Disney Film divisions in Trouble?

[Peter Pirate]

It is often reported or stated here that Disney no longer has the talent or ability to make movies the way they once did but I have to ask is this characterization justified?

Certainly Atlantis and Treasure Planet didn't hit their mark, but Lilo and Stitch did and although Pearl Harbor and Gangs of New York were well short of expectations they still made profits in the final analysis.

As for the current space in time, Disney is ruling the roost owning an 18.9% market share compared to Sony's 13.3% in second and this does not take into account the other Disney studios Miramax which currently owns a 4.8% share or Dimension's 1.5% share! Further, with some big movies yet to be released (Brother Bear, Hildalgo, Alamo), Disney could add to this gap with some success.

So, how is it that a studio that supposedly carries so little clout in Hollywood that "no one" wants to work at it and is reportedly so inept and talent-less can find itself in this current situation???

Current stats on Disney movies in release show Finding Nemo up to 327M (12 weeks-while not made by Disney they are certainly reaping the fruits of their distribution labors); Pirates Of The Carribean up to 247,953M (6 weeks) with long legs it is now making a serious run at Matrix2 for the number two spot behind Nemo for the year; Spy Kids 3-D at 96,845M (a nifty 34M profit already after 4 weeks-100M for this movie would have to be considered HUGE!); and Freaky Friday at 57,923 (with a 13M profit after ONLY 2 weeks).

What do you think? Division in trouble and just lucky or just doing what they are supposed to do?

 

[ArcticWildMan]

Take away Nemo, and you could argue that Disney has had a horrible summer.

Nemo was a gift, ala Pixar, that saved Disney's bacon IMO.

I enjoyed POC, but I think the movie would have done much better if they hadn't toned it down so much to make it PG-13.

Spy kids 3D doesn't appeal to my two little ones, and they loved the first two spy-kids movies.


If the previews to Haunted Mansion are any indication, I'd say that Disney just got lucky this summer and future releases look pretty lame. Haunted Mansion is going to be a huge disappointment I'll bet.

 

[Bob O]

I think the success of Nemo(not a disney movie though disney does profit from pixar's success) does make the results look far more positive than they might have otherwise been.
But i do think disney has had a very succesful summer and POTC was a excellant movie. Im not as hopeful as Peter for the success of upcoming movies like Big Brother which has bomb potential and westerns like Hildalgo dont tend to be major money earners as evidenced by the Open Range which has received from what i have seen good reviews, or Alamo which was neutered of Russell Crowe/Ron Howard.
But the moive business is cyclical so you can't rest on your laurels much.

 

[Eeyore2U]

Mr Pirate,

The naysayers will always say nay.

 

[MelissathePooh]

I'm going to say that Hidalgo will do pretty well. I saw the trailer and thought it looked really good AND I'll make the same prediction I made for Orlando Blooms role in Pirates - Aragorn (Vigo Mortensen) will draw large female crowds for Hidalgo. Just my thoughts.

I think that Disney - including Pixar - is obviously having a great year and think that momentum will help future films. As far as how low that will last is hard to say, EVERY studio has its major ups and majors and trends, but I think that things look good.

 

[Another Voice]

"Freaky Friday at 57,923 (with a 13M profit after ONLY 2 weeks)."

Profit?

Tsk tsk, Mr. Pirate.

You know so much better than that. This comes off as nearly insulting.

 

[Peter Pirate]

Eliminate Nemo from Disney's box office and it falls to second,
but just 27M behind Sony...But again this doesn't include any numbers from Disney's other studios, which if added in still puts them on top. But I don't think there is any reason to view Disney without the Nemo figures as although it was made out of house we don't really know how many pictures (from all studios) are made this way. I seem to remember Voice saying that the Disney hit Holes was also brought to Disney, as well...So probably this is very common.

My family is optimistically awaiting Haunted Mansion. I am aware that Eddie Murphey movies are very hit or miss, but this looks fun. I also think Brother Bear, with Phil Collins' music and a tried and true storyline will be successful. I think Hildalgo looks good as well. Certainly any or all of these could tank, but with one or two successes Disney pretty much has a gurantee of a stellar 2003.

As to my HM comments, I want to say that I was very skeptical of POC (the whole concept) initially. But I became excited with the trailers (much how I feel about HM) and I now can say that POC is the very first movie I have ever paid twice to go to a theatre and see...Hopefully HM will be just as entertaining...

 

[Peter Pirate]

Mr. Voice...I didn't exactly know how to state it but I knew "profit" would get your attention at least. Care to expound as I always find your input in this realm enlightening...

 

[d-r]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/


They count Dimension (Spy Kids3d) and Miramax separately.

Subtract out 327.7 for Finding Nemo and add in 96.8 for spy kids, and you'd have 844.9, gosh, still #1 on that list, huh.

I'm sure someone will post that those figures are falsified or stupid, so let's go ahead and break it down with the 11 films released from Disney this year (2003)

movie / total box office to date / cost production-ads * in $1,000
1. Jungle Book 2 / 47.9 / 20 - 20
2. Shanghai Knights / 60.5 / 50 - 25
3. The Recruit / 52.8 / ? - ?
4. Piglet's Big Movie / 23.1 / ? - ?
5. Bringing Down The House / 132.7 / 33 - 28.
6. Ghosts of the Abyss / 13.8 / ? - ? (IMAX)
7. Holes / 67.4 / 20 - 20 APRIL
Summer starts around here somewhere
8. Lizzie McGuire / 42.7 / 17 - 17 MAY
9. Finding Nemo 327.7 / 90 - 40
10. Pirates of Caribbean / 247.9 / 140 - 40
11. Freaky Friday / 57.9 / 20 - 25
12. Open Range / 14.1 / 22 - 20 (supposedly Costner came up with 16, Disney the rest)
plus
13. Dimension's Spy Kids 3d / 96.8 / 38 - 25

We all know that the studio splits with the theaters in various arrangements, typically such that the studio gets a higher percentage early in release, with the theaters getting a higher percentage as time goes on, we also recognize that this is only domestic box office, does not include international (which is also split), or dvd / video rental / sales (where the real money is made). This also isn't breaking down 8 films from Miramax in 2003, mostly smaller art house type films, with mostly low budgets and limited releases, but I don't have the information about most of the budgets - I think it is pretty unimportant, really, if anyone cares enough to prove differently, go for it.

