Disney Posts Record 1st Quarter Results

[DDLand]

That's great their international they should be but you can't neglect the your domestic parks. Shanghai is the future but you still have a future at WDW and DL.

Yes they have no problem with people coming but that really is the problem. There used to be dead times of the year at Disney now there isn't. Every time is busy. This means they need expansion they need more things to do to disperse the crowds.

Build more and even more people will come and you get even more record profit and attendance. You can't tell me Disney doesn't want more people in their parks this is an easy way to do it.

I don't feel I was able to do less before MyMagic+ I'd say it's about the same and I wasnt a big FP user before the new system. I like to think many would agree with me on that point. Now that may be true with new time guests but how would they know because they are new.

You and I have hashed out the noble justifications of both sides extensively. I don't want a repeat of the other thread. Lol

What I would say is you have a different view on what's best then does Disney does. Looking at the economics of it, Disney has all the incentive in the world to cram in as many people into the parks as possible. (as long as the firemarshall doesn't start giving them fines for safety violations) This saves money on ride operation as well as keeps them from having to build up multiple areas that will not be seen by the majority of guests. There's also a basic number of staff required to operate any theme park area to keep in mind as well.

The lessons were learned during the DAK debacle. Don't open a lot of less visited attractions, open a few rides in existing high guest areas. NF is an example of this strategy at work.

Dead times= money on the table

The things you said are valid; they just weren't as pressing as DCA, SDL, and HKD. We at least know that they're working on DAK and maybe hopefully something at DHS. Those two parks represent money on the table in their own right. It's just less money then 300,000,000 Chinese tourists buying Disney souvenirs.

 

[DDLand]

I gotta ask...and I'm trying to be fair here...but this is now coming up as a popular "Iger knows best" refrain - but what in the hell does building a... Cough...5 billion dollar money pit in china have to do with any of us?

No benefit...not now or later. It's not as though they are gonna build a Death Star in the backlot of studios with yuan...

If you're gonna take the "ha ha...I know business and business is always right" tact...
I'm gonna counter with "common sense is not so common" realist approach.

They're burning through cash in Paris and china...and that just isn't gonna yield anything good for us east coast profit pack mules

It doesn't help us. Plain and simple. (At least not for two decades of more would be my personal guess) I've never claimed that in my dream world Disney would be going after 100's of millions of Chinese tourists over us. They are though, and looking at it logically it makes sense business wise and most importantly keeping WDC healthy. I don't have resentment towards them or him, he's doing his job. Frankly if I owned Disneyland and Walt Disney World I'd pour all the profits back into those properties. However, it would be an incredibly stupid emotional decision.


Now would I choose Iger and his mangament team of the horrible Eisner? Yep!

 

[DDLand]

Bingo. All this profit and the U.S. isn't getting anything really. Disney doesn't fully own Shanghai so they will make profit but not as much as they will from WDW and DL which are their biggest money makers. Why not invest in them.

Imagine a group of people the size of the entire US population quickly entering the middle class...

That's why.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Since I no longer have access to the real data...

In wound say that 9% is concentrated heavily in a
Few spots...

And those spots are rack at animal
Kingdom lodge, wilderness, and sprinkle at the other deluxes. Holes in the moderates and values have always been more
Or less statistically insignificant. They don't typically carry any empty rooms in busy periods.

Remember that values and mods represent about 75% of the rack...if I recall. Strip DVC out and it's a higher number in real terms. You can have a pretty big problem and have it only be 9%. Math is comprised of knowns and unknowns... We don't know what's included in the variables here.

Why are the deluxes not filled? They supremely overpriced them....for starters. Wilderness lodge has risen by over 125% in 15 years...apparently inflation is worse on bay lake then it is on the 7 Seas...not by much though. They don't cater to the international travelers at all...and the "middle class" that used to splurge on them (particularly like Wildeness lodge) are paying the same for Caribbean as they did for wilderness lodge 10
Years ago. There's been no increase in earnings for the vast majority of people on this space rock for decades. The money is going "shorter" than it used to.
They've also "lost" deluxe customers to DVC...so more of a "shift".

So that 9% could and likely is a bigger deal than they say. You'll know if I'm right if they start gutting deluxes for DVC retrofits... Kinda like they've done twice in the last 10 years?

And they have no laws to tell them how to manipulate their figures on this point...89% includes a 100% of DVC rooms...a growing fully booked portion of the property The point pool is so bloated that rarely does a room not get booked. I would bet the farm on that. DVC is included in this number to instill confidence...and separated out when it suits them to pursue a different agenda.

Bookings are slow this spring... I've been watching availability, flight prices, all that stuff (I'm like the rain man of Conde Nast)...lets see where the numbers go. Watch the euro, pound, real, peso and Canadian dollar too as compared to the presidents...
That is where a big dip in business for wdw is coming... If not already here. Probably already here... As I have Canadian contacts that have tied off travel to the US. It's just not a good deal for them and they're far more disciplined than my homies here in the Jois...

