Disney, Why...? The TDO Footprint Constraint

[lockedoutlogic]

I think we could see the opposite due to automation & MagicBands, I think genral cast for parades and Mickey hand waving will remain about the same but check-in desk, counter service till, ticket sales windows etc cast numbers will all go down as these can be replaced with an automated touch screen process.

You may be right...

But do you honestly think that they'll "pay for smiles" as opposed to save a few pennies?

Even the Disney brothers wouldn't go for that In 1955

 

[dvczerfs]

DTD makes a lot of sense. How far they've come with GFV sales, plus ?maybe? an uptick in last years 79% occupancy rate and future reservations, could be others.

And labor streaming is absolutely an expected expense net plus for Disney with the new system - from a long term liability perspective, as well. For example, you can come up with many scenarios where it might very well allow them to increase part-time vs. full-time employee percentages once they get solid trending data and can begin to adjust staffing schedules, manage and plan for hotspots more effectively, etc.

The only issue I see is how many extra CM's they will need to clean up after all of the migrating Caribou......

That's a great, but messy, visual btw.

the solid trending data has been coming in for decades. they have been studying caribou for years, long before magic bands. they can tell you what the caribou are going to do, how they are going to do it and how much there going to do from the time the caribou park there car, arrive on the bus, boat or monorail. they can tell you which door gets used more then another in a store. they are just making the caribou follow the rules of the jungle. they already know how many ranchers it takes to wrangle the caribou. they already know how many, where and the logistics of moving both caribou and ranchers.
with all the caribou playing by the rules of the jungle, it just makes the jungle easier to manage. with nearly 60 years of managing the jungle from caribou, ranchers, food, entertainment, none of this is new . it is an amazing machine to watch. the hardest part for the adventure is to figure out how the jungle is run without the adventure having all the info. (I wish I knew) it is fun trying to figure it out and I commend you on your work. its nice reading some logic instead of the bashing and name calling you often find on the boards. keep up the good work

 

[clsteve]

the solid trending data has been coming in for decades. they have been studying caribou for years, long before magic bands. they can tell you what the caribou are going to do, how they are going to do it and how much there going to do from the time the caribou park there car, arrive on the bus, boat or monorail. they can tell you which door gets used more then another in a store. they are just making the caribou follow the rules of the jungle. they already know how many ranchers it takes to wrangle the caribou. they already know how many, where and the logistics of moving both caribou and ranchers.
with all the caribou playing by the rules of the jungle, it just makes the jungle easier to manage. with nearly 60 years of managing the jungle from caribou, ranchers, food, entertainment, none of this is new . it is an amazing machine to watch. the hardest part for the adventure is to figure out how the jungle is run without the adventure having all the info. (I wish I knew) it is fun trying to figure it out and I commend you on your work. its nice reading some logic instead of the bashing and name calling you often find on the boards. keep up the good work

Sorry it's taken me awhile to check this thread. That little thing called"Hurricane Arthur" kind of got in my way. The eye went right over us (and yes that's an amazing experience at 3am: total calm with 110 mph winds on both sides) and we're just getting some semblance of normality back, and now have cycled power with 3 hours of it then 6 hours off again until Monday.

And, yes. It is a complex jungle, to say the least! And they do have reams of data collected over decades. That's one of the most interesting things about the new system and how they expect it to give them a much higher level of granularity so they can effect real time operational efficiency and expense savings.

Organizations can become over enamored with data. I've seen it over and over again - especially when they marry up with another entity like Accenture. It's very addictive to the C-level, once they get a taste of it. Unfortunately, the benefits always take longer to realize than the Powerpoints and CBA's predict it seems, as evidenced by the Operational costs and profitability hit to FY 2014. FY 2015 will be a much better gauge as to any operational net gains they're counting on and something we should get some feeling for since the analysts will be asking some very specific questions about it......

 

[Shaden]

Such an Interesting Thread and read. I wonder what peoples thoughts are a year later, looking at the tests for FP+ only rides, the fact that resorts are now offering the "Skip the front desk" option, etc.

I know I am necroing here, but really I wonder what a year has given us in perspective to this thread ?

