Do you wish there were no cabins at CCV? [Game Theory]

[sethschroeder]

First: Math (I will explain in more detail how I got my numbers and provide you access to the data directly with calculation)
Second: This discussion is specifically about a "Cabin" vs "No Cabin" resort and what it does to .

Preface:
Copper Creek is known already 3 years in to opening as one of the hardest studios to get even at 11 months. As I reviewed a recent availability chart for the resort I started to think directly about the difference between the last 3 resorts that DVC has launched (POLY, CCV, RIV) and the planned but on hold (REF). The only resort of the group not to have Cabins/Bungalows is Riviera (which has instead low point PODs for 2 people and likely to be full 100% of the time).

What is the point to this:
With the inclusion of Cabins you are able to lower point charts while causing a room shortage at the resort. On the flip side by not having Cabins you will have more "rentable" rooms but increased point charts. So while Riviera will have higher point charts that CCV it actually allows for easier availability year round as 100% of the points allotted are in room categories typically rented.

What to look at:
You will notice that Rivera will come in right at the midpoint between the Cabin and Without Cabin point charts from CCV.

Example Point Chart:
May 1-June 10; Oct 1-Nov 23; Nov 27-Nov 30
Copper Creek

Room Category	Week as it stands	Week without Cabins existing	Mid-Point of "Less Profit" for DIS
Studio	114	169	142
1BR	232	345	288
2BR	299	444	372
GV	788	1170	979
Cabins	748	Does not exist	Does not exist

Riviera

Room Category	Standard View	Preferred View
POD	99	99
Studio	123	155
1BR	260	333
2BR	345	412
GV	857	857

 

[sethschroeder]

Math: Excel Columns
Room QTY - Based on declared rooms found on another site
Room QTY % - Pull the percentage of room that fall in to a specific category
Points Per Week - 2021 weekly point chart cost
Total Points Per Week - Total number of points for all the rooms in a specific category for that season
% of Points - Is calculating of every point for a week at the resort which % go to which category of room
% S-3BR - Calculation requirement
% Correct No Cabins - This takes the roughly 32-33% that are assigned to Cabins and distributes its based on how much each category normally makes up
Points Per Week Without Cabins - This is the final calculated Points Per Week for that room Category if 100% of the points would have been assigned without Cabins being built
BONUS You will notice above in the point charts I put a "mid point" which is half way between the point charts today and the point charts without Cabins. The idea behind this is that without Cabins Disney likely would have to give up some profit on the resort and "meet in the middle" to what they wanted for profits.

Data Link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QPgNs1QKgbLrFv3Anfe65KlltS1vDsKIkC6nckcXIVE/edit?usp=sharing

 

[sethschroeder]

Point Charts:

Season	Type	Points Per Week	Points Per Week Without Cabins	Mid Point Between Charts
Sep 1—19	Studio	102​	150​	126​
	1BR	199​	292​	245​
	2BR	264​	387​	326​
	3BR	683​	1002​	843​
	Cabin	634​
Jan 1—31	Studio	107​	158​	133​
Sep 20—30	1BR	218​	322​	270​
Dec 1—23	2BR	278​	411​	345​
	3BR	737​	1090​	913​
	Cabin	688​
May 1—Jun 10	Studio	114​	169​	142​
Oct 1—Nov 23	1BR	232​	345​	288​
Nov 27—30	2BR	299​	444​	372​
	3BR	788​	1170​	979​
	Cabin	748​
Feb 1—15	Studio	120​	178​	149​
Aug 16—31	1BR	255​	378​	316​
	2BR	318​	471​	395​
	3BR	839​	1243​	1041​
	Cabin	792​
Apr 11—30	Studio	125​	186​	155​
Jun 11—Aug 15	1BR	264​	392​	328​
	2BR	341​	506​	424​
	3BR	895​	1329​	1112​
	Cabin	848​
Feb 16—28	Studio	134​	199​	167​
Mar 1—27	1BR	271​	403​	337​
Apr 5—10	2BR	362​	538​	450​
Nov 24—26	3BR	936​	1391​	1163​
	Cabin	899​
Mar 28—Apr 4	Studio	183​	278​	230​
Dec 24—31	1BR	348​	528​	438​
	2BR	464​	704​	584​
	3BR	1290​	1957​	1623​
	Cabin	1242​

 

[Sandisw]

Obviously, the addition of the cabins added points to the system that allowed a lot to be sold to most owners who were not buying for the cabins.

