Within a few years, will air travel be only for the super rich?

I've got more than 30 years left on my VWL contracts. But I don't know for how many more years I'll be able to afford to travel to Florida. This is very disturbing, but I think it's real.

I wonder if Disney is thinking about all of this. I'd think that this could affect expansion plans. Why build more things if soon only locals will be able to get there? Is anyone else worried about this?

 

[ADP]

Its understandable to feel this way considering the economic conditions and the price of gas/jetfuel/diesel, etc. I think what you are saying makes a lot of sense. It is feasible for airfare to rise so much that many of us may have to cut back on our DVC trip or wait until every other year instead of each year.

You have to admit we've been pretty fortunate over the past 10 to 15 years with cheap airfare. I'd love to think it will continue forever, but that may not be realistic. I hope I'm wrong. Airfare like everything else will go up in price eventually.

I don't think Disney has thought too much about it. Considering MNSSH and MVMCP prices have increased to $56 Disney must think everything is just fine.

 

[bub]

I think the rapid increase in prices for everything right now is scaring most people.

One advantage for Disney with DVC members is that the cost of our hotel stay is mostly paid (outside of annual dues). That helps immensely when planning a vacation budget. It's also possible (I know some DVC members would not agree!) to cook most of your meals in the room, thus keeping food costs down. Souvenirs are optional, and many of us have figured out ways to amuse ourselves at WDW without constantly being in the parks. Transportation then becomes the primary unavoidable expense. Not sure how to get around this - I agree it is a concern, but it's not a dealbreaker - yet. (Though I have been wondering how my 2 teens would fit in the back of a Prius for our 2-day drive this summer, instead of in our 7-passenger minivan!)

 

[gppnj]

I've only been a member for a few years. I've been going down to WDW about twice a year, which I really like. One thing I think I'll be forced to do relatively soon is go once a year for a longer time rather than twice a year for shorter times. That way, at least I'm only paying for the flight once. But eventually, even one flight will become too expensive. That's when it really gets scary.

 

[BEASLYBOO]

I'm concerned, cautious, realistic and optomistic. Who knows whre we will be economically a year from now. Personally, for me no capital purchases this year. Wait it out and see if it turns around after the elections.

 

[salmoneous]

Air fare has been insanely cheap for a while now. Some of us have gotten spoiled - I know I have. I think nothing of quick weekend trips. I fly to Tampa to see the Sox play because it's cheaper than driving into Boston (I live in Mass).

I won't be happy if prices do skyrocket. But it won't keep me from going to WDW. I'll just make fewer, longer trips.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I just purchased airfare for our October and December trips.
We got el CHEAPO fares on Jet Blue.
Decemebr was $62 plus tax each way. October was a bit more. Incredible deal..

MG

 

[BroganMc]

Considering how much more expensive petrol is in Europe (that's why everyone uses mass transit or walks), I'm not worried yet. The weak American dollar has quashed my plans to return to London right away though. My 10 day trip last year cost me just under $5000 and that was with my hotel comp'd with Marriott points.

My 21 day trip to Disney last month cost me just under $2000. And that includes driving the 900 miles down and back. It's still a far cheaper vacation.

 

[DisFlan]

I've been trying to book air for September, and waiting for Allegiant to extend their schedule. The other airlines are SO high. If this continues into the future (which it probably will), I can see fewer trips to WDW, or much of anywhere else that's more than a day's drive.

I hate to face reality, but we're probably looking at WDW every 2 years rather than every year. But we'll have lots of banked points to use when we get there! If we don't go as often, we can stay loooonger - and use the kitchen more.

DisFlan

 

[granmanh603]

Don't want to rain on your doom and gloom but when I went to WDW in the early 1990 we considered ourselves lucky to get airfare for 120 each way, when we bought DVC in 2000 we were happy if we searched the web and got anything around 100 each way.....last Oct we got our cheapest fare ever 49 each way.....so yes this Oct we will not do as good as last year....but????

As for WDW prices , only my humble opinion...since Bob Iger has taken over the prices have been increasing constantly on everything , tickets (3X at least since he took over) food, parking and most recently on other boards the $17 to $27 increase in the double stroller fee!!!!! the DDP change...etc.Bottom line is most importan I don't think he cares on bit about WDW and whether or not you can get there or if families can afford it, which I think is what was Walt main idea. Again only my opinion, no arguement intended

 

[Chellymouse]

Appears that we need a change at the helm...Bob is going to be in hot water if he keeps it up! anyone remember Mike Eisner??
I know that my DBBF and I got air in Feb. for our Aug. trip and paid $250 a piece each way and DH and I are going in Dec. and air is running around $325 a piece. We have been spoiled with cheap flights and we're in the same thinking...if we can get the time off from our jobs, we may go for 12-13 days once a year instead of 2-3 times a year for shorter periods of time. We are also considering buying groceries and eating in the villa more often...we bought into DVC to save $$ overall and while so far we have (though we've only been members for a few months) if the prices at WDW continue to increase, we may not go as often or use our points elsewhere.

 

[Boardwalker]

I think there will be a change in many people's DVC use patterns.
Instead of several shorter trips, I will probably plan fewer trips, stay longer and use a bigger unit. But with banking and borrowing, everything should work out fine...