 

[clsteve]

Such an Interesting Thread and read. I wonder what peoples thoughts are a year later, looking at the tests for FP+ only rides, the fact that resorts are now offering the "Skip the front desk" option, etc.

I know I am necroing here, but really I wonder what a year has given us in perspective to this thread ?

You know Shaden, I was thinking the same thing after reading the Fast Company article on NextGen. Since last June, what do we really have?

Avatar plugging along with a late '17 to early '18 open. Right in line with maximizing DAK's resources and headcount - yet, with a lower attraction list and minus the TS Restaurant everyone was excited for last June.

Closures and more closures! DHS with actually less in the capacity department - saving headcount costs ad infinitum until something is actually built. (Looking forward to the D23 announcement so we can start the 5 year pining for Star Wars).

Don't want to talk about EPCOT - too depressing. I mean, even that bastion of quality Captain EO looks like it's closing along with some of Innoventions

More DVC, with more on the way - locking guests in and decreasing headcount and opex - DVC'ers pay for upkeep and don't have mousekeeping and all that entails....

Outsourcing IT to India, along with layoffs.
​

And I know some will be along to say "But, look what's coming...!!" What? is the answer to that.

To be honest, I did the research and took a flyer on posting the premise for this thread. But, the data backed it up then, and it very much seems to now.....

 

[George4]

I know this is going to wander all over the place, but here it is anyways. My apologies in advance.......


While the analysis provided by CLSteve and others is well done and probably very accurate, there are some things that have been overlooked IMHO. First, people are concerned about the parks being maxed out, but they continue to fail to realize that the E-ticket rides are maxed out, and some of the family oriented B/C-ticket rides are maxed out. There are many attractions that have 5-15 minute waits for most of the year (yes, even in summer), they just aren't the "big ones". That part of the crowd is the part that Disney competes with Universal on. The thrill seekers. They are mostly interested in the next big thrill or doing only the big thrill's. And that's fine. But walking through many of these Orlando parks for better than 35 years, I can tell you that isn't the market Disney is worried about.

They keep some of those rides around, and will always in vest in one every few years because they become the marquee attractions that sell the location. However, it is the other attractions that keep the families and couples coming to the parks, and while the enjoy the big rides, they also enjoy the shows, the shops the atmosphere and the smaller rides. And those aren't at capacity outside of MK. HS, with all of it's attraction closings recently is probably near its current capacity for attendance, but it is still roughly 55% of MK attendance, and the park is almost the same physical size. If the choice is to build out the current parks or build a 5th gate, the 5th gate won't happen for decades. The start-up labor costs for tickets, brochures, information learned by all employee's, theme building, staffing all of the necessary things in a new park (stroller rentals, etc.) is just too overwhelming when there is still capacity in their current slate of parks.

EPCOT for crying out loud doesn't even hit 1/3 of capacity for the space it takes up, but Soarin and Test Track have ridiculous lines. The rest of the park is fairly empty really. Try going to some of the shows in the countries - they are basically 0 wait time for 90% of the year.

Can more be done with the current parks? Absolutely. I have been, and will continue to promote the idea that WDW is shooting itself in the foot with its current park offerings for future customers. People go and spend their money, but the number of people willing to be repeat customers is dwindling. The number of friends that I have that went once and vocally talk about how they will never go back due to the cost and the lines. Those are lost future customers, and potentially, so are their children. Running a destination park requires a constant short and long-term mentality and view on all decisions.

Is Disney raking in the money now? Absolutely. But they are going to have a problem in the future if they don't start creating a more even experience for their customers at all of their parks. MK is still the marquee park from an attendance and attractions perspective, and it isn't even close. If you want to spread people to the other parks, you have to make it worth it to them to go. They will never change the status, but they might get people to spread around their vacation time, or heaven forbid, get them to come back year after year to see the things they missed the first time around.

I agree with CLSteve that there is no 5th gate in the near future, and that the staffing of the parks is a staggering problem to deal with (lots of low wage jobs, very little in the way of high-wage counterparts). However, I think that augmenting what they are already offering to get people to see more attractions will also help to spread around the love to the other parks and may help people spend their money in a variety of new and different ways. There are only so many MK and Mickey shirts you can own, so you need to get people into other parks so that they can see what else is available - both in attractions but also products.

