Do you think FP+ is impacting standby for some rides?

[stairstepmom]

I've been looking at wait times the last few days as we (insanely) contemplate going back sooner than we originally thought LOL... and I've noticed some surprising posted wait times, like Star Tours at 50 minutes at noon today. It's Feb 5 and though there are EMH evening hours, and it's not recommended by Josh, that seems a bit...much?

We noticed at HS especially when we were there a couple weeks ago that rides that usually had short standby suddenly had strangely long ones. Josh show a 50 minute wait for ST when it's a level 10 day, which it's not today LOL. We didn't ride Great Movie because it was a 40 min wait - Josh's list shows even on a level 10 day it shouldn't get that high.

I think with legacy FP some rides just didn't get much FP-utilization, Star Tours was always a pretty short wait and GMR didn't have FP so it was pretty constant between 10-20 except at super busy times. Now FP+ is being heavily sold to guests, much more in-your-face than FP-, and perhaps is creating a skewed sense of urgency for everyone. Arrive, see there's no FP-, OMG gotta get those FP+ booked. Then you see you can only book TSMM *or* RnRC, so what will you use the other 2 on? Star Tours and ToT or GMR if you don't ride ToT. Voila. Longer standby lines.

Any other ideas? We disliked FP+ but still had an enjoyable long visit so we can survive LOL, but I don't relish the thought of long standby lines for rides that rarely had them before. HS was our most disappointing experience on our trip because of FP+, even with 2 full days devoted there.


eta - Woah - just refreshed the app and ST suddenly shot down to 10 min. Some more Disney blips or did Brazil just go through? Another thing we noticed on our trip - more volatile wait times for 2nd tier rides. Weird.

 

[FireDancer]

Chaos theory says there will be an effect. Will it be positive or negative? Will it be permanent or temporary? Will it be a big impact or minor? It is too early to tell.

 

[wisblue]

I've been looking at wait times the last few days as we (insanely) contemplate going back sooner than we originally thought LOL... and I've noticed some surprising posted wait times, like Star Tours at 50 minutes at noon today. It's Feb 5 and though there are EMH evening hours, and it's not recommended by Josh, that seems a bit...much?

.

You have to be careful with isolated wait times.

For example, I just looked at MDE at 12:55 EST and the wait time listed there is 20 minutes.

If there is an Indiana Jones show at 11:15, when that lets out the line at Star Tours could spike up as people leave the show and go right to that line. It quickly returns to a more normal time.

According to MDE, the wait times now at TOT, RNRC, and TSMM are 30, 40, and 70 minutes. Those are not unusually long at all for early afternoon.

The rides that seem to drawing the most angst for long lines are POC and Jungle Cruise, and right now those are listed at 5 and 30 minutes. Again, nothing unusual for the middle of the day.

People are going to draw their own conclusions, but the conclusion that standby lines are routinely longer, and that FP+ is the cause of that, is pretty tenuous right now.

 

[redrosesix]

Funny, because ST and GMR are the ones I picked for fp+ since I had to pick 2 Tier 2's. And I do think people are going to book these relative to meal times (whether it's where they plan to be in the park, or what they don't want to do after they eat so they do it before lunch).

I also think 30 mins first week of Feb is pretty long for JC -- we'll be there next week and I'd never expect to see more than a 20 minute wait, even during a FD year. PoTC should be a walk on throughout these 2 weeks, so maybe they found a way to combine the FP+ and SB lines? Hope so.

People who do normally travel this time of year are saying SB lines are longer, and I know the info is anecdotal but it's probably correct. I think that anybody who says they aren't is blowing smoke, since if you add fp+ to a ride and eliminate the fp- the SB wait is going to fluctuate wildly (unless they make FP+ holders wait longer than their window as they could with fp- holders)

 

[stairstepmom]

Yeah I had checked a few times since noon and it was consistently 50 minutes, so a bit strange that it then suddenly went down. We had one time at Epcot where we were waiting in front of Nemo for some of our party and we watched the wait time go from 10 min, to 15, to 20, to 25 all in a matter of 10 minutes, then back down to 10. It was very strange as there didn't seem to be too many people going into standby, but FP+ seemed to come in little waves. Maybe just bad adjustments on Disney's wait time guesstimating.

