Prices have risen over the past 6 months that I have been seeing. It is hard to understand why, but here are some patterns I have seen:
1> ROFR is down (gauging from several threads within this forum and other information on the OCC site)
2> Disney has been taking an obscene amount of time in ROFR and Estoppel. This may have caused a backlog in demand
3> Disney last year bumped up their prices for older resorts, which may have bumped up the ask in resale. This is my speculation only.
4> Rental market is strong and people understand they can recoup unused points for cash to level out their annual dues.
My personal advise would be to take a contract that you like. I took two this year and LOVE my options. I already booked within the 7 month window at AKL and VGF.
1. I think ROFR is down because the prices are up. I'm sure that
DVC was making a lot of money buying contracts back at $90 and reselling them at $150. But not so much, when they are buying back at $120.
2. I think that ROFR and Estoppel times are longer because the resale contracts are moving at a lightning rate. I see very few contracts stay on the market for more than a few weeks. Last year when contracts were plentiful and demand low, Disney was turning and burning these within a couple of weeks.
3. I think you really are correct here. $170 pp is an insane amount to pay for the contracts. Last year when I was on the Disney Wonder I was offered what amounted to $150 pp. Now, I was prepared to pay 120 or even 130 but $150! I told the guide "no thanks!" I am sure that the high Disney prices have a lot of people looking seriously at resale.
4. The rental market has been there for years, and while the return to owners for rentals has increased lately, I really don't think that it is enough to have driven prices up.
In my opinion, I think that one needs to look at the properties that are jumping up to see the reason:
1. BLT. This property is seeing the benefit of the Fact that Disney has limited the options on the Monorail circle. GFV is small, expensive (both per point and in number of points for reservation) and is disappointingly difficult for owners to get studios. The Poly ONLY has Studios, so owners there have no other option but to go to GFV or BLT for larger rooms. This will ultimately make being an owner at BLT VERY important as BLT owners will see a lot of competition at 7 mos from the other monorail resorts. It stands to reason that this resort has shot up in price.
2. HHI and VB: Hardly any change here. If DVC were up across the board you'd expect to see these up as well.
3. BCV and BWV: This is interesting. BCV has increased in price whereas BWV really hasn't very much. BCV is being renovated and is always very popular. BWV is higher than most because of the proximity to Epcot but I've really not seen the large jump in price that I've seen elsewhere.
4. GCV and Aulani: Like HHI and VB, little to no price increase over the past 8 months. It stays high because of demand. But it got no bump from the recent DVC price increase. As far as Aulani goes, I've actually seen prices soften there a bit. Last October it was going for a hair over $100 pp and now is usually had for around $99.
5. SSR and OKW: Now these two saw a bump in their price. You wouldn't think so because of the large number of contracts that are up for sale at these locations but they did see a modest $10 pp price bump. I really think that this is a direct result of Disney Springs. People are getting excited about the completion of the DTD area and find these resorts not quite so unpalatable anymore. (perception only, I actually believe that these resorts are pretty cool with the amenities that they provide)
6. VWL: This resort did not see the bump in price even though the nearby DVC resorts did AND there is now news of an addition to this resort. But still no increase. It's not on the monorail so it didn't get the Poly BUST Boost.
7. AKV: perhaps the most telling reason that I see the higher prices as more of a location issue and not so much as a DVC-wide phenomenon is that AKV didn't really go up by that much with the recent hike in average DVC resale price. Nothing going on there so there's not much to drive prices up. It's a lovely resort with amenities that cannot be found elsewhere, but still did not jump in price over the last 8 months.
There's not doubt that there are fewer properties on the market right now but not all of the properties are seeing the supply vs demand price boost and I think that the boost is driven more on what is going on at the properties rather than on what DVC is doing to their prices.
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in advance.