TDO needs to realize (and they may) that Universal is not their direct competition (they are a little bit, but let's move on for a moment). Their direct competition is their own future visitors. You can't leverage the idea of always just capturing the new visitor and never work towards cultivating a repeat customer. Some will always come back (like me), but there are a lot that don't. I would be curious to know (Disney probably knows) what percentage of their customers only come once or twice a generation versus those that come every 1-3 years. I would vie for the latter customer as I can maintain my resort destination with them over the long term. New visitors will stop coming at some point (due to price, lines, lack of new things, etc.). TDO needs a longer viewpoint in their decision making process for the parks. I think they have adopted a good idea with the hotels (DVC actually pays for the operation of the hotel up front with fee's, so there is no cost to TDO to have them operating on grounds). They can't only have DVC, but they seem to be working towards finding a balance between the two types.

 

[Castle2Castle]

I have been, and will continue to promote the idea that WDW is shooting itself in the foot with its current park offerings for future customers. People go and spend their money, but the number of people willing to be repeat customers is dwindling.

Just chiming in since it was fresh in my mind, but THIS ARTICLE (the subject of another News & Rumor post) suggests recommendations and intent to return has been increasing. FWIW.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Just chiming in since it was fresh in my mind, but THIS ARTICLE (the subject of another News & Rumor post) suggests recommendations and intent to return has been increasing. FWIW.

We picked that apart weeks ago...

I'd believe it if I subscribed to the theory that Disney internal data gathering/polling was required to be non directed/impartial and they have to 100% report just the facts with no spin...

But alas - I don't subscribe to that theory...

Mainly because it is not correct in any way.

 

[Castle2Castle]

Eh, there probably is some element of spin to all such reports, but that's not to say it isn't still true. Anecdotes and speculation aren't any more factual and seem contradicted by more objective reports of increased spending and attendance; present attendance isn't necessarily indicative of future trends, but it arguably skews more to the positive than the negative.

 

[jec6613]

Not too much to add, but by those numbers, sometime in 2007 WDW became the largest single site employer in US history, eclipsing Eastman Kodak's presence in Rochester in 1982 at 60,400, and at that point Kodak was running into the same problems that Disney is now - the talent pool just isn't deep enough.

 

[NavyDad]

We picked that apart weeks ago...

I'd believe it if I subscribed to the theory that Disney internal data gathering/polling was required to be non directed/impartial and they have to 100% report just the facts with no spin...

But alas - I don't subscribe to that theory...

Mainly because it is not correct in any way.

LOL - so basically you debunked it because you don't believe it and since you don't believe it - it is obviously not true. That kind of outlook makes things a lot simpler

My take on it is that in today's world the only truth is money. In terms of Disney and any large corporation "money" is basically shareholder value. I choose not to take take any public announcements or even leaks at face value since there is usually not a financial incentive to be 100% truthful - in fact usually there is financial incentive to be untruthful or at least put "spin" on anything.

IMO the only way you can really trust information in general is when it is from the execs to a board or from a company to it's shareholders because: ..... money

 

[lockedoutlogic]

LOL - so basically you debunked it because you don't believe it and since you don't believe it - it is obviously not true. That kind of outlook makes things a lot simpler

My take on it is that in today's world the only truth is money. In terms of Disney and any large corporation "money" is basically shareholder value. I choose not to take take any public announcements or even leaks at face value since there is usually not a financial incentive to be 100% truthful - in fact usually there is financial incentive to be untruthful or at least put "spin" on anything.

IMO the only way you can really trust information in general is when it is from the execs to a board or from a company to it's shareholders because: ..... money

Well...debunk is the wrong word...

I guess...cast doubt would have been better.

I actually agree with you on the cash...

But what I was referring to - ineffectively - was the ascertion that Disney quoting their research HAS to be fact because they quoted it...
And that if they do manipulate/squash/pump the results to their advantage...it's like and Enron or SEC foul or something.

That's ludicrous...you're not giving sworn testimony or the nuclear codes or anything...

Disney can find satisfaction/more business potential in ANY question they ask...thats the point.