 

[JimmyV]

Chaos theory says there will be an effect.

I actually think that it is the opposite of chaos. It is the epitomy of organization and structure. If FP+ works the way it is supposed to, then SB lines at non-headliner attractions are supposed to increase, and this is what WDW wants.

Let's assume that in the past, 20% of guests at DHS spent their day ping-pong-ing back and forth between TSM, RnR and ToT, hitting TSM three times and ToT and RnR 4 times each. Maybe more. (Admit it folks. You did this, and you know who you are! ) The remainder of the day they would spend touring other attractions and seeing shows. That's 11 rides on headliners. The FP+ system pretty much ensures that you cannot (or at least, will not) do this any more. Now, if you ride those three attractions at RD as a SB, and then ride two of those three later in the day with a FP+, you will complete a total of 5 rides on headliners with minimal waits, and any additional rides will be at the expense of a 45-90 minute wait per ride. If you did nothing but these rides (and eat) for the rest of the day, you could add enough SB rides to get you back up to where you were before, but you would accomplish little else, it would be a pretty boring day, and few people would be interested in doing this.

So where does that leave us? Since people aren't going to ride TSM, ToT and RnR a total of 11 times per day any more, they are either going to leave the park and go elsewhere, or wander over to other attractions (without FPs), and get in line. BINGO! Lines at non-headlner attractions will grow because Disney has pushed people out of the ping-pong loop and into other parts of the park. So it is not an optical illusion that the SB lines are growing, and it is not chaos. It is the intended result of a studied system.

 

[Silock]

Yes it is impacting them in a negative way. Very much so. Here now and never seen SB lines for some of these attractions so long at this time of year.

 

[redrosesix]

I actually think that it is the opposite of chaos. It is the epitomy of organization and structure. If FP+ works the way it is supposed to, then SB lines at non-headliner attractions are supposed to increase, and this is what WDW wants.

Let's assume that in the past, 20% of guests at DHS spent their day ping-pong-ing back and forth between TSM, RnR and ToT, hitting TSM three times and ToT and RnR 4 times each. Maybe more. (Admit it folks. You did this, and you know who you are! ) The remainder of the day they would spend touring other attractions and seeing shows. That's 11 rides on headliners. The FP+ system pretty much ensures that you cannot (or at least, will not) do this any more. Now, if you ride those three attractions at RD as a SB, and then ride two of those three later in the day with a FP+, you will complete a total of 5 rides on headliners with minimal waits, and any additional rides will be at the expense of a 45-90 minute wait per ride. If you did nothing but these rides (and eat) for the rest of the day, you could add enough SB rides to get you back up to where you were before, but you would accomplish little else, it would be a pretty boring day, and few people would be interested in doing this.

So where does that leave us? Since people aren't going to ride TSM, ToT and RnR a total of 11 times per day any more, they are either going to leave the park and go elsewhere, or wander over to other attractions (without FPs), and get in line. BINGO! Lines at non-headlner attractions will grow because Disney has pushed people out of the ping-pong loop and into other parts of the park. So it is not an optical illusion that the SB lines are growing, and it is not chaos. It is the intended result of a studied system.

good post

I'd go further and say that in DHS you're only going to get 4 headliner rides in, since you only get 1 FP+ for Tier 1 there. For us it will only 3 -- F!, RnRC and TSMM were all eligible choices for my family for the Tier 1 spot. We decided to use F! -- I know, not happy about that choice, but it was about where we wanted to eat dinner. So we're doing SB for RnRC, TSMM and ToT (maybe -- if it's too much waiting we'll just do more Tier 2 rides).

So you're right about us at least.

 

[JimmyV]

good post

I'd go further and say that in DHS you're only going to get 4 headliner rides in, since you only get 1 FP+ for Tier 1 there.

