Disney's Long Term DVC Strategy

[Sandisw]

My guess is that they'll offer a way to 'wash' resale points as other timeshares have done before we reach the point of every resale being restricted to one resort, maybe even before 2042.

I actually don’t see that. What I could see is they create an additonal exchange program where owners might be able to pay a per reservation fee to exchange points.

For example, they’d pay $10/pt plus their own points to book a different resort using DVCs points.

 

[Brian Noble]

My assumption is that they won't be able to convert every resale owner who might be interested in more flexibility to direct, if that involves selling the resale points and buying direct.

I don't think "convert every resale owner" is a reasonable (or even desirable) objective. The only thing that matters is: Can DVC continue to sell enough points at the prices they expect to generate the profit they desire?

At the moment, they are evidently happy with the pace of sales. If for some reason sales fall off, then maybe they would do that. But, discounting begets discounting. I never pay full price for anything at Old Navy, because they are always running some sale or another, and if I wait a week or two, this thing I want will be on sale too.

Having an affordable point washing scheme might give you a bolus of revenue today, but it might also set expectations in the minds of informed buyers later. Right now, the only way to get fully flexible points is to pay retail. Giving that up would be a serious blow.

We've already seen a little bit of this when every new incentive cycle, folks are hoping for the next "fire sale".

 

[Girlstar30]

I too speculate on what other opportunities for non-park DVC resorts might pique their interest but based on resale values I'm inclined to believe Disney is not interested. It does make me wonder what the discussions were that convinced them that HHI, VB, and AUL fit the business model then and not now if true.
I've never been to DCL's private island but that does provide some interestic dynamics and logistics especially when factoring in DCL. On the one hand, what makes it more attractive then AUL as a resort? But I could see it partnering with DCL for a combo 14 day cruise/DVC week. 3 day cruise, 7 night on private island, 4 day return cruise. Could be a win/win for both DVD and DCL. Has anyone crunched the numbers of potential guests when comparing East coast to West coast? Even though AUL has taken longer to sell out than any other resort?, it seems as though it doesn't lack occupancy.

I know the chances are slim but i would love it if whatever resort gets built by Cotino has some DVC rooms. We would def stay there.

We got invited to a private beach party at Cotino to preview the Artisan club offerings this past weekend and it was spectacular.

The beach side for the public is expected to open in Fall 2026 and I personally think it would be a great addition although I was told the hotel wont be built for another 3-5 years. There are volleyball courts, bocce ball, there will be a restaurant, theres a beach bar, and we got to test out the water sports including canoeing and paddleboarding which will be available for public use. There is also wildlife and it is great for a weekend getaway.

I tried to ofc ask if this would be a possibility and I got no response but I didnt get a no either I think it will be a great place for families to visit and we cant wait to return when its open!

 

[tx911]

I was going to like this post but I hope they do go this route... ideally at a number I already own but I do think somewhere like 500 (far more than I own direct) would be a smart play to get a lot of us "entry level but susceptible to FOMO" owners to get us to swap some resale contracts for new points... frankly, it would cost them almost nothing to say "at 400/500/600 you get to pick one MM event each year, and at 1000 points you can pick 2"... at least, I presume that less than 5% of the membership hits the first threshold and less than 1% of the membership hits the second.

I really feel like this would be effective at getting people to buy more direct points, IF the perks were good enough.

 

[walt34]

I don't think "convert every resale owner" is a reasonable (or even desirable) objective.

Well, that's why I said resale owners who might be interested in more flexibility. Obviously not everyone would pay for it but some would.

The only thing that matters is: Can DVC continue to sell enough points at the prices they expect to generate the profit they desire?

Is there an upper limit on desired profits? But yes, I assume it would be something they bring out when they are not happy with sales otherwise.

At the moment, they are evidently happy with the pace of sales. If for some reason sales fall off, then maybe they would do that. But, discounting begets discounting. I never pay full price for anything at Old Navy, because they are always running some sale or another, and if I wait a week or two, this thing I want will be on sale too.

Having an affordable point washing scheme might give you a bolus of revenue today, but it might also set expectations in the minds of informed buyers later. Right now, the only way to get fully flexible points is to pay retail. Giving that up would be a serious blow.

We've already seen a little bit of this when every new incentive cycle, folks are hoping for the next "fire sale".

