There's so much going on with this announcement -- some good, some bad, depending on what type of guest you are and what you value. Here's my attempt to dissect the good and bad of the changes:
Shift from 60/30-day booking window to day-of booking
The 60/30-day booking window allowed the savviest of us to snag great FP opportunities, but at the expense of less savvy guests. As an on-site über-planner this change hurts me, but I also get wanting to tilt the scales to the benefit of newer or less savvy guests. Plus, even when I gain an advantage from the system, having to plan every day two months in advance is a real pain.
Good for: less savvy guests; anybody who doesn't want to plan their day months in advance; off-site guests (including locals/APs)
Bad for: savvy on-site guests
Shift from 3 passes/ticket to 1 at a time
As with the item above, the goal here is to increase the availability of LLPs for guests who show up for the day and learn about the system for the first time. With savvy guests snagging 3 FPs months in advance, there wasn't much left day-of. But with passes booked one at a time, there should be greater availability for those who pay for the system.
Good for: casual guests; greater LLP availability throughout the day
Bad for: savviest on-site guests who previously snagged all the good rides
$15/person/day up-charge
Just how good/bad this is really depends on how many people use the option. There is this weird dynamic where as more people purchase it, it becomes less valuable (compared to the old status quo) but more necessary.
- If only 10% of guests pay for Genie+, then the Lightning Lane will not take a lot of capacity, and Standby will move relatively quickly.
- But if 70% of guests buy Genie+ then Standby queues will just crawl along like they used to. (Sites like TouringPlans have long reported that FP+ was allocated ~70% of capacity for most rides).
So if adoption is low, buying Genie+ might give you a real advantage versus the old FP+ system. But if adoption is high, you're stuck paying more money for less value than you had before, only because the alternative is even worse.
Good for: Disney's profitability; guests willing to pay for it (if adoption is low)
Bad for: guests who don't buy it; guests who do buy it (if adoption is high); locals/APs
Removal of top-tier attractions / Separate up-charge
Again, the actual guest up-take for these add-on LLPs will make a big difference to how this plays out.
Completely eliminating FP/LL for top-tier attractions would increase the throughput of the Standby queues. That would theoretically reduce wait times for Standby. We can have long arguments about whether that's a good strategy or not, and whether the induced demand would just cancel out the increased throughput altogether. But it's arguably not insane.
But with the addition of the individual Lighting Lane Pass, some of that throughput will be taken back out, driving Standby waits back up for those unwilling or unable to pay the up-charge.
- If guest up-take is low, and only 10% of capacity goes to the Lightning Lane, the impact is basically similar to eliminating FP+, for good or for ill.
- If guest up-take is high, and 70% of capacity goes to the Lightning Lane, we're back to the wait time dynamic we had with FP+, just a little bit poorer.
So again: if adoption is low, this scheme can provide some benefit to those willing to pay for it. But if up-take is high, it ends up providing the same value as the old FP+ but at substantial additional cost.
Not everybody can be at the front of the line.
In particular, depending on how much capacity sets aside for Rise of the Resistance it could become de facto necessary to pay to ride. If enough guests are willing to pay for access to take 90% of capacity, Disney will give 90% of capacity to paying guests and only 10% for boarding group lotteries. This could get ugly.
Good for: Disney's profitability; guests willing to pay for it (if adoption is low)
Bad for: guests who don't buy it; guests who do buy it (if adoption is high); anybody hoping to ride RotR for free.
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Personally I prefer the shift to one-at-a-time day-of booking, because even though I benefited from the old scheme I think this model is more fair and provides a better day-of guest experience, especially for casual / once-in-a-lifetime guests.
I find the up-charge schemes to be an ugly cash-grab that likely won't deliver on the promises about an improved guest experience -- but WILL deliver more of our dollars to Disney's coffers.
Ultimately we'll need to see what guest up-take looks like and how much capacity Disney devotes to these Lightning Lanes to see how it looks in the real-world. How many will purchase? Will they offer it for free to on-site guests at some point? Or even Deluxe/DVC only?
The best-case scenario for guests is that up-take is minimal, so paying guests gain a real advantage for their dollars at minimal expense to the rest. But that doesn't align with Disney's profit motive, so... I'm not particularly enthusiastic