White_Sox_Fan
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2007
- Messages
- 577
1. Changing total points: They cannot change total points per year. That includes that they are not allowed to have some minor variance from year to year because of timing of weekends and leap year as suggested above. The official documents state that they determine total points based a hypothetical 365 day year having a usual number of weekends both annually and per season. That rules out having annual differences because of actual number of weekend days in any given season and year or for leap year. In other words, those new point totals have to be exactly the same as before and they cannot even vary by 1. Someone noted that possibly they could be 1 less and thus it would be proper to do it. No, they cannot be 1 less because that would mean that resort is now illegally oversold by that 1 point. However, trying to add points up based on the the old and new charts is not going to provide an answer to whether total points have changed. This is because of the 2BR lock-offs. In determining total points to be sold in relation to those they did not count them all as 2BR lock-offs or all as 1BR and studio (for which combined the points needed to reserve are higher than as a 2BR lock-off). They did, and were allowed to do, a reasonable estimate before starting sales as to likely demand for those lock-offs as 2BRs and likely demand as 1BRs and studios and then sell total points based on that estimate. The point charts cannot tell you what the difference is between estimated use as 2BRs versus 1BRs and studios that was originally used to determine total points and, without knowing that, you cannot do calculations from the existing charts to see if total points have changed. I would guess they were careful not to change total points.
I do not see how this is the case. Obviously the total points available per year CAN vary because of weekends, and absolutely vary when there is a leap year. The 2008/2009 point charts were exactly the same with the exception of the the addition of Feb 29th in 2008 so there definately were more points available for booking in 2008. I belive when you stated total points are based on a hypothetical 365 day year that this is total points available for sale, not total points available for booking each year. Also, as you stated, a reasonable estimate is used for the lock-off units which effects the calculation is a way for which I could not account. The calulation I did was to reaffirm that the reallocation was not entirely out of whack.
FWIW, I went back and found that I had an error in the spreadsheet that was calculating the total amount of unit days available based on the 2009 calendar and not 2010. When I fixed it the total change in points was 9,360 or 0.062%. I would consider this statistically insignificant. If I knew what percentage of lock-offs were calculated as two bedrooms the number would drop again.