We have an upcoming trip planned for 7 days. I made 5 ADRs for TS and then tried to calculate what we would spend out of pocket for those TS meals not counting gratuity but counting tax. It came out to about $480 for 5 meals -- two character meals, the fantasmic dinner package, and two other TS meals (Biergarten and Whispering Canyon).
The cost of the dining plan for the same 7 days would be about $755. So, for the extra $275 we would get: 2 TS meals, 28 counter service meals, and 28 snacks. I can't imagine we'll actually eat all those desserts, or even 28 snacks. But in looking it over, it does seem to me as though I'm getting a much better bargain by getting the DDP even if we just get 1 counter service per day for five days.
The math is really being affected by the fact that we're going in July. Disney now charges a premium for character meals during the summer, which jacks up the cost of all that table service if we go out of pocket. But, for
DVC members, there is no seasonal premium added to the dining plan.
Still haven't decided, but I'm having a hard time seeing the downside to the DP. I guess we could be losing value if we don't add in those 2 TS meals. And, frankly, I'm not thinking I want table service every day. At a minimum, though, we could use them for room service, which is not something we would ever do otherwise. At a minimum, I will use most of those counter service meals, and the ability to just grab a bottle of water with a snack credit whenever we want in the park seems like it will add up over time and make it worth it.