But as you have pointed out frequently, most direct sales don't go to informed buyers. And direct even worked when they had little or no resale restrictions. They obviously feel the restrictions help them sell better - otherwise they wouldn't implement them. But, following your theory of mostly uninformed buyers, it's mostly affecting the route of resale to direct. And I'm not so sure, you can't make more money by converting resale owners directly. More people might be tempted by this than there are people who are willing to add on direct or sell resale points to go direct. It's a much higher barrier.

Disney being Disney, they probably have surveys on this but we can only guess. At least that's what I'm doing.

 

[Girlstar30]

I agree with all of that really, but I think the financial benefit outweighs the downside because Disney was already dealing with resale values at several resorts that were about half of the direct price.

I'm absolutely in the same boat - would never buy RIV or VDH direct because of the restrictions and the immediate loss when you drive that contract off the lot. On the other hand, if VDH drops in the resale market over time in a similar way to what has happened at RIV it could be tempting to pick some up that way. Front of Epcot resorts could be the same - it takes a little patience as you have to wait several years after they start selling for enough contracts to be on the resale block so that a real market develops - but already you're seeing VDH in the $160s. Actually makes me feel bad to look at - those are owners who barely even got started and now looking at pretty significant losses on the sale.

Vdh is $188 with MB for a 150 point contract right now when stacking all incentives... a $160 resale price is great and higher than most unrestricted resorts go resale and its restricted. This higher resale price actually made me feel more comfortable buying there. I do not think it will go down to riv levels seeing as there are only two California resorts for the time being

 

[Sandisw]

Vdh is $188 with MB for a 150 point contract right now when stacking all incentives... a $160 resale price is great and higher than most unrestricted resorts go resale and its restricted. This higher resale price actually made me feel more comfortable buying there. I do not think it will go down to riv levels seeing as there are only two California resorts for the time being

RIV was selling in the $140s, even some $150s, when the first contracts started hitting the market and over the years its has declined.

It seems to have settled in to the $110 to $120 average for the past year or two.

VDH could suffer a similar fate. While it is only one of two CA properties, it comes with a high TOT tax and given it can’t be used anywhere else, that cost can’t be avoided.

 

[Tatebeck]

FYI VDH is already getting down in the $130s now. So that is probably closer to it's natural falling point than the 160ish it had been at before. Avg of $137 in the February 2026 report

At first once a new resort is released resale contracts are scarce and once enough have come onto the market we can see a new-ish resort's true resale value.

 

[Girlstar30]

FYI VDH is already getting down in the $130s now. So that is probably closer to it's natural falling point than the 160ish it had been at before. Avg of $137 in the February 2026 report

At first once a new resort is released resale contracts are scarce and once enough have come onto the market we can see a new-ish resort's true resale value.

I only see one contract listed close to that price but maybe youre seeing stuff im not

 

[Girlstar30]

RIV was selling in the $140s, even some $150s, when the first contracts started hitting the market and over the years its has declined.

It seems to have settled in to the $110 to $120 average for the past year or two.

VDH could suffer a similar fate. While it is only one of two CA properties, it comes with a high TOT tax and given it can’t be used anywhere else, that cost can’t be avoided.

It does have the high tot, but the choices in California are that and vgc and vgc resale is very expensive. Lots of Florida resorts to choose from that dont have restrictions. So I do think the limited number hotels will keep the price up, but I suppose anything can happen and we will see how it plays out.

 

[Tatebeck]

I only see one contract listed close to that price but maybe youre seeing stuff im not

The current listed contracts are ones that aren't selling...

You have to look at the sold contracts to get the actual selling value. Sellers can ask for whatever they want, but you have to look at what they are actually selling for.

Here is the Feb 2026 selling report from DVC Resale Market.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2026/

It had been in the $150s and $160s and dropped to an average of $137 in February. And that is with low resale inventory across the board, so it could still be a bit inflated even at $137

 

[Girlstar30]

FYI VDH is already getting down in the $130s now. So that is probably closer to it's natural falling point than the 160ish it had been at before. Avg of $137 in the February 2026 report

At first once a new resort is released resale contracts are scarce and once enough have come onto the market we can see a new-ish resort's true resale value.

I see what you are looking at, one month in 2026 (February) on dvc resale market. May 2025 also saw $150 average and then it jumped to $180 in July 2025 and $195 in august 2025 according to that. Riv never saw those high prices for average resale basically almost matching direct prices at points so my confidence in VDH retaining value on par with unrestricted resorts stands.

