Do you think DVC sales will slow down or continue to grow?

[drakethib]

This is not a resort knocking thread, so please don't take it that way.

My wife and I were talking and so far I think there are around 100,000 DVC members.

While we all know DVC is a great deal (IMHO anyway) you almost have to be a Disney Nut to shell out a so much money so that you can visit Disney over and over again.

BEFORE THE FLAMES START I AM A DISNEY NUT & A DVC OWNER !!!!

I just wonder if it will slow down or when it will hit a point of deminishing returns.

I would love to see how membership has grown in the last few years.(i.e # of members per year).


Thoughts?

 

[DrTomorrow]

At first I thought that there's always going to be another generation of Disney Nuts, but on further reflection I'm not sure. DW and I (in our 40s) grew up during a big Disney time, seeing Snow White at drive-ins, all those wacky live action movies ("The CPU that wore Nikes" or something), Lady & the Tramp, etc. DS (25) grew up during that wonderful time of Little Mermaid, Aladdin, BATB, etc. Since we have no DGS or DGD yet, I don't know if Disney is as much as part of today's youth as it was for us and our son.

My point is this: there will always be new folks who have enough money to buy into DVC, the question is will they still want to....

 

[JimMIA]

Since we have no DGS or DGD yet, I don't know if Disney is as much as part of today's youth as it was for us and our son.

HA!

DDnow4goingon24 is pleased to advise that Disney is VERY MUCH a part of her Princess/Tinkerbell life! Her closet is lined with Princess costumes (which of course she outgrows, and will have to be replaced), her walls are plastered with Disney stuff, her DVD collection is probably 80% Disney films, her recent birthday party was a Tink theme, and her home page on her computer is Playhouse Disney (which incidentally, she navigates completely by herself).

When we asked her to make a birthday wish, it was, "I wish we could go back to Disney World!" (We hadn't been in 3 months).

I think DVC will be just fine.

(Gotta go. Have to put her lunch in her Princess lunchbox and grab her Princess backpack, and take her to school!)

 

[browniemtb]

I would agree with JimMIA....We have a 5 and 3 year old and Disney is a huge part of their lives. Between toon Disney and the plain Disney channel on TV to Disney software for the computer, princess dress up, disney videos, and those Disney pins.....they still trade back and forth. Disney will be a part of every generation in one way or another. When people visit WDW for the first time they either become Disney nuts or not. DVC will live a long life......just look at ROFR.....if people weren't buying Disney would stop buying.
Brownie

 

[bom_noite]

I would agree with everyone else - I know lots of younger families that believe in WDW. And, the Pixar thing should mean they are coming out with lots new characters the kids can identify with.

But, I do not think the "brand message" of clean wholesome family fun is as strong as when we were young!

 

[sean-1966]

I was talking ot my 2 year old niece yesterday and I asked her what her favourite movie is? "Lilo and Stitch" was her reply. I guess Disney is part of every generation. I remember being a kid watching Wonderful World of Disney on Sunday nights and hoping that they were going to play a cartoon. I've often thought about that and wonder if that is why I am such a Diz nut now.

 

[pouncingpluto]

I think it depends on the kids. You know, my brother and I were raised by Disney-loving parents, and we each independently decided to buy DVC this year. My husband and I don't have children, but my brother does. The kids had a few Disney favorites (lately it's Snow White, believe it or not) before their first trip to WDW at ages 5 and 2, but now they seem to be especially interested in Disney and very excited to go back again! I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them turns out to be an adult Disney nut like me.

 

[cobbler]

I think there will always be highs and lows. Slow sales now I think is just a by product of the economy. New housing sales slumped in Feb I hear on the news - at least in my area. Haven't heard for March yet.

Also with the interest rates being raised - AGAIN, that doesn't really help. People are getting more debt conscious, sort-of.

If we have a booming economy again I think sales will pick up.

The baby boomers are starting to retire, the last half of them (which is my mom) is starting to think about it, so that means my generation (not gen X, I am a year to late for that) is starting to settle down, have families and starting vacations so we will be the ones that will introduce Disney to our kids and keep the trend going.