However, I love the idea of the cabins and my sonhas stayed in them and loved them. So, I do like that we have an option like this.

Now, you have to have a lot of points but you also don’t have to own there to book them.

 

[bobbiwoz]

We don’t own at CC, but we do at VWL because we love, love the area. I am sorry for the owners who can’t book studios, but I love the cabins! Those are definitely worth the points.

 

[sethschroeder]

I love the idea of the cabins

100% I think they are great for DVC, same with Bungalows, same with Aulani.

As I started to go through this I wanted to share the info about how the Cabin or lack thereof can impact the point charts as you know Disney wants their profit regardless its just easier to justify when selling the Cabins.

 

[cruisin5]

I wonder what the overall cost per point for maintenance and housekeeping is to DVC is for a studio v cabin.

 

[CarolMN]

I'm OK with the cabin and bungalow concept, but I wish they had built fewer of them - maybe about 1/3 of what they actually built.

 

[Sandisw]

Actually just remembered I also decided not to buy CCV because of the issues there and didn’t want that level of stress since it’s not one of my top resorts.

 

[Keetchino]

We actually bought at Copper Creek *because* of the cabins, I thought they looked amazing. And we absolutely love Wilderness Lodge at Christmas. We bought enough points where we can pull off a week in the cabins by combining 3 yrs worth of points so we aren’t limited to just the studios, but yeah if we were to buy at another resort I’d want one that doesn’t have a bunch of the big point-sucking rooms like the bungalows/cabins. It does create a situation where way too many people are going for the cheaper rooms than there is a supply of.

 

[The Jackal]

We actually bought at Copper Creek *because* of the cabins, I thought they looked amazing. And we absolutely love Wilderness Lodge at Christmas. We bought enough points where we can pull off a week in the cabins by combining 3 yrs worth of points so we aren’t limited to just the studios, but yeah if we were to buy at another resort I’d want one that doesn’t have a bunch of the big point-sucking rooms like the bungalows/cabins. It does create a situation where way too many people are going for the cheaper rooms than there is a supply of.

I did the same at OKW for a Grand Villa, 3 years worth of points with banking and borrowing, but I think my contact is smaller than yours, OKW GV’s are a bargain. I do like the cabins more than the Bungalows. Hopefully someday we will get one for a day or two.

 

[CraigInPA]

I hate to tell you that your methodology has a flaw. By keeping the number of points sold the same, but reducing the number of rentable units, you're ignoring the fact that the cabins cost money to build. That money needed to be recovered by assigning points to the cabins. Had the cabins not been built, the number of points sold may have been equal to the number of points minus the cabin points.

What the cabins and bungalows did for DVC is inflate the number of points to be sold by creating a category of room that requires a daily number of points that exceeds the number of points that most members at that resort buy in total, and probably 7/8ths couldn't book with bank and borrowing for more than a few days. As a result, only a small number of DVC members will be able to book those rooms, and 7 month availability is almost guaranteed. If you examine the actual availability, you'll see that it is very uncommon for these NOT to go into breakage, for which Disney keeps all of the money. On the flip side, because most contracts at that resort do not have enough points to book these point hogging rooms, they're disproportionally competing for lesser point rooms at the 11 month point. i.e., 7/8ths of points competing for rooms representing 2/3rds of the points. With the low number of minimum number of points required, many of these at CCV are trying to get studios, which further frustrates the owners there. So, Cabins and Bungalows are a win for Disney, and a loss for Members.

 

[sethschroeder]

I hate to tell you that your methodology has a flaw.

Hence the mid point point chart. Which more than easily would reduce revenue by more than what the cabins cost Disney. So in that mid point point chart Disney makes less.

So it was already addressed.

