DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[BrianL]

That's part of it. I think they need to stop releasing new movies on streaming so quickly after theatre release. They need to go back to how they used to do it. New movies don't go to streaming for 8 months to a year.

But they have also got to get those budgets down. Any way you slice it, if you spend close to half-a-billion dollars on making a movie, your odds of actually making profit are low. Those high times with multiple huge blockbusters a year were a bubble - and it has burst. There might be a few films that can eek out a Billion - Avatar, Star Wars maybe - but they have to come to terms with the fact that most movies won't and spend accordingly.

 

[wabbott]

Anyway you slice it, if you spend close to half-a-billion dollars on making a movie, your odds of actually making profit are low.

This, 10X.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/ot...s-year-it-s-the-summer-of-sequels/ar-BB1n19iU

Last Year We Had ‘Barbenheimer.’ This Year It’s the Summer of Sequels.
The frenzy over ‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer’ showed that moviegoers are ready for something new. The industry got the message. But moviemaking takes years.

By Robbie Whelan and Francesca Fontana
Updated May 25, 2024 - 12:00 am EDT

Last summer, Barbie and her high-heeled friends saved Hollywood—with a little help from J. Robert Oppenheimer and his atomic bomb.

The “Barbenheimer” frenzy pumped nearly $2.5 billion into the pockets of studios and theater owners, giving the industry reason to feel like the movie business was back in a big way, despite threats like the rise of streaming, the aftermath of Covid-19 and twin strikes that paralyzed the movie business for months. It showed that audiences are hungry for fresh stories, and willing to spend their money on creative, risky bets if they’re done right.

So what is Hollywood doing this summer? It’s releasing a bunch of sequels.

“Bad Boys: Ride or Die,” the fourth movie in the buddy-cop series, comes out in June. In the 1995 original, star Will Smith, now 55, was in his mid-20s. “Despicable Me 4,” is actually the sixth in the franchise, including the two “Minions” movies.

“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” is the fifth in a franchise that began in 1979 and was set in an imagined near-future dystopia. The most-anticipated movie of the summer is “Deadpool & Wolverine,” the third “Deadpool” movie featuring Ryan Reynolds in the title role.

It might look as if the movie industry didn’t learn its lesson, but that’s not what’s going on. Movies take years to make under the best of circumstances, making it hard for studios to quickly pivot based on the lightning-in-a-bottle success of a few big hits.

 

[HokieRaven5]

It’s possible there won’t be a $100M opening 3 day weekend at the domestic box office until July with Deadpool & Wolverine. At that point it’ll have been a year since the last film to hit that mark.

Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 have a chance, but seem to be more like they may just come close.

 

[clarker99]

Paradigm shifts are hard. Everyone thought cable would crater with DTC taking over but the studios and theatres are the ones taking the brunt of it.

Dune 2 just had a pretty darn good run at the box office and it got less than 80 days. They cant keep that in theatres for 6 more months and make no money. And why would a theatre use a space for 2 people to watch it 8 months later? Where is the financial benefit? Digital and licensing are far better options.

 

[clarker99]

But they have also got to get those budgets doen. Anyway you slice it, if you spend close to half-a-billion dollars on making a movie, your odds of actually making profit are low. Those high times with multiple huge blockbusters a year were a bubble - and it has burst. There might be a few films that can eek out a Billion - Avatar, Star Wars maybe - but they have to come to terms with the fact that most movies won't and spend accordingly.

The goal is now to hopefully break-even and use feature films as expensive adverts to promote your streaming service.

I honestly think studios are going to have to settle into a longer term pattern of theatres making less money. Society has changed, unless you pick your time very carefully its hard to find a theatre in which no one is talking or going on their phone. I used to have a season pass to the cinema and now I wait for home release.

Tickets sales have been in decline for 20 years. Theatres have tried re-creating the home living room in the theatre, It hasnt worked. It just isnt as appealing as sitting on your home couch for a fraction of the price and all the content you could want at your finger tips. Plus, you can be on your phone or pause or switch shows if you are not happy. Etc etc etc. The writing has been on the wall for years, covid just fast tracked it.

