Disney Set To Announce Ambitious Star Wars Theme Park

[lockedoutlogic]

I see one anchor attraction in each land. An E-Ticket and a D-Ticket in Star Wars Land, and an E-Ticket and several B and C-Tickets for Pixar Land. I think they'll need those big cap rides in each land that can absorb several thousand people per hour. They're big franchises and they may as well make two solid attractions especially with that budget.

What "e ticket" would you expect from Pixar? As near as I can tell - they've only built one in California and I can't see a conceivable way they clone that...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Interesting, and not what I was expecting. RSRs at DCA is crucial in drawing people into that part of the park and then people explore and find the other attractions. In the same way I was expecting the Pixar land to have a draw like that. I wonder how they're going to spend the money if not like that. The entire Hong Kong Toy Story Land with which many rides are said to be cloned, was built within one 500 million dollar budget. I wonder how they're going to blow it.

Ahhh...you're falling into the trap...

They won't "blow it"...they'll announce a $900 million dollar "overhaul"...stretch it out for five years...and slash down the budget on a flimsy market excuse at some point.

Fantasyland was originally quoted at what? 725 mil?

Final budget - I've seen as low as 400...but 450 is mentioned more.

They got ripped at $450 ...to be honest...one junior coaster, a restaurant and a couple clones...

I don't buy any "major" project at MGM until I see one...one ride at a time every 5 years is all they've ever done

 

[DDLand]

What "e ticket" would you expect from Pixar? As near as I can tell - they've only built one in California and I can't see a conceivable way they clone that...

Who knows, that's for Disney to come up with...

All I was saying is it would act as an effective anchor to the area to have a high quality high cap ride.

 

[DDLand]

Ahhh...you're falling into the trap...

They won't "blow it"...they'll announce a $900 million dollar "overhaul"...stretch it out for five years...and slash down the budget on a flimsy market excuse at some point.

Fantasyland was originally quoted at what? 725 mil?

Final budget - I've seen as low as 400...but 450 is mentioned more.

They got ripped at $450 ...to be honest...one junior coaster, a restaurant and a couple clones...

I don't buy any "major" project at MGM until I see one...one ride at a time every 5 years is all they've ever done

Of course I could point out HKD which ended up with two excellent attractions. There's as much historical precedent to trust the budgets they put out as to there is to discredit them. I feel like this has the potential to be enormous if they play their cards right. You'll probably argue that they won't, but DCA and HKD fly in the face of that argument. Give them the benefit of the doubt, (you'll say you have) Disney has done impressive things with park revitalization over the last several years. I don't think they'll trip now.

Tell me if I'm wrong, but they didn't slash anything from NF right? Didn't they add onto the project with Mine Train? The loss of 200 million+ dollars would have enormous effects on the project, but at least compared to the initial press release we ended up with the same attractions and in some cases better.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Of course I could point out HKD which ended up with two excellent attractions. There's as much historical precedent to trust the budgets they put out as to there is to discredit them. I feel like this has the potential to be enormous if they play their cards right. You'll probably argue that they won't, but DCA and HKD fly in the face of that argument. Give them the benefit of the doubt, (you'll say you have) Disney has done impressive things with park revitalization over the last several years. I don't think they'll trip now.

Tell me if I'm wrong, but they didn't slash anything from NF right? Didn't they add onto the project with Mine Train? The loss of 200 million+ dollars would have enormous effects on the project, but at least compared to the initial press release we ended up with the same attractions and in some cases better.

No...they actually downsized the project...then reportedly added the mine train.

What I do know is that nobody has denied the budget slash...

And...not to nitpick...but who pays the bills in Hong Kong?
That is a major factor that can't be denied...

 

[DDLand]

No...they actually downsized the project...then reportedly added the mine train.

What I do know is that nobody has denied the budget slash...

And...not to nitpick...but who pays the bills in Hong Kong?
That is a major factor that can't be denied...

Those plans never saw light of day in any Disney related press? 2009 in context was a time internally shrinking a project before telling the public was appropriate with the poor performance of the tourist market. They then added features to it after announcement as the economy recovered. Logical thinking. Today, P&R is in a different position at all time highs. The momentum is in DHS's direction.

HKD's bills are paid by it's owner a company jointly owned by HK and Disney. Since they began to make a profit, it has been able to pay its bills completely independently with profit for its investors on the side. If you're referring to the financing of the new attractions that turned around the HKD, that was completely financed by Disney.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

If you're referring to the financing of the new attractions that turned around the HKD, that was completely financed by Disney.