I think the Cabins were added to explain the profit. The midpoint eliminates roughly 550k of CCV's 3.3m points and would drop it to 2.75m which is 250k more than VGF, 1.25m less than Poly, and 3.95m less than RIV. I think Disney saw this as a way to keep the old point chart the same while still getting to the profit number they wanted.

 

[Lva5]

Actually just remembered I also decided not to buy CCV because of the issues there and didn’t want that level of stress since it’s not one of my top resorts.

Hi, I'm not familiar with the "issues" you're talking about and I'm thinking about buying there. I know this is off topic but I can't PM. Would you mind elaborating or pointing me in the right direction? Thanks!

 

[drusba]

Hi, I'm not familiar with the "issues" you're talking about and I'm thinking about buying there. I know this is off topic but I can't PM. Would you mind elaborating or pointing me in the right direction? Thanks!

An owner of a resort can begin reserving that resort at 8 a.m.,11-months out from date of arrival. CCV now has a serious 11-month issue for its studios, in that studios often book full right at 8 a.m. at 11-months out, with the result that many CCV owners seeking studios cannot get them for desired dates -- the winners are simply those whose computers communicate fastest with Disney's computers right at 8 a.m.

A cause of that problem is not having enough studios while having many extremely high nightly-point-cost cabins. The total points sold for a resort are typically enough to fill all the rooms throughout the year. DVD, the Disney timeshare sales company, for a long time had the minimum point purchase by a new purchaser for CCV at 75 points and it is now only 100. Purchasers buying those levels of points or anything near them are buying to usually get studios. The cabins require a huge amount of points per night and few can afford to buy enough points to regularly stay in the cabins. However, those cabin points could be sold to any purchasers, including any of those purchasing only enough points to get studios. The result is that studios now have that 11-month issue.

 

[dbtex83]

Hi, I'm not familiar with the "issues" you're talking about and I'm thinking about buying there. I know this is off topic but I can't PM. Would you mind elaborating or pointing me in the right direction? Thanks!

Based on some back of the napkin math, CCV studios makes up about 15% of the total points sold at the resort. So if you buy there with the intention of primarily booking studios, along with many others who do so, you're competing against a large pool of points for a relatively limited set of rooms. If studios are what you're after and you don't plan on always booking at 11 months, then a resort with more studio booking flexibility may be a better fit.

Compare this to some other resorts:
BRV studios - 21% of total points
BWV studios (pool/boardwalk) - 26% of total points
Poly studios (standard) - 56% of total points

 

[Sandisw]

Hi, I'm not familiar with the "issues" you're talking about and I'm thinking about buying there. I know this is off topic but I can't PM. Would you mind elaborating or pointing me in the right direction? Thanks!

It was the difficulty with the studios and the fact that more than 4 is an automatic 2 bedroom.

Since my purchase would have been for December trips, I just decided I didn’t want to have to walk or have to book 1 bedrooms from the start, especially since the trip could end up with just me.

So, we went with RIV and then just added on more resale at BLT after selling BWV.

Owning RIV gives me the option of studios and a few views. While they will be tough too, it will give me options

 

[Lorana]

Hi, I'm not familiar with the "issues" you're talking about and I'm thinking about buying there. I know this is off topic but I can't PM. Would you mind elaborating or pointing me in the right direction? Thanks!

The other way around the availability of studios, particularly if you do plan on regularly traveling at the same time each year, is to buy a Fixed Week. We love CCV and that's what we decided to do, buying Fixed Weeks 47 & 48 (Thanksgiving week most years, and the first week of Christmas holidays). This way we are always guaranteed a studio if we want it during that time (primarily thinking of when the kids are grown and it is just the two of us traveling). There's a ton of info on the pros and cons of Fixed Weeks here: https://www.disboards.com/threads/all-about-fixed-weeks-riv-ccv-aul-vgf-poly-charts.3806985/

 

[Lva5]

Thanks all!

 

[ElizabethG]

I own at CCV. I love the cabins. We are staying there for a week next spring. I don’t plan on booking a studio for the foreseeable future. So, the current situation works for me.