Disney Q4 and Full Year Earnings for 2020

[hertamaniac]

Me neither.

Cases back above 10000 per day in FL a week before many families will have non socially distance get togethers.

Plus cases rising rapidly in Japan.

I wouldnt be at all surprised if wdw or Tokyo disneyland closed down again for a while in January.

I'm not saying its going to happen, just that I won't be surprised if it does.

The Mayor looked a little dejected at his presser.

"I said at the beginning of the week, we would likely surpass 50,000 positive cases within Orange County this week, and we have," Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said.

That being said, the tourism stock prices continue to amaze me. The valuation appears to be on speculation for years from now and doesn't represent shorter term.

 

[tlmadden73]

It’s due to the Moderna vaccine trial results this morning.

Understand . the stock market is a lot about speculation .. but still, I would think that everyone knows it will be a long while before a vaccine "saves" us and there will be storm before the calm.

I would think the news about a Michigan lockdown (which inevitably will trickle to nearby states) would temper "hopes" in a tourism recovery. Locking down again, (while arguably even more necessary than it was in March/April/May) .. will crush the tourism industry even harder ... because now people will start to lose more jobs/businesses that were just coming back .. meaning they will have no disposable income to go on vacation even IF Florida stays open.

 

[rteetz]

Understand . the stock market is a lot about speculation .. but still, I would think that everyone knows it will be a long while before a vaccine "saves" us and there will be storm before the calm.

I would think the news about a Michigan lockdown (which inevitably will trickle to nearby states) would temper "hopes" in a tourism recovery. Locking down again, (while arguably even more necessary than it was in March/April/May) .. will crush the tourism industry even harder ... because now people will start to lose more jobs/businesses that were just coming back .. meaning they will have no disposable income to go on vacation even IF Florida stays open.

There are a lot of factors. Not that we really should get into it here but the Michigan "lockdown" isn't a full lockdown. As for other states that really depends on each state, their governors, and laws. Florida as we know has no plans to lock down.

 

[RivShore]

I guess I don't understand the stock market's optimism in Disney right now - the stock is now up another 4% today -- at pre-COVID levels, but not quite at its all time high.

This is a stock that hasn't given a dividend for almost a year now and has a huge portion of its business just simply not running.

Crazy .. but .. that's why I am NOT a huge stock investor. What do I know? heh.

They say the market is forward looking and in this case very forward looking. Its looking out to next winter when most of the experts think we will be entering an almost normal phase. And don't forget that, even though unemployment keeps taking it's toll on household assets, savings rates are at the highest they have been in decades probably due to all those cancelled vacations and dinners out. Once the "all clear" happens, the assumption is a lot of that savings gets spent on delayed vacations.

And D+ has really set a floor on the stock at just the right time. Without it, DIS stock would look more like AMC, 6 Flags, the cruise lines and the airlines.

Speaking of - a bit of a deep dive into D+:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

[RivShore]

Which are completely meaningless until we know how long the immunity lasts.

I think it was a Pfizer exec who recently said they expect at least 9 months to a year from their vaccine.

 

[CastAStone]

I guess I don't understand the stock market's optimism in Disney right now - the stock is now up another 4% today -- at pre-COVID levels, but not quite at its all time high.

This is a stock that hasn't given a dividend for almost a year now and has a huge portion of its business just simply not running.

Crazy .. but .. that's why I am NOT a huge stock investor. What do I know? heh.

I agree. It popped because of Moderna, sure, but how anyone can look at TWDC and think it’s worth almost as much as it was pre-Covid is beyond me. Disney+ being a home run was evident before Covid, so that’s not it either.

The parks will have a pop after they reopen in full but the medium term will probably be soft and the long term is at risk due to suspending investments.

Cable is doing well but worse than expected. Same with broadcast.

Movies have a ton of risk ahead of them

So how are we nearly back to even on the value?

 

[RivShore]

Some interesting articles on Q4 and the future:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/17/why-disney-could-be-the-biggest-vaccine-winner/
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/17/disney-will-try-more-releases-like-mulan/