ToT and RnR are in different tiers. So a typical day might be:

1. TSM as a SB, followed immediately by
2. RnR as a SB, followed immediately by
3. TT as a SB. Later in the day...
4. RnR or TSM as a FP+. Later in the day...
5. ToT as a FP+

 

[ShayBells]

I actually think that it is the opposite of chaos. It is the epitomy of organization and structure. If FP+ works the way it is supposed to, then SB lines at non-headliner attractions are supposed to increase, and this is what WDW wants. Let's assume that in the past, 20% of guests at DHS spent their day ping-pong-ing back and forth between TSM, RnR and ToT, hitting TSM three times and ToT and RnR 4 times each. Maybe more. (Admit it folks. You did this, and you know who you are! ) The remainder of the day they would spend touring other attractions and seeing shows. That's 11 rides on headliners. The FP+ system pretty much ensures that you cannot (or at least, will not) do this any more. Now, if you ride those three attractions at RD as a SB, and then ride two of those three later in the day with a FP+, you will complete a total of 5 rides on headliners with minimal waits, and any additional rides will be at the expense of a 45-90 minute wait per ride. If you did nothing but these rides (and eat) for the rest of the day, you could add enough SB rides to get you back up to where you were before, but you would accomplish little else, it would be a pretty boring day, and few people would be interested in doing this. So where does that leave us? Since people aren't going to ride TSM, ToT and RnR a total of 11 times per day any more, they are either going to leave the park and go elsewhere, or wander over to other attractions (without FPs), and get in line. BINGO! Lines at non-headlner attractions will grow because Disney has pushed people out of the ping-pong loop and into other parts of the park. So it is not an optical illusion that the SB lines are growing, and it is not chaos. It is the intended result of a studied system.

Chaos theory is basically when something else is affected by something prior. Not that something is simply chaotic. The beat of a butterfly's wing is in no way chaotic yet miles and miles away a Tsunami can form.

Just because you have something organized and structured doesn't mean the result will always be smooth.

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[stinkpickle]

Yeah I had checked a few times since noon and it was consistently 50 minutes, so a bit strange that it then suddenly went down. We had one time at Epcot where we were waiting in front of Nemo for some of our party and we watched the wait time go from 10 min, to 15, to 20, to 25 all in a matter of 10 minutes, then back down to 10. It was very strange as there didn't seem to be too many people going into standby, but FP+ seemed to come in little waves. Maybe just bad adjustments on Disney's wait time guesstimating.

We noticed that last week. Some standby times were all over the place, and it seemed to be caused by waves of FP+ return riders. I watched ToT go from 10 min to 45 min and back to 10 min within a one hour span.

 

[JimmyV]

Chaos theory is basically when something else is affected by something prior. Not that something is simply chaotic. The beat of a butterfly's wing is in no way chaotic yet miles and miles away a Tsunami can form.

Just because you have something organized and structured doesn't mean the result will always be smooth.

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I understand the theory. But it is used to explain large difference achieved from small variations, and the large differences are essentially unpredictable. Which is why I do not equate the FP+ phenomenon with chaos. I view the cause and effect to be more linear and predictable. If something is linear and predictable, one would not use chaos theory to describe it. Or, at least, I wouldn't.

 

[ShayBells]

I understand the theory. But it is used to explain large difference achieved from small variations, and the large differences are essentially unpredictable. Which is why I do not equate the FP+ phenomenon with chaos. I view the cause and effect to be more linear and predictable. If something is linear and predictable, one would not use chaos theory to describe it. Or, at least, I wouldn't.

I guess it's subjective. I just wouldn't use the word chaos when talking about the cause. It's the effect that is chaotic within the chaos theory And I wouldn't assume the effect is predictable. Especially when there are so many opinions in the mix.

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[JimmyV]

I guess it's subjective. I just wouldn't use the word chaos when talking about the cause. It's the effect that is chaotic within the chaos theory And I wouldn't assume the effect is predictable. Especially when there are so many opinions in the mix.

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You are correct about subjectivity. Back in the early days of planning for MM+ and FP+, Disney stated that one of its objectives was crowd dispersal away from headliner attractions seeking to achieve greater line balance. Disney suffers from bad PR when people report that there are 120 minute lines. So it engineered a system to address this (in part). So where you may not view the effect as predictable, I (subjectively) place it in that column since the longer lines at non-headliner attractions seems to be the mark that they were aiming for. I suppose that the effect that we are seeing as compared to the effect Disney wanted to create could be coincidence instead of design. So that is one of the places where subjectivity comes into play.