 

[Jrb1979]

Paradigm shifts are hard. Everyone thought cable would crater with DTC taking over but the studios and theatres are the ones taking the brunt of it.

Dune 2 just had a pretty darn good run at the box office and it got less than 80 days. They cant keep that in theatres for 6 more months and make no money. And why would a theatre use a space for 2 people to watch it 8 months later? Where is the financial benefit? Digital and licensing are far better options.

There has to be a better way than what they are doing now. I feel a lot of the reason box office numbers are low is due to how quickly studios make new movies available on streaming after release. Most people will wait to get "free" over paying to see it at a theatre.

Why can't do what they did during COVID and make new releases pay per view for the first while. At least then it's still making some profit.

 

[mdmost]

Why can't do what they did during COVID and make new releases pay per view for the first while. At least then it's still making some profit.

That cuts theater owners and operators off at the knees. The studios still need them.

I think it has to come down to cutting back massively on movie budgets. Though that's a bit of the dog chasing its tail. Everything is now so heavily reliant on CGI that there's no way to truly drop those budgets to what's necessary without quality looking even worse.

 

[Jrb1979]

That cuts theater owners and operators off at the knees. The studios still need them.

I think it has to come down to cutting back massively on movie budgets. Though that's a bit of the dog chasing its tail. Everything is now so heavily reliant on CGI that there's no way to truly drop those budgets to what's necessary without quality looking even worse.

I'm saying release it to theatres first but when it gets released to streaming make it pay per view for the rest of the year.

 

[wabbott]

FWIW, here is what the Hollywood rags are writing:

https://deadline.com/2024/05/box-office-furiosa-garfield-memorial-day-1235938017/

‘Furiosa’ Up In Smoke With $31M-$33M, Possibly Lowest Memorial Day Opening In 41 Years, Might Get Clawed By ‘Garfield’: How Worried Should Hollywood Be About Theatrical? – Saturday Update
By Anthony D'Alessandro
May 25, 2024 - 8:12am PDT

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/furiosa-mad-max-opening-day-garfield-1236016001/

May 25, 2024 - 8:03am PDT
Box Office: ‘Furiosa’ Off to Slow Start With $10.2 Million Opening Day, ‘Garfield’ Dines on $8.4 Million
by Kim J. Murphy

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/m...ffice-garfield-worst-memorial-day-1235909084/

Box Office Meltdown: ‘Furiosa’ or ‘Garfield Movie’ to Win Memorial Day With Worst No. 1 Opening in 30 Years
The bad news doesn't end there: overall revenue for the four-day holiday could hit a 25-year low.
May 25, 2024 - 8:40am by Pamela McClintock

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/furiosa-set-box-office-lowest-150650684.html

‘Furiosa’ Set to Be the Box Office’s Lowest No. 1 Memorial Day Film in 29 Years
by Jeremy Fuster
Sat, May 25, 2024 at 10:06 AM CDT·

 

[HokieRaven5]

On pace for the opening domestic weekend of The Little Mermaid from last year to outgross the entire slate of movies from the weekend this year.

 

[clarker99]

There has to be a better way than what they are doing now. I feel a lot of the reason box office numbers are low is due to how quickly studios make new movies available on streaming after release. Most people will wait to get "free" over paying to see it at a theatre.

Why can't do what they did during COVID and make new releases pay per view for the first while. At least then it's still making some profit.

Record stores are extinct, blockbuster is extinct, arcades are extinct. Streaming is cutting out cable providers. Media/entertainment of all types are cutting out the middle man. Theatres are likely to go away too. At some point a DTC pay per view option will probably out generate box office.

 

[Jrb1979]

Record stores are extinct, blockbuster is extinct, arcades are extinct. Streaming is cutting out cable providers. Media/entertainment of all types are cutting out the middle man. Theatres are likely to go away too. At some point a DTC pay per view option will probably out generate box office.