My son is all about Disney right now, he keeps saying he wants me to take him to "breakfast house" (This is what he calls the Contemporary because we have breakfast at Chef Mickey's there every trip).

But I think it will stagnate for a while. I do see that when some of the older owners pass, their kids may not want to keep their timeshare, sell it and such. I think there will always be a renewal but not sure how high it will go. Ok, this last part was really more rambling but you get the idea.

 

[elijahpep]

My mother in law took my husband ( he was the youngest ) many times when he was younger. His older siblings didn't go with them as they were much older. Her introduction of WDW has stuck. Only one of his siblings, between the 2 of them, have been once in the 15 years I've known them .

She then, took us and our kids a few years ago helping our kids become fans of Disney. Through her love for this place and all things Disney, she has enabled 2 more of her generations find that place where Dreams come true!~

That being said, we have now purchased 2 sets of points for DVC. We have explained to our children this will be there for them when they are grown and have their own kiddies. I think DVC aids in Disney's future success(and vice versa) and hope it continues to allow folks everywhere to share in the Magic of Disney for years to come!~

~DW

 

[BrianD]

I don't know about where you live, but where I am the economy is doing VERY well. I don't see the economic slow down. In fact it's picked up over the last two years.

IF sales have slowed, I think it is because of the current building resort, SSR. I think the resort add-ons (BCV, BWV, & VWL) have more appeal because of their location and their theming. People who loved staying at the WL, we ecstatic when VWL was built, because it meant they could "own" a villa at their favorite resort. The same goes for BCV. Some folks love BC/YC, and that pool! BWV same thing. And how about their location! SSR is not an add-on to anything, and it's not a terribly whymsical theming. (That being said, I think it is a very nice looking resort.) It is close to DTD, but it's not the same as being able to walk into Epcot, or take a boat to MK. Also, SSR is a very large resort, so between that and the not as appealing reasons mentioned above, it will take a while to sell. But I'd be willing to bet dollars to donughts that the next DVC resort will be an add-on, and if it is where the rumors are pointing towards, you better believe it will sell out very quickly. I've talked to several people, myself included, who say if they ever put a DVC on the monorail, they would buy in an instant. And even if they don't, I may buy resale from BCV next year.

 

[cobbler]

I don't know about where you live, but where I am the economy is doing VERY well. I don't see the economic slow down. In fact it's picked up over the last two years.

I live in MI. We have been hit super hard with numerous plant closings from Delphi, to Electrolux to GM layoffs and the whole 9.

 

[BrianD]

I live in MI. We have been hit super hard with numerous plant closings from Delphi, to Electrolux to GM layoffs and the whole 9.

That really stinks. I have heard about MI getting hit hard lately. My point was though I don't think it's a national economic downturn that could be slowing sales. If you look at how things were in 2002 & 2003 when the national economy was struggling, yet BCV was selling like hot cakes.

 

[DisFlan]

I grew up on the Wonderful World of Disney, too. Prof. Von Drake and his lessons, Daniel Boone etc. Younger people have Stitch, Woody and Buzz. "Disney" changes a little from generation to generation, which is good.

Disney, the parks and DVC are bound to peak at some point in the future, but that's probably a long way away. This depends on Disney as much as consumers. Disney needs to make good decisions and upgrades, and they need to keep quality at a high level over a very long period. They need to adequately fulfill expectations. If they don't, the "magic" of Disney will melt away. And DVC sales would respond accordingly.

DisFlan

 

[gammieatwdw]

That really stinks. I have heard about MI getting hit hard lately. My point was though I don't think it's a national economic downturn that could be slowing sales. If you look at how things were in 2002 & 2003 when the national economy was struggling, yet BCV was selling like hot cakes.

BrianD is right. Sales have nothing to do with a Disney generation or kids. Parents make the decsion to buy or not. Slow sales have to do with SSR. If and when they add a more appealing resort with a better location (monorail) that resort will sell out in a year or less.