 

[Tatebeck]

I see what you are looking at, one month in 2026 (February) on dvc resale market. May 2025 also saw $150 average and then it jumped to $180 in July 2025 and $195 in august 2025 according to that. Riv never saw those high prices for average resale ($180 and $195) so my confidence in VDH retaining value on par with unrestricted resorts stands.

I see what you are saying but RIV has been out much longer and has already stabilized while VDH is still new-ish and still falling in the AVG sale price department.

In the last year the Highest Monthly Average for RIV was $120, and it only dropped to $116. So very stable.

The Highest Monthly Average in the last year for VDH was $190! And some months had 0 sales because there were so few available. And that has dropped $53 to $137 for Feb compared to RIV dropping only $4 over the same time frame.

The VDH resale price has been higher than it's actual value for a while because it has been so limited in supply. As more are resold, the price will continue to drop until it is stable. That could be in the $130s where it got to last month, or it could be a bit further due to TOT, resale restrictions and average members not liking DL over WDW, or something else entirely

 

[Brian Noble]

most direct sales don't go to informed buyers

But resale buyers, by definition, are informed. No one is showing up at my door to sell me a used timeshare. And so for them, the calculus is different.

Beyond that, I've said my piece on this.

 

[Girlstar30]

I see what you are saying but RIV has been out much longer and has already stabilized while VDH is still new-ish and still falling in the AVG sale price department.

In the last year the Highest Monthly Average for RIV was $120, and it only dropped to $116. So very stable.

The Highest Monthly Average for VDH was $190! And some months had 0 sales because there were so few available. And that has dropped $53 to $137 for Feb compared to RIV dropping only $4 over the same time frame.

We will see if March shot up again which i think is very possible looking at these reports. Riv has already made it clear that the restrictions has caused major devaluing, but I cant say the same for vdh yet, and my prediction it will stay high is just a guess for now. We dont know for certain that vdh will continue to drop.

 

[Cfabar1]

We will see if March shot up again which i think is very possible looking at these reports. Riv has already made it clear that the restrictions has caused major devaluing, but I cant say the same for vdh yet, and my prediction it will stay high is just a guess for now

I agree with that prediction… why would you buy VDH points unless you wanted home resort booking in California?

As I have said many times, in practice VGC is a restricted resort.

 

[Tatebeck]

We will see if March shot up again which i think is very possible looking at these reports. Riv has already made it clear that the restrictions has caused major devaluing, but I cant say the same for vdh yet, and my prediction it will stay high is just a guess for now

We'll see! I think it will get closer to RIV over time. Similar restrictions, expiration date, etc. Slightly longer expiration date for VDH, but then it has the extra TOT you will have to pay every time and the myriad of very close off-site hotels at DL vs virtually none at WDW (Swan and Dolphin excluded)

*But I will say that could see it staying higher if no other DVC locations open at DL in the next few years and DL Forward brings DL right to VDH's door

 

[Cfabar1]

I wonder if it would be a hard sell for them to resale vb after 2042 especially after others see how low its value has gone compared to other 2042s at this stage and the high mf it requires

Good point… though I’d imagine by 2042 any properties are rolled into the trust… so no one will really know whether those dues are high because you’re maintaining a nearly 50 year old boardwalk dock or an ocean front turtle refugee center…

 

[Girlstar30]

We'll see! I think it will get closer to RIV over time. Similar restrictions, expiration date, etc. Slightly longer expiration date for VDH, but then it has the extra TOT you will have to pay every time and the myriad of very close off-site hotels at DL vs virtually none at WDW (Swan and Dolphin excluded)

*But I will say that could see it staying higher if no other DVC locations open at DL in the next few years and DL Forward brings DL right to VDH's door

Thats the hope The tot doesnt bother me because I only pay it when I stay there. My direct contract will be used for restricted resorts only including fl ones is the plan for now. I dont think many dvc buyers will like to stay at offsite resorts at least I dont so i dont see that having much affect. My random wild guess is vdh at $140s to $150s stabilized and riv at $110 within the next 5 years

 

[Girlstar30]

Good point… though I’d imagine by 2042 any properties are rolled into the trust… so no one will really know whether those dues are high because you’re maintaining a nearly 50 year old boardwalk dock or an ocean front turtle refugee center…

True that trust is a whole other ball game. I actually hope they keep it, I think more resorts is better. The survey asking about home resort priorities and throwing in hhi as an example makes me think theres a chance theyre trying to see what they can do with these as others have mentioned!