I'm not disagreeing with that. They should have been doing pay per view since day 1 for new releases on top of the box office.

 

[clarker99]

I'm not disagreeing with that. They should have been doing pay per view since day 1 for new releases on top of the box office.

I think that day is closer than most think.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

Can we PLEASE stop slandering cinemas/movie theatres, because of streaming, for once? Streaming should be replacing cable TV, not the moviegoing experience.

 

[mdmost]

Record stores are extinct, blockbuster is extinct, arcades are extinct. Streaming is cutting out cable providers. Media/entertainment of all types are cutting out the middle man. Theatres are likely to go away too. At some point a DTC pay per view option will probably out generate box office.

This is very untrue. Are they as abundant as before? No. You can find them all over again because of vinyl's return to prominence. Vinyl records have continually outpaced CDs for physical sales and have actually propped up the recording industry and helped a ton of artists. When the most commercially successful artist is selling 10 different variants of her records (Taylor Swift), it helps all of the boats rise. Record stores are doing really well now. Record Store Day is the vinyl store's Black Friday.

And arcades have returned in large part due to nostalgia combined with now you can get beer at most of them. My kids love to go to Freeplay here in DFW. Are they as popular as X-Box or Playstation, no. But they speak to people who still want the experience of going somewhere to be entertained. Just like with movie theaters.

 

[mdmost]

Can we PLEASE stop slandering cinemas/movie theatres, because of streaming, for once? Streaming should be replacing cable TV, not the moviegoing experience.

True but it was always going to be a by-product for some people who no longer wish to go to the theaters. Before, those people would just wait for home video release. The cost of going to movies is part of the problem. Movie houses have got to start realizing that and cut their costs as well.

 

[clarker99]

This is very untrue. Are they as abundant as before? No. You can find them all over again because of vinyl's return to prominence. Vinyl records have continually outpaced CDs for physical sales and have actually propped up the recording industry and helped a ton of artists. When the most commercially successful artist is selling 10 different variants of her records (Taylor Swift), it helps all of the boats rise. Record stores are doing really well now. Record Store Day is the vinyl store's Black Friday.

And arcades have returned in large part due to nostalgia combined with now you can get beer at most of them. My kids love to go to Freeplay here in DFW. Are they as popular as X-Box or Playstation, no. But they speak to people who still want the experience of going somewhere to be entertained. Just like with movie theaters.

C’mon, man. Nostalgia driven niche markets are not how the masses consume music or video games. Yes, they exist but it isn’t even remotely close to how it was. Just because a few exist doesn’t mean artists are making any real amount of money off them.

You can still find places selling video games but how far are we from from download only? Not far. And will video games stores still exist? Yeah. But it will be a nostalgia driven niche market. Most will move on.

Theatres will become a similar niche. Some will exist and maybe make some money but it will not be how Studios make their money in the future.

 

[Jrb1979]

I think that day is closer than most think.

Then the studios should start the pay per view model now. First year it should be $20 to rent for the weekend

 

[Elijah Abrams]

True but it was always going to be a by-product for some people who no longer wish to go to the theaters. Before, those people would just wait for home video release. The cost of going to movies is part of the problem. Movie houses have got to start realizing that and cut their costs as well.

C’mon, man. Nostalgia driven niche markets are not how the masses consume music or video games. Yes, they exist but it isn’t even remotely close to how it was. Just because a few exist doesn’t mean artists are making any real amount of money off them.

You can still find places selling video games but how far are we from from download only? Not far. And will video games stores still exist? Yeah. But it will be a nostalgia driven niche market. Most will move on.

Theatres will become a similar niche. Some will exist and maybe make some money but it will not be how Studios make their money in the future.

Then the studios should start the pay per view model now. First year it should be $20 to rent for the weekend

Sooner or later, the studios (except Disney) will have to realize that their push for streaming isn’t going to work, because it is causing them to lose money. Leave the streaming service thing to Netflix, Amazon, Apple, and Disney+.