I had not seen that. It would be "a first" for parks on Asian soil.
Especially those in china...where they have forced these parks to a level we have not seen...
Like its about more than selling dole whip...

 

[DDLand]

I had not seen that. It would be "a first" for parks on Asian soil.
Especially those in china...where they have forced these parks to a level we have not seen...
Like its about more than selling dole whip...

Here's an article from 2009 announcing the plans.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/06/30/disney-hongkong-idUSHKG5332920090630

They are going crazy with some of the SDL stuff. Pirates looks amazing!

 

[rteetz]

Interesting, and not what I was expecting. RSRs at DCA is crucial in drawing people into that part of the park and then people explore and find the other attractions. In the same way I was expecting the Pixar land to have a draw like that. I wonder how they're going to spend the money if not like that. The entire Hong Kong Toy Story Land with which many rides are said to be cloned, was built within one 500 million dollar budget. I wonder how they're going to blow it.

Well 500 mil for you story rides, 500+ mil for Star Wars and then other park enhancements like DCA got that's well over 1 billion

 

[rteetz]

Ahhh...you're falling into the trap...

They won't "blow it"...they'll announce a $900 million dollar "overhaul"...stretch it out for five years...and slash down the budget on a flimsy market excuse at some point.

Fantasyland was originally quoted at what? 725 mil?

Final budget - I've seen as low as 400...but 450 is mentioned more.

They got ripped at $450 ...to be honest...one junior coaster, a restaurant and a couple clones...

I don't buy any "major" project at MGM until I see one...one ride at a time every 5 years is all they've ever done

Mermaid cost 100 million alone

 

[clsteve]

Once again, the end cost will still be greater in the long run. Any savings gained by the backlot tour closure would be marginal at best. Compared to the massive expenditures incurred by building up a major rides and attractions they're not even in the same ballpark. The end goal is to create a significant draw to DHS similar in size to DCA. So far attendance at DCA has increased by something like 3 million and there's massive upside to that still. That's the type of ROI Disney wants out of DHS.

Well, I'm glad somebody knows what their end goal is - create a significant draw to DHS similar in size to DCA. Hadn't seen that one from them, yet.

I hope you're right. MGM/DHS is my 2nd favorite park behind Epcot. I always seemed to be able to have a good time there - single, then dating, then married, then married with kids. I've always loved the vibe. Still miss some of the old shows, still enjoy the Brown Derby, still think ToT is the only stateside ride that holds up to what some others are doing lately.

Just don't fall down that slippery slope of comparing "massive" (and long term depreciable) end cost CapEx expenditures with YtY OpEx, HC, payroll liabilities, etc. It's really not how they or an C-level team thinks or are compensated these days.

And really, you don't have to believe a word I'm saying. Just timeline what you're presenting against the already running Parks capital project that is Avatar. Maybe they will kick off a massive SW Project concurrently with it. That is really kick it off hardhats, cranes, foundation pouring- not just closures, artwork and models......

Or maybe, they'll have the SW dog and pony, that follows the same script as the NFL and Avatar d and p's, with the post 2020 delivery that's most realistic.... with the Toy Story/Pixar playground as a stopgap in between

 

[DDLand]

Well, I'm glad somebody knows what their end goal is - create a significant draw to DHS similar in size to DCA. Hadn't seen that one from them, yet.

I hope you're right. MGM/DHS is my 2nd favorite park behind Epcot. I always seemed to be able to have a good time there - single, then dating, then married, then married with kids. I've always loved the vibe. Still miss some of the old shows, still enjoy the Brown Derby, still think ToT is the only stateside ride that holds up to what some others are doing lately.

Just don't fall down that slippery slope of comparing "massive" (and long term depreciable) end cost CapEx expenditures with YtY OpEx, HC, payroll liabilities, etc. It's really not how they or an C-level team thinks or are compensated these days.

And really, you don't have to believe a word I'm saying. Just timeline what you're presenting against the already running Parks capital project that is Avatar. Maybe they will kick off a massive SW Project concurrently with it. That is really kick it off hardhats, cranes, foundation pouring- not just closures, artwork and models......