You know where they are going now? An island not far from the keys...better deal.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Those Chinese parks are about sweatshop trade deals...not a "vibrant emerging middle class"

That's what it's about for the Chinese...with wishful thinking pills employed...but for Disney it's walmart aisles 1-13.

The West doesn't buy the Chinese longterm... Including the Walt Disney board.

They have 5 times more people than they can support and little natural resources.

So unless they starting shipping Solent green to the states in mass quantities...they're not gonna evolve in the worlds uberpower.

 

[rteetz]

It doesn't help us. Plain and simple. (At least not for two decades of more would be my personal guess) I've never claimed that in my dream world Disney would be going after 100's of millions of Chinese tourists over us. They are though, and looking at it logically it makes sense business wise and most importantly keeping WDC healthy. I don't have resentment towards them or him, he's doing his job. Frankly if I owned Disneyland and Walt Disney World I'd pour all the profits back into those properties. However, it would be an incredibly stupid emotional decision.


Now would I choose Iger and his mangament team of the horrible Eisner? Yep!

But Disney has the money to do both money overseas and money in the U.S. that's my argument why can't they do both. They make a ton of money off of WDW and DL. In order to make even greater profits you invest in them that's how theme parks work. Invest in them and even more money will be brought in unless of course you do it stupidly like DCA 1.0. Expanding the parks is only going to bring in more people which means more money I don't see how this is a bad things. I'm also not saying Shanghai is a bad thing because it isn't.

 

[seascapemvy]

Disney has to start a major expansion at WDW. First when a company has hotel occupancy over 80 percent anything additional is almost pure profit and when it gets close to 90 percent it is time to plan for expansion. Just 3 percent growth per year will now require just under 1500 rooms a year. That means in 6 years for the 50th they will need 10000 more hotel rooms on property. Also with growth in park attendance a 5th gate is needed.

As stated last night they had many days with over 250000 guests in the parks and attendance was up 7 percent in the quarter. Given 2013's 50 million attendance 2014 should be about 53 million. Even growing that at just 3 percent per year would Result in 63.25 million in attendance in 2021. The parks cant handle that. Plus if they added a 5th gate and expanded DHS, Epcot and AK they could gain even more by keeping more of the customers rather than their going to the other parks. In fact WDW should have attendance of over 75 million in 2021.

If Iger wanted to insure his reputation and place in history he would spend the 13 billion needed for this expansion. It is not that much money. 3 to 4 billion for the 5th gate. 3 billion for expansion of DHS. 1 billion for Epcot and another 2 to 3 billion for AK. The 10000 hotel rooms plus more DVC rooms would be the balance of the 13 billion. This sound like a lot of money but its only 2 billion a year and parks and resorts make much more than that and is before Shanghai opens.

The time is now. The profits are there to pay for it. All that is needed is the simple vote to spend the money they have. They dont even need to borrow it. It can be paid out of current profits.

 

[MrInfinity]

But Disney has the money to do both money overseas and money in the U.S. that's my argument why can't they do both. They make a ton of money off of WDW and DL. In order to make even greater profits you invest in them that's how theme parks work. Invest in them and even more money will be brought in unless of course you do it stupidly like DCA 1.0. Expanding the parks is only going to bring in more people which means more money I don't see how this is a bad things. I'm also not saying Shanghai is a bad thing because it isn't.

Do you feel they're not doing both?
MK just got a huge renovation -- around a quarter of the park rebuilt from ground up.
AK is getting a similar renovation -- whole corner getting an entirely new land.
HS is announced an even bigger project which everyone is anxious for.
EC hasn't gotten much love, admitted. Frozen reno, and several empty pavilions... but
Epcot was insanely crowded every day we were there.
MM+ another big reinvestment.
Even on the left coast, DCA got a huge renovation.

Read the construction boards. People are furious that there is construction everywhere. MK. Poly. AK. Epcot. Castle. Hub.

So much has happened in the last 5 years, and there is a lot planned for the next 5. This is just stateside.
HK, Shanghai aren't a big concern to me, cuz I'll never hit them up, but I see them as a natural place for Disney to grow.

 

[rteetz]

Do you feel they're not doing both?
MK just got a huge renovation -- around a quarter of the park rebuilt from ground up.
AK is getting a similar renovation -- whole corner getting an entirely new land.
HS is announced an even bigger project which everyone is anxious for.
EC hasn't gotten much love, admitted. Frozen reno, and several empty pavilions... but
Epcot was insanely crowded every day we were there.
MM+ another big reinvestment.
Even on the left coast, DCA got a huge renovation.

Read the construction boards. People are furious that there is construction everywhere. MK. Poly. AK. Epcot. Castle. Hub.

So much has happened in the last 5 years, and there is a lot planned for the next 5. This is just stateside.
HK, Shanghai aren't a big concern to me, cuz I'll never hit them up, but I see them as a natural place for Disney to grow.