 

[ShayBells]

You are correct about subjectivity. Back in the early days of planning for MM+ and FP+, Disney stated that one of its objectives was crowd dispersal away from headliner attractions seeking to achieve greater line balance. Disney suffers from bad PR when people report that there are 120 minute lines. So it engineered a system to address this (in part). So where you may not view the effect as predictable, I (subjectively) place it in that column since the longer lines at non-headliner attractions seems to be the mark that they were aiming for. I suppose that the effect that we are seeing as compared to the effect Disney wanted to create could be coincidence instead of design. So that is one of the places where subjectivity comes into play.

Well said

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[shalom]

When we've gone in January (and not anywhere near the holidays), 30 minutes for Jungle Cruise is pretty common. It was at 50 minutes when we met there to ride it at 6:00 one night in January 2013, which is well past peak time.

Lines at non-headlner attractions will grow because Disney has pushed people out of the ping-pong loop and into other parts of the park.

I've thought it'd work this way as well.. Just the fact that some rides have FP that did not before could potentially slow down their standby lines if Disney succeeds in steering newbies into them. Since we were not big FP- users, if FP+ has a strongly negative impact on my family, here is where it'll be.

OTOH, some of what we're seeing now could be a combination of Disney kicking up past true standby times (as some anecdotal evidence seems to support), and some of it could just be the fact that Disney doesn't have enough numbers to keep the lines going more smoothly yet. Theoretically, at least, FP+ will give Disney the ability to manage crowds effectively enough to keep the standby lines down to past averages even if people who used to really work the FP system end up in a lot more standby lines.

Realistically? No idea if they're going to be able to accomplish anything like that. But I do think it's too early to get a good feel for how it'll all shake out.

 

[oddman]

I agree the intent is clearly to spread the load more evenly, but who really wants to wait 40 mins for a lower level ride.

I confess I see an easy way to buy my way out of this, simply go to universal stay onsite for a few days and enjoy the fast line. We have been to DW dozens of times if in a few years they figure out how to make it work, sure I will go back. But for now it is Hawaii and some of the parks I have ignored the last 10 or 20 years....

(and yes I know you and Disney don't care if we don't come back, they have more than enough customers)

 

[wisblue]

We noticed that last week. Some standby times were all over the place, and it seemed to be caused by waves of FP+ return riders. I watched ToT go from 10 min to 45 min and back to 10 min within a one hour span.

Someone on another thread described a similar situation, and a CM told him/her that one side of the elevators had gone down, immediately cutting the ride capacity in half. That caused the standby wait to spike up and, once the ride returned to full capacity, it came back down.

There are factors other than FP returns that cause standby lines to get longer quickly. Some of them walk around with green flags with symbols on them that are Portuguese for "Warning. Long Standby Line Ahead!!"

 

[redrosesix]

I agree the intent is clearly to spread the load more evenly, but who really wants to wait 40 mins for a lower level ride.

I confess I see an easy way to buy my way out of this, simply go to universal stay onsite for a few days and enjoy the fast line. We have been to DW dozens of times if in a few years they figure out how to make it work, sure I will go back. But for now it is Hawaii and some of the parks I have ignored the last 10 or 20 years....

(and yes I know you and Disney don't care if we don't come back, they have more than enough customers)

well I was thinking US, but DH made a good point, asking if they had this at other parks. No -- "well we should go to those before they mess them up too". They only have this at wdw and according to everything I've heard and read, no plans to implement it at any other parks. plus they've been building at other parks.

So instead of doing a two week trip to Orlando and spending all but a couple of days at wdw, we'll do a trip to Europe and spend 1-2 days at Disney in Paris (more likely 1, since I hear there are other things to do in Paris

I guess either way disney is losing our money if they can't at least look like they're making an effort to sort themselves out.

 

[magicbob]

There are factors other than FP returns that cause standby lines to get longer quickly. Some of them walk around with green flags with symbols on them that are Portuguese for "Warning. Long Standby Line Ahead!!"