Or maybe, they'll have the SW dog and pony, that follows the same script as the NFL and Avatar d and p's, with the post 2020 delivery that's most realistic.... with the Toy Story/Pixar playground as a stopgap in between

I'm operating under the perhaps false notion that it will have a similar budget to that of DCA. If it does then what other project could it be then something of that caliber? The board will look at what 1 billion+ bought them in DCA which is 3 million more guests per year (though I've seen it said DCA could break past 10,000,000.) and ask if there will be similar results. They'll also ask the guy pitching the project if their 1 billion can be better spent elsewhere. If not to increase attendance, I can't see why a single board member would vote in favor.

Now what you seem to be worried about (I believe rightly so) that Disney will just dump the whole project or majorly cut it back. That's a completely different conversation then the one I was discussing. I think I missed your point. Apologies. Whereas I was simply trying to determine and justify Disney's choice to spend 1 billion+ on DHS, you were questioning whether they would do it at all. Will they? I think it fits their slow meticulous way of fixing or enhancing parks. Choosing the worst ones to do first and working their way up. I also think that there's serious value locked up in these major Cap Ex improvements at DHS that can seriously bolster their position.

Most importantly Rumors point to it being true.

However as you have pointed out accurately, Disney has lost its determination on multiple occasions before. It's expensive, risky, and capital draining.

We'll just have to see when it's announced...

 

[DDLand]

Mermaid cost 100 million alone

Whoa, that's unbelievable.

 

[DDLand]

Well 500 mil for you story rides, 500+ mil for Star Wars and then other park enhancements like DCA got that's well over 1 billion

Sorry, I was distracted when writing that round of replies. The 500 million covered Toy Story Land, Grizzly Gulch, and Mystic Manner.

Keeping in mind labor and materials should be considerbly cheaper here then in HK, the Pixar Land Spinners and other rides certainly shouldn't break the bank. It could leave the door open for Dark rides or an e-ticket with another 500 mil for Star Wars.

 

[shanethesaint88]

I definetly think that Star Wars expansion in Hollywood Studios is pretty much guaranteed. However, I cannot get really excited for this...yet. Don't get me wrong I am huge star wars fan. But I just cant get excited for something that is 3+ years out. Plus Bob Iger has said that they are gonna focus on the new movies for this "Star Wars Land" and that kind of worries me. What if the new movies aren't good? What if they are as bad as the prequels lol

 

[anthony2k7]

They could be with Star Wars. I hope not but you never know especially since this is going to be a global presence and we know where the money is going there.

Well, the Paris part of the plan seems to consist of just (finally) upgrading star tours to v2.

So that is probably a good indicator of just how little a lot of this Star Wars presence around the world will be.

 

[rteetz]

Well, the Paris part of the plan seems to consist of just (finally) upgrading star tours to v2.

So that is probably a good indicator of just how little a lot of this Star Wars presence around the world will be.

Well park is getting a lot of other things so that doesn't surprise me there. I expect Tokyo, Hk, and Shanghai to get more.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Mermaid cost 100 million alone

That's a clone...they have a habit of quoting "development" costs that don't truly apply to clones...to make themselves look all benevolent

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I definetly think that Star Wars expansion in Hollywood Studios is pretty much guaranteed. However, I cannot get really excited for this...yet. Don't get me wrong I am huge star wars fan. But I just cant get excited for something that is 3+ years out. Plus Bob Iger has said that they are gonna focus on the new movies for this "Star Wars Land" and that kind of worries me. What if the new movies aren't good? What if they are as bad as the prequels lol

I can't figure this out either...it's not even about tie ins or merchandise...

I think it's Iger's vanity... Wanted what "he was in charge of"

If you gave the people what they want...the original
Movies right now... And leave expansion for something from the new movies if they hit big...

It's safer longterm

 

[Monykalyn]

Thanks for an entertaining discussion! Just wondering: does the $1B include the fabled third (and last) monorail loop? This was a rumor from my CP days (loong time ago in a far different Disney universe). As a diehard Disney fan-gotta say USF had it all over Disney 13 years ago-and can not wait to see the new WWoHP this summer. So how come USF can have 2! major new areas come to completion in 7 years yet Disney takes forever to get (relatively) minor stuff done? (Mine train had beautiful theming but was seriously underwhelming for the hype around it) Someone at disney needs to get some brass ones and build something to actually live up to the hype and continue to rest on laurels (which are decaying away). Was sad to see how much Epcot had declined our last trip (granted our trips have been pretty spread out).
And regarding the employment pool-the college program is larger than ever-cheap wages, short term employees (charge large amount for housing) and continually refreshed pool of applicants...