Did I miss something? When did DHS announce an expansion? Rumors yes and it's obvious something will happen but when.

MK could use even more that park is more crowded than ever. Explains why they won't take attractions down for needed refurbs. I wouldn't call NFL a big expansion. They brought a much needed restaurant and they could still use at least one more. A decent mine train ride. Doubled dumbo and cloned mermaid from DCA.
Epcot needs something as well.
AK I think will be pretty good after this upcoming expansion.

DCA got the renovation because it had to it was failing.

Are we in a time that Disney needs to start looking at a fifth park? I think so.

I agree that China is a natural place for Disney to invest I'm not opposed to them doing so.

 

[rteetz]

I found some numbers regarding the hotels.
Disney reported 23,000 rooms and 3,000 DVC units.
WDW total hotel capacity can't really go over that 91% mark.
Disney does not include campsites in their numbers.
Disneyland resort hotel occupancy has never been under 80% ever.
Major refurbs happened with rooms out of service at various times last year at BW, BC, Poly, WLV, CBR. That means hundreds of rooms were out of service which helps the occupancy rate.

 

[Reddog1134]

There's a commercial on the radio for a law firm (i don't know if they are national or local). In the commercial they say "If the goal of your business is to make money, you will fail. If the goal of your business is your customers, you will make money."

In the past, Disney seemed to be about customer satisfaction which resulted in them making money. Now they seem more like they want to make money despite their customers.

I think the point that people like Rteetz are making is that if Disney continues along their current path, they will be "Disney" in name only.

 

[rteetz]

There's a commercial on the radio for a law firm (i don't know if they are national or local). In the commercial they say "If the goal of your business is to make money, you will fail. If the goal of your business is your customers, you will make money."

In the past, Disney seemed to be about customer satisfaction which resulted in them making money. Now they seem more like they want to make money despite their customers.

I think the point that people like Rteetz are making is that if Disney continues along their current path, they will be "Disney" in name only.

Exactly my point.

 

[rteetz]

Here are some more numbers to compare.

Six Flags reported in 2013 that they would spend 9% of capital expenditures during 2014.

From 1973 until 2005. Disney averaged 21.3% of domestic P&R revenue on capital domestic expenditures.

From 2006 to 2014. Disney averaged 13.3% of domestic P&R revenue on capital domestic expenditures.

Disney reported 7.4% in the last quarter...

 

[ThurlFan]

523pm ET: Next question asks about benefits of MyMagic+. Bob says they’ve gotten excelled guest feedback; says they’ve getting to experience more.

Let me put on my curmudgeon hat and point out that if he's relying on guest surveys for this statement then it would be accurate to say that guests 'perceive' they are getting to experience more. I know when we went in November we actually experienced less than under the legacy FP system - mainly because they've done something about the ~50% of guests who never used it in the past.

And this is as much about the general population as it is about Disney, but I think it's really sad that they had to drop $1B+ to stupid-proof the fastpass concept, and all but beat people over the head to get them to use it.

But I guess in the end perception is reality so if people are leaving happier it's all good. Right?

 

[Reddog1134]

Let me put on my curmudgeon hat and point out that if he's relying on guest surveys for this statement then it would be accurate to say that guests 'perceive' they are getting to experience more. I know when we went in November we actually experienced less than under the legacy FP system - mainly because they've done something about the ~50% of guests who never used it in the past.

And this is as much about the general population as it is about Disney, but I think it's really sad that they had to drop $1B+ to stupid-proof the fastpass concept, and all but beat people over the head to get them to use it.

But I guess in the end perception is reality so if people are leaving happier it's all good. Right?

They ARE experiencing more. Which is why YOU are experiencing less. You said it yourself, they did something about the guests that weren't using FP before.

 

[Reddog1134]

All those people that used to meander through the park are now standing in line for rides because they have a "reservation".

 

[circus4u]

Bingo. All this profit and the U.S. isn't getting anything really. Disney doesn't fully own Shanghai so they will make profit but not as much as they will from WDW and DL which are their biggest money makers. Why not invest in them.

World's most populated city: Shanghai
At a whopping 24,150,000 permanent inhabitants, Shanghai is the single city that is home to the most people in the world.

 

[rteetz]

World's most populated city: Shanghai
At a whopping 24,150,000 permanent inhabitants, Shanghai is the single city that is home to the most people in the world.

So your point is? I never said they shouldn't build a park there I'm definitely not against it and I understand why they are doing it.

 

[circus4u]

No, no. Just trying to show that with its population, Shanghai seems to be a good location and even though Disney doesn't fully own the park, I would think that they should make a pretty good profit off of it. Wasn't trying to be critical or anything. Sorry about the confusion.

 

[rteetz]

No, no. Just trying to show that with its population, Shanghai seems to be a good location and even though Disney doesn't fully own the park, I would think that they should make a pretty good profit off of it. Wasn't trying to be critical or anything. Sorry about the confusion.

Ok thanks