So, anyway, how could one argue that Disney has had a horrible summer, apart from Nemo? I don't see it.

Does anyone want to do that for Sony, Universal, Fox, Paramount, WB? Could be interesting -

DR

 

[hopemax]

Shanghi Knights, and The Recruit were done by Spyglass Entertainment. But Spyglass isn't renewing it's distribution contract with Disney; they signed a distribution deal with Dreamworks at the end of 2002. Previously, Spyglass had produced "The Sixth Sense," "Shanghi Noon," "Count of Monte Cristo," "Reign of Fire," "Keeping the Faith." Some of those worked out quite well for Disney.

That horse is no longer in Disney's barn, Pixar is a question mark, how confident do you feel about Disney's in-house animation department? The Weinstiens over at Miramax have shown signs of being unhappy with Disney (they hired Bert Fields to represent them in a royalties disagreement with Disney).

Jerry Bruckheimer is apparently happy doing business with Disney, but his movies seem to have high production costs, which decreases Disney's profit margin. And recent articles say that Bruckheimer gets at least 7% off the top now, so what may his new contract look like? And is that really the best for Disney?

Don't these things make your neck tickle a bit? Or at least, isn't it understandable why it makes mine tickle?

Disney has had a very good 2003, but the future of the studio extends beyond this year. You know the saying, "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst." I know you guys have the "hope for the best" part down, how well do you feel Disney is "prepared for the worst" (ie Pixar and Miramax join Spyglass and don't renew their contracts)?

 

[Peter Pirate]

I don't disagree with your comments Hope, but my main point is that Disney is rarely given any credit for its up side. We hear comments like "their animation department is finished" yet Lilo & Stitch was very well received and the prospects for a successful Brother Bear are at least possible. Most people saw the failure of Treasure Planet to be the target audience (yong boys) rather than a pitiful artistic flop as seemed more the case with Atlantis.

Pearl Harbor's criticisim rang through to affect Gangs of New York it seemed...Let me try an analogy, during a championship run, say a Super Bowl season, do we ever find the main thrust of talk, conversation and internet chatter to be the fact that the team has three free agents and some aging veterans that could cause problems NEXT season? In the midst of a great year? During the run that will make that team #1? ... Not a chance. The fans, owners and participansts alike should and do bask in the glory of a victorious season and not speculate on the future until the future is niegh. Shouldn't our reviews and views of all things Disney be the same? After all, before next season, the free agents could decide that defending a championship is more important that changing teams, the rookies may develop faster during the championship run making the retiring vets less problematic. My point is that its always in flux. AV tells us that in Hollywood you're only dealing with the present and Disney's present in film making seems pretty good.

Hope springs eternal and while it's true that Disney has a battle with Pixar, the articles shared around here so far seem to indicate a new agreement in the offing.

The Weinsteins are a bit cantankerous, but it seems they have always been that way. Has Disney done anything to drive them away? And much like Pixar who would they go to that could serve as a better partner?

Bruckheimer and other movie maker deals. This is certainly a reality but doesn't every single studio face the same dilemma and aren't they forced to make the same concessions?

I think Disney has learned (again) that they can make a lot from the low budget family movie, done well. I think they've realized that all big features can't be Titanic and I think the future direction of their animation just may lie in the success of Brother Bear (which is a little spine tingling)...

 

[d-r]

Hope- there's a great big beautiful tomorrow, waiting at the end of every day.

No, my neck isn't tickling.

DR

Or maybe I meant "now is the time"

 

[d-r]

Hope,
I forgot to post, but I meant to, that I don't mind seeing "spyglass" go, I wouldn't mind seeing miramax go, and I would really, really, really like to see Diminsions go. Soon. Now. Yesterday.

 

[RyMickey]

It seems like once again, no one can be happy. Disney has been successful with all their movies this summer, and although a "profit" may not have been met as of yet with certain movies, Disney's success with low-budget pics ("Lizzie McGuire," "Freaky Friday") which will find great success on video/DVD in conjunction with their major blockbuster "Pirates" (which will also be a huge moneymaker this Christmas on DVD) have provided Disney with an excellent summer. Why complain? These three movies alone are at least something to smile about. . .even if you don't consider the tremendous success of "Finding Nemo."

True, other studios may not have had debacles as bad as "Gigli," but even big-budget pics like "Bad Boys II," "The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen," "Tomb Raider 2," "Terminator 3," "Charlie's Angels 2," "The Hulk," and "Hollywood Homicide" have yet to even recoup their costs. For every "Bruce Almighty" or "X2" there was one of the above "losers" for their respective studios.

While Disney may not have released a boatload of films this summer, they all acheived some success. Even "Open Range" was made on a minimal budget and should end up recouping its money. Word of mouth seems to be quite good on the flick, as well.

I'm probably rambling and since I don't post often for all I know this post could just be skipped by many of you regulars, but I just don't understand how certain people on these boards always seem to have a problem with Disney for the sole reason that they don't want to appear to be "shifting cars." Disney isn't perfect, but I think that it's important to realize when they succeed.

RyMickey