And something can be 100% universally hated on a survey and we will never hear about it.

Most of the important data gathered that affects decisions/policy will never see anybody's eyes except on the higher levels.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Not too much to add, but by those numbers, sometime in 2007 WDW became the largest single site employer in US history, eclipsing Eastman Kodak's presence in Rochester in 1982 at 60,400, and at that point Kodak was running into the same problems that Disney is now - the talent pool just isn't deep enough.

Excellent...the fact is the "talent pool" was depleted long ago...and in order for Disney to increase the quality of their pool...they will have to increase pay greatly. That's not gonna happen.

The "last round" of openings in the late 90's really stretched the rope around the whole property.
Several massive hotels, blizzard beach, animal kingdom, the west side, and the support services attached.

Labor is huge...has been a problem for a long time in wdw.

And look for them to address it with more third party contracts and offerings as time goes. Maybe little ones - maybe huge ones...maybe both.

And labor control will be a huge part of the bands as time goes forward...that's a theory but I have little doubt.

 

[Douglas Dubh]

I remember pointing out on Disney message boards over 15 years ago that growth in Orlando would be constrained by available labor. At the time, I mentioned it to support the idea that a Disney resort in Texas made a good deal of sense.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I remember pointing out on Disney message boards over 15 years ago that growth in Orlando would be constrained by available labor. At the time, I mentioned it to support the idea that a Disney resort in Texas made a good deal of sense.

Indeed...I was "boots on ground" then...and one of the simmering issues behind the curtain was the complete abandonment of training proceedures, company history training, and hiring standards....that was mostly due to size

Training went down...no joking...probably 80-90%

Eisner was blamed ...I'm not sure that was fair. If anything...he was blamed for dreaming/buidling big in Orlando...and bloating the logistics.

Would anybody else like some of that now?

Don't agree on Texas...just...no.

Texans need to understand that the rest of us don't want too much of what you got...

No offense to Texas...but it's fine without constantly preaching that it's the greatest desert on earth...

Leave that to Vegas and Dubai

 

[Douglas Dubh]

If Disney ever wanted to open another resort in the U.S., Texas makes the most sense. It's centrally located between the two existing resorts, and if they built it about an hour north west of Houston it would be easily reached from there, Austin, and San Antonio. Plus Dallas isn't too far away, so lots of population to draw from. And they could move a boat to Houston and do gulf cruises.

 

[jec6613]

If Disney ever wanted to open another resort in the U.S., Texas makes the most sense. It's centrally located between the two existing resorts, and if they built it about an hour north west of Houston it would be easily reached from there, Austin, and San Antonio. Plus Dallas isn't too far away, so lots of population to draw from. And they could move a boat to Houston and do gulf cruises.

Texas is centrally located, usually has good weather, and is within the restriction radii of both LGA and DCA ... but once you take the weather out of the equation, Minneapolis is the proper location. DFW and DAL are both already overloaded as it is by their use as an airline hub, and although you have the 4th largest population center in the US in Dallas, that's still not enough to really bring people.

Minneapolis has a 50% larger labor force than Orlando with a higher percentage of skilled labor and better income levels to spend money at the parks, large amounts of land to build on, an airport hub with room to expand to handle the traffic, and it can offer something different than DLR and WDW (for one thing, real snow). Oh, and Minnesota is very open to things like direct to airport trains.

 

[rteetz]

Texas is centrally located, usually has good weather, and is within the restriction radii of both LGA and DCA ... but once you take the weather out of the equation, Minneapolis is the proper location. DFW and DAL are both already overloaded as it is by their use as an airline hub, and although you have the 4th largest population center in the US in Dallas, that's still not enough to really bring people.

Minneapolis has a 50% larger labor force than Orlando with a higher percentage of skilled labor and better income levels to spend money at the parks, large amounts of land to build on, an airport hub with room to expand to handle the traffic, and it can offer something different than DLR and WDW (for one thing, real snow). Oh, and Minnesota is very open to things like direct to airport trains.

I think the Midwest would be a nice place for something disney but weather just ruins it. I don't see disney building any brand new domestic resorts anytime soon. Internationally they are and will continue to invest in.