 

[1000th happy haunt]

DVC is not a separate entity, but part of the whole Disney family. So some of it really depends on people like Bob Iger and John Lasseter, and I have a lot of faith in both of them.

John Lasseter has been put in charge of Imagineering, and one of the first things he did was walk into Tony Baxter's office and want to know all the ideas Baxter had for the parks that hadn't been put into motion yet. If Lasseter can update, refurb, and create new things for the parks, then demand for the parks will increase, thereby increasing demand for DVC.

And Bob Iger is responsible for approving all those new things.

And DVC is already testing the waters by offering new vacations outside of the parks.

As I said, I have faith in the new management team, so I think demand for DVC will continue to rise. It may take a while because of timelines (it takes a while to build a new attraction) and economic recessions, but it will continue to go up (especially if there's a DVC added to the Poly and/or Animal Kingdom Lodge).

 

[DrTomorrow]

BrianD is right. Sales have nothing to do with a Disney generation or kids. Parents make the decsion to buy or not. Slow sales have to do with SSR. If and when they add a more appealing resort with a better location (monorail) that resort will sell out in a year or less.

I politely disagree. IMHO it has everything to do with adults - yes, they make the purchase decision - who were raised in / or fell in love with a Disney atmosphere. Look at the marketing: Own a Piece of the Magic! You can't tell me that someone who visited WDW once and had an "eh" response is going to shell out the $$$ to buy DVC. As Dean has pointed out, Orlando has many top notch timeshares - at lower costs than Disney - if one wants to vacation in central Florida but doesn't need a fix of pixie dust.

As for economic issues: while BrianD is correct, and some regions of the country are doing better than others, there is a perception that things are not as secure as they once were. Right or wrong, people are worried about jobs (layoffs, outsourcing, downsizing, bankruptcy), interest rate hikes, medical cost increases, etc. DVC is very much a luxury item; when people are concerned about the continuation of their disposable income, they are more likely to defer just such a luxury purchase, at least for a while.

IMHO - YMMV

 

[bom_noite]

As I said, I have faith in the new management team

I hope you are right! I was a bit fearful when Igor took over - since he is a TV guy! But, that is not fair to label anyone!

I was impressed when: 1) Roy Jr. came back and 2) Pixar was inked. Those were good signs!

Time will tell - let's hope he put's some time and money in the parks. They have been a cash cow for a few years - lets hope they re-invest!

 

[shantay1008]

Do you think that a lot of people used the equity in their homes to make luxury purchases such as DVC over the past few years while interest rates were so low?

 

[DVC Sadie]

Do you think that a lot of people used the equity in their homes to make luxury purchases such as DVC over the past few years while interest rates were so low?

Yes, I do think a lot of people took out HEL and not only for DVC while the interest rate was low. Now that interest rates are rising people do not have as much descretionary income. That can also affect sales in DVC.

 

[bigsmooth]

Do you think that a lot of people used the equity in their homes to make luxury purchases such as DVC over the past few years while interest rates were so low?

Absolutely. The rates set by the Fed have a huge impact on discretionary spending, especialy in the day where equity lines are fairly common and the refinancing boom expose a lot of people to equity lines. So rising rates will impact what people use them for. I remember reading a study that accounted for the money either put into or taken out of the economy for each quarter point decrease or increase in short term interest rates. It is pretty impressive. I financed my DVC purchase when the interest rate on my equity line was much lower than it is now. Would I purchase today at the current rate? Probably, but who knows. I'd definitely agonize the purchase more, perhaps trying to come up with more cash upfront.

Now does that impact SSR sales? I'm sure it does, but among many other factors. I both like and dislike the SSR debate. Personally, I like SSR, BW and BCV for certain reasons. If they added on to the Contemporary, I would never consider it, and may only try it once. My tastes may be in the minority, but I like the resorts I mentioned because of the dining available, the Spa (for my wife), the night life. I do think Disney should be concerned about supply and demand. Rather than building something as big as SSR, perhaps they should focus on smaller locations spread across different themed areas. That drives up operating costs, but I can understand the appeal. I am looking forward to trying each and every resort at least once.