 

[nunzia]

Don't want to rain on your doom and gloom but when I went to WDW in the early 1990 we considered ourselves lucky to get airfare for 120 each way, when we bought DVC in 2000 we were happy if we searched the web and got anything around 100 each way.....last Oct we got our cheapest fare ever 49 each way.....so yes this Oct we will not do as good as last year....but????

As for WDW prices , only my humble opinion...since Bob Iger has taken over the prices have been increasing constantly on everything , tickets (3X at least since he took over) food, parking and most recently on other boards the $17 to $27 increase in the double stroller fee!!!!! the DDP change...etc.Bottom line is most importan I don't think he cares on bit about WDW and whether or not you can get there or if families can afford it, which I think is what was Walt main idea. Again only my opinion, no arguement intended

and yet, the parks are packed. I guess he is trying to see how far to push it..then again..deep discounts at 'slow' times makes sure there are NO slow times (free dining?? ugh. I know it's a boon for some, but I would think it would be horrible to be there then. Impossible to get a decent meal with all the resturants packed and chaotic all the time)
So it seems like 'regular' prices are going up, while 'special' prices are going down. Dangerous IMO..then no one wants to get ripped off by paying 'regular' prices. Like JC Penney having the BIGGEST SALE OF THE SEASON every week...

 

[tubtruck]

Typical flight to Orlando in the summer from the UK is about the equivelent of $1400 per peson economy and yet around 1 million make the journey every year, and some of even own DVC, note the UK boards on here. Our fuel costs are presently £1.10 per litre this equates to OVER NINE DOLLARS PER US GALLON !!!. We still are able to make the trip though probably explains why most English stay for long periods less frequently.

 

[Disneyhappy]

I was just thinking about this on my drive home from work when I heard another newscast about airfares will continue to increase because of fuel costs. We have been very fortunate and spoiled with getting roundtrip fares as low as $100. I usually feel $200 from PHL is a decent deal. I think by next year if the price of oil stays up as predicted, I will be paying more in the area of $300 per roundtrip. This will mean no more 4-5 trips per year to FL to visit WDW, UO or family. I don't necessarily want to stay more nights in one trip at WDW because I can't stand how crowded the parks are anymore which is why we no longer had APs but maintain our UO APs. I made a mental note to myself in the car to check out other options to use our points within a one day drive from Philadelphia. I am totally prepared to accept that our ability to fly inexpensively and frequently will shortly be a thing of the past.

As I typed the above, DH just told me as he was listening to the news that the DOW is at 13,000 points, oil prices are down and the dollar is getting stronger.... We can always hope!

 

[tubtruck]

You may have to get used to the idea of driving significantly smaller cars, by European standards even a Prius is a large car, probably around 3/4 of all cars on the roads are small hatchbacks like my mini cooper, it is pretty quick yet with a light foot can acheive in excess of 40 miles to the gallon. A lot of the small Europen diesel cars can acheive mileages of 60-70 to the gallon.
All the large American car manufactures make cars for the UK and European markets but they are totally different cars to those available in the US.

 

[Starr W.]

You may have to get used to the idea of driving significantly smaller cars, by European standards even a Prius is a large car, probably around 3/4 of all cars on the roads are small hatchbacks like my mini cooper, it is pretty quick yet with a light foot can acheive in excess of 40 miles to the gallon. A lot of the small Europen diesel cars can acheive mileages of 60-70 to the gallon.
All the large American car manufactures make cars for the UK and European markets but they are totally different cars to those available in the US.

The UK version of the Ford Focus is cool, the US version is not. Have no clue why they don't bring it over here, I think it would do well.

Yep I've been given Prius sized cars as full size when renting in Europe.

I had a MB diesel C class last time we had our wagon in. Wow, it was great and quiet(my dad had a loud 1991 S class diesel, much better mileage than the gas version).

 

[a Really Bad Egg]

As I typed the above, DH just told me as he was listening to the news that the DOW is at 13,000 points, oil prices are down and the dollar is getting stronger...

Why is it that just about when everybody is convinced the sky is falling, it doesn't.

 

[PEANUT1]

We got a flight for this weekend for under 200$ r/t and did the same thing for this October. It is only about 30$ more than when I went 2 years ago.

 

[bavaria]

I had a MB diesel C class last time we had our wagon in. Wow, it was great and quiet(my dad had a loud 1991 S class diesel, much better mileage than the gas version).

Entirely off topic, but I cannot stand the Mercedes A class diesel that I drive quite often. It gets terrible gas mileage compared to the VW diesel, and chugs along so loudly! A very bad, bad clown car

I invite those of you interested in airfare discussion to come visit the Transportation Board. We have some very lively and interesting discussions going on today about the future of airfare. (tubtruck, I am feeling like a lonely 'foreigner' over there bringing up the same points as you)

And I agree with DisFlan - it may mean that we revert to our parents' generation and take one large trip every year, or every other year, and anticipate it for months in advance and savour the memories for years afterwards. Back then, a flying vacation was really a luxury, instead of the commonplace